Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backward in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with three trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, while leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
TIME CONTEXT AND STRATEGY
Welcome to the mid-way point of the fantasy football regular season! With seven matchups in the books, and at least seven more on the horizon, now is a great time to take a step back and analyze your dynasty rosters. Is your team a contender or a pretender? Is it over-achieving or is there upside for the second half? Are you setting your sights on a trophy, or on Caleb Williams or Marvin Harrison Jr?
It’s also a great time to analyze the rest of your league. Identifying the “tanking” teams, and the teams that will be contending for a title is important in mid-season trading. Contending teams should be trading with the rebuilding teams and vice-versa. Beware of trading with like-minded teams, as you may be assisting them on their path to a championship or the number one pick, and hurting your own chances at those prizes.
CONTENDER BUY
Javonte Williams, RB DEN
Things haven’t changed much in Denver, despite Russell Wilson’s year two at altitude and the hiring of Sean Payton. The Broncos offense still looks slow and ineffective, and the losses are starting to pile up. Through seven games, Payton has the same record as Nathaniel Hackett did last season, 2-5.
Sean Payton just lost to Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets.
These were Payton's comments before the season… pic.twitter.com/xgDw0E6kGB
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) October 8, 2023
With the offensive struggles, the dynasty values of players like Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, and Javonte Williams have plummeted. It’s a buying opportunity for these players, especially when that player is young, ascending in his career, and finally getting back to full strength coming off of a major injury. For this exercise, we’re looking at running back Javonte Williams.
At 59.75, Williams’ October Dynasty ADP is lower than it has been since before he was drafted in 2021. A former top ten pick has nearly fallen outside of the top five rounds. There is a good reason for that though, as Williams has been horrible this season. Through the first six weeks of the season, he failed to go over 10 PPR points in any game. He has yet to find the end zone and he was forced to sit out a game with a quad injury. He is the 34th overall running back in PPR scoring this season, and 41st in points per game with just 8.3. Jaleel McLaughlin has outscored Williams this season and Perine is just 2.4 points behind him. Dynasty managers have been dealing with his injury woes for two full seasons already. Now that he is finally on the field, he isn’t living up to expectations. Many could be ready to move on.
There is some hope for optimism after his performance in week seven. Williams saw a majority of the snaps for the first time all season. He hit season highs in attempts, yards and yards per carry. The Broncos have been slow to ramp up Williams coming off of his ACL injury, and then his quad injury. In week seven, he got 19 opportunities (McLaughlin and Perine combined for 12), scored 12.6 fantasy points and finished as a top-20 running back.
Broncos backfield by snaps played:
Javonte Williams: 29
Samaje Perine: 13
Jaleel McLaughlin: 10— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 22, 2023
Digging deeper into the week seven stats for Williams, Pro Football Focus gave Javonte Williams a rushing grade of 81.2 for the week, the highest single-game grade he’s ever received from the charting company. He also ran for 4.6 yards after contact per attempt and forced six missed tackles, both of them season-highs for Williams.
Williams was a dynasty darling in his rookie season, but injuries and offensive woes have forced his career to take a step back. Now, with his value lower than it’s ever been, and his health finally coming back into form, Williams could be on the cusp of a post-hype breakout season. At a deflated price tag, a contending team could pick up a weekly starter with the upside to push that team over the edge in a championship run.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Javonte Williams = Marvin Mims and 2024 third-round pick
For these exercises, I’m going to focus on trades that will work for a contending team trading with a rebuilding team. As I described above, this is the easiest way to make win-win trades at this point of the dynasty season. This is an interesting trade, because in the Trade Analyzer, it looks like a big win for the team getting Williams. The Analyzer uses our Expert Rankings to determine trade values, and Williams is ranked over 40 spots higher than Marvin Mims. But, when you look at the difference in ADP, public sentiment for Mims is much higher than our expert consensus. In October Dynasty ADP, he went an average of four picks later than Williams. The public loves Marvin Mims for dynasty and have inflated his value into the sixth round of startup drafts, but with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton on the team, Mims is unlikely to start for a contending team in 2023.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Javonte Williams = Kyle Pitts
Pitts is an obvious target for a rebuilding team, but he may continue to be a headache for years to come. He is likely stuck in this Atlanta offense until the end of the 2025 season, assuming the team picks up his fifth-year option and doesn’t trade him. He has been coming on a bit lately, but he’s impossible to trust. Arthur Smith refuses to make him a key piece of the offense and Desmond Ridder holds the entire team from reaching its full potential. A contending team doesn’t need Pitts to win a championship this season, and Williams should plug right into an RB2 or flex spot. It’s a good time to sell Pitts before his value falls any lower.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Javonte Williams and Travis Kelce = Chris Olave
This trade is not a fun one to pull off, but it will help you win a championship in 2023 as long as everyone stays healthy. Chris Olave is an outstanding young talent at wide receiver and has a long career of success ahead of him, traffic incidents aside. He’s a very good piece for a contending team this season, but his future value outweighs his present value. Derek Carr is struggling under center, and Olave’s production is up and down because of it. Kelce should absolutely not be wasting away on a rebuilding roster. He’s an elite player, he dominates the position and, unless Taylor Swift can pull a Yoko Ono, he doesn’t seem close to retirement. It is painful to lose Olave, but not as painful as coming up just short in a championship run.
REBUILDER BUY
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
There are plenty of options for rebuilding teams to go out and acquire right now from contending teams. You can target injured players like Anthony Richardson or Mike Williams. You can go after a disappointing rookie like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or an up-and-coming player coming off of a bad week, like Jameson Williams. All of these are great options, and you just need to find the team in your league that is contending and needs an extra boost from your roster.
McLaurin is a really nice piece to add to a rebuilding dynasty team right now. He is young and extremely talented, but he is stuck on a bad team, with a bad quarterback and a lackluster offense. He is quietly still the WR20 this season, but he hasn’t had any booming, headliner weeks. He’s a good under-the-radar pickup whose future should be better than his present situation.
McLaurin saw a major dip in October Dynasty Rankings, and it’s the lowest it’s been since before he was drafted. There is panic out there about his lack of production this season, bringing his price tag down. If you believe in him, he can be had for cheap in dynasty.
Sam Howell hasn’t earned the starting quarterback position beyond this year yet, and it’s likely that Ron Rivera, and maybe even Eric Bienemy, are not involved with this team next year. McLaurin has been relatively QB-proof, but he’s struggling to get into the end zone so far this season. He only has two end zone targets this season, that number clearly needs to improve.
Terry McLaurin: "We're hurting ourselves. … If you want a chance … to have a rhythm, you got to make the routine plays. You have to be able to execute at a higher level (or) you're shooting yourself in the foot. It's hard to play against yourself and the opponent."
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) October 22, 2023
McLaurin seems very frustrated with the Washington offense this season, a sentiment he shares with Commanders fans and fantasy football managers. Hopefully Bienemy can take F1’s advice, simplify the offense, and get the ball to his best offensive weapon. Until that happens, he makes more sense on a rebuilding team than a contending one.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Terry McLaurin = Joe Mixon and DeAndre Hopkins
This trade offloads some aging veterans who are certainly on the downturn of their career, Joe Mixon and DeAndre Hopkins. Both players have disappointed so far this season, but a contending team needs depth to make a championship run, and Mixon and Hopkins both have the upside to be in championship lineups. After this season, they’re both cut candidates and could find themselves in reserve roles if they find new teams. The future is bleak for these two, but the present shows potential. A rebuilding team should move on from Mixon and Hopkins and try to get a player like Terry McLaurin.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Terry McLaurin = Derrick Henry
The writing is on the wall that Henry is in his final season of high-end dynasty value and production. He’s been splitting the carries and snaps nearly down the middle with rookie Tyjae Spears, who has looked really good when he’s got an opportunity. While Spears may have some long-term concerns, it isn’t hard to imagine the Titans moving on from Henry after this season and handing the reins to Spears. Henry can be a free agent at the end of this season and his 30th birthday is in January. Meanwhile, a contender can absolutely use Henry as a high-end running back asset this year. He is the number 15 running back in PPR, and has looked more efficient and explosive in recent weeks. In two of the last three weeks, he’s scored and gone over 20 PPR points. Any team that has Henry and doesn’t have a chance to win this season needs to move on, and McLaurin is a nice target to help you in the future.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore and Tyjae Spears = Christian McCaffrey
A rebuilding team with McCaffrey is holding the golden goose in dynasty right now and needs to cash in. Despite the age, injuries and general wear and tear McCaffrey has gone through in his career, he is still the best running back in the league and extremely valuable for dynasty. If you’re looking to trade McCaffrey, be sure to create a bidding war in your league and take the highest offer. In this trade, the rebuilding team gets three players who should be every week starters for them next season. That’s a great way to speed up a rebuilding process and gives you the opportunity to compete as early as 2024. Getting McCaffrey off of your team will also help your draft spot for next year, as he can win fantasy matchups by himself at times. It’s horrible to lose a player like McCaffrey, but it is the smart move if you’re in a dynasty rebuild.
SUMMARY
This is a great time of year for trading. Player values have adjusted since the offseason and team contexts have been established. It’s easier to find players that you believe are buy low or sell high now that you’ve seen them on the field. Identify your goals for the season, find areas of weakness, and communicate with the other teams in your league. Just make sure that every move you make gets you closer to your ultimate goal for the season and for the future.
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Three - September 16, 2024
- Seven Players Who Exploded onto the Dynasty Radar in Week One - September 10, 2024
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Two - September 9, 2024
