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2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Carolina Panthers

Marshall
Terrace Marshall
Kevin White Posted On July 4, 2023
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Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the Carolina Panthers…

RISER: Jonathan Mingo, WR

The Panthers are an intriguing proposition from a dynasty perspective: a team rebuilding under first-year head coach Frank Reich, led by cornerstone rookie quarterback Bryce Young. With a new regime comes significant change: Young comes in as the projected long-term starter at quarterback, the addition of free agent running back Miles Sanders from the Philadelphia Eagles, the signing of veteran tight end Hayden Hurst from the Cincinnati Bengals and the bolstering of a wide receiver core through the additions of Adam Thielen and DJ Chark.

The player I’m highlighting as a riser in dynasty is another wide receiver, in the form of incoming rookie Mingo.

Current Market Value (ADP/Rankings)

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.11.17

June 2023 DLF ADP – Superflex WR.

Mingo is a second-round rookie (pick 39) from the 2023 NFL Draft, the second draft pick of the new regime in Carolina. An underrated prospect coming out of Ole Miss, he gained momentum in the build-up to the draft, receiving better-than-expected draft capital. He’s an interesting prospect as a physical specimen (6’1”, 226lbs, 4.46 40 time – per Player Profiler), who underperformed from a production standpoint in college.

He’s currently being drafted around proven aging veterans and upside younger players – making him a viable pivot move to get younger at the position or an opportunity to roll the dice again on an unknown commodity. He’s currently the rookie WR5, as a wildcard to spike in value and make the jump into the top tier of the current rookie position group.

Future Outlook

Whilst Mingo struggled with production in college, the main pull for him to rise in dynasty value is the excellent draft capital. Reviewing the three previous draft classes, specifically at wide receivers taken in the top 40 draft picks, 66.6% (14/21) of players saw an increase in dynasty value after one season. Of the seven players who saw a decrease in value after one season, three players (DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Michael Pittman) saw an eventual increase above original value, two players (Henry Ruggs and Jalen Reagor) failed to see a value increase and two players (Treylon Burks and Jameson Williams) are still question marks. The seven players who saw an overall value decrease remained relatively stable in terms of value. The data shows that Mingo is a strong bet to see his value increase after one season – with the potential for a value spike above his current valuation in the future.

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.11.25

Of the 21 players who decreased in value after their rookie season: three had an eventual increase, two are only one season into their career with time to improve and two are effectively busts/out of the league.

The first two draft picks under new head coach Reich were foundational quarterback Young and wide receiver Mingo. The opportunity is there to build chemistry as incoming players, both tied down long-term and clearly a big part of the plans for the Panthers. Young was the first overall pick in the draft, which was acquired by trading away the well-regarded DJ Moore and future draft capital. The Panthers have made their intentions very clear – they are all in on Young. If he lives up to expectations he will become a solid to elite-level quarterback – again this would be hugely beneficial to insulating Mingo’s dynasty value.

Lastly, this is a wide-open depth chart with little to no commitment surrounding the other wide receivers on the roster. Thielen is entering his age-33 season – his best days are firmly behind him, although will be a great mentor to Mingo. Chark is signed on a one-year deal and Terrace Marshall has failed to live up to expectations. You can paint the picture that Mingo is the main weapon in an overhauled offense, tied to a potentially elite player in Young, with the insulation of draft capital and ties to being a draft selection of the current coaching staff. All these factors point to Mingo becoming a good bet to see his value rise over his rookie season. The only caveat would be an addition of a solid veteran like DeAndre Hopkins would pump the brakes in a major way for the rookie’s dynasty stock.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Mingo has been easily accessible in the second round of rookie drafts, usually falling in the early to middle parts of round two. In terms of current trades from the DLF Trade Finder, here are a couple of recent trades where Mingo has been acquired, prior to the value spike predicted above:

In terms of the DLF Trade Analyzer, here are a couple of trade ideas to acquire Mingo before the expected value spike predicted above:

  • Kadarius Toney and 2024 third-round pick for Jonathan Mingo and 2025 second-round pick
  • 2024 second-round pick and 2024 fourth-round pick for Jonathan Mingo and 2024 third-round pick
  • Gabriel Davis and 2025 fourth-round pick for Jonathan Mingo and 2024 fourth-round pick

FALLER: Terrace Marshall, WR

Marshall was part of the all-star national champion LSU Tigers team of 2019 – sharing a field with the likes of current dynasty round-one picks in Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. It was always going to be a stretch for all skill players on that elite offense to translate to quality dynasty assets – in the cases of Marshall and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, it appears their profiles were influenced more by situation than talent at their time with LSU.

Marshall has endured a poor start to his NFL career, on the back of receiving second-round draft capital in 2021. Sampling all wide receivers drafted in round two over the last decade, Marshall ranks 44 out of 50 in terms of receiving yards as a rookie with 138. His second season was an improvement with 490 yards, however the WR88 finish is way below the lofty expectations, which continue to fade the further distance from his college profile.

Current Market Value (ADP/Rankings)

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.11.42

June 2023 DLF ADP – Superflex WR.

Reviewing the group of players currently being drafted around Marshall, it’s a combination of other young dart throws with limited upside and low probability of becoming a regular contributor in the NFL. Also, there are a couple of interesting veterans in Tyler Boyd and Marquez Valdes-Scantling – both linked to explosive offensive situations and elite quarterback play. Based on what Marshall has achieved (or not) in dynasty leagues so far, WR80 feels like a fair range for him. In existing dynasty leagues he is considered an end of the bench type in deeper leagues and a waiver candidate in more shallow leagues.

Future Outlook

Even the biggest Marshall fan will be worried about the future outlook with the Panthers. No ties to the current coaching staff, the addition of multiple wide receivers, and the drafting of a like-for-like replacement in Mingo are all reasons for concern. The hope is that 23-year-old Marshall makes a leap entering his third season, or worst case scenario to follow a similar career arc to the similarly sized DeVante Parker – who had his true breakout in his fifth season in the league.

Marshall is tied down to the Panthers for the next two seasons – meaning the light has to come on or you’re potentially holding a redundant asset until he becomes a free agent in 2025. The hit rate of players who perform this poorly to begin their career is extremely low. I can paint a picture where Mingo ascends and Marshall descends in value as the new look offends takes shape under the guidance of Reich and Young.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Marshall has all the makings of an NFL bust. In terms of current trades from the DLF Trade Finder, here are a couple of recent trades where he has been traded away, prior to the value drop predicted above:

In terms of the market value at the crowd-sourcing website Keep Trade Cut, here are a couple of trade ideas to move on from Marshall before the expected value drop predicted above:

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.12.01

Terrace Marshall could be on the DeVante Parker trajectory, in a best-case scenario… images from Player Profiler.

LONGSHOT: Chuba Hubbard, RB

Path to Relevance

The path to relevance is very simple for a backup running back or one utilized in a split-backfield scenario – injury to the starter creates an increase in volume or efficiency with limited touches combined with a jump in overall offensive output. Hubbard was a well-regarded college prospect (21 TDs and 2,094 rush yards as a sophomore), before a disappointing final season at Oklahoma State University.

He failed to make a huge impact in his first two seasons in the NFL. However, he is in a new regime without the competition of Christian McCaffrey and was sneakily the RB35 in fantasy points as a rookie. Incoming starter Sanders has never hit 17 touches per game in any season, plus the depth chart behind him is wide open (battling an undrafted player with 33 career touches in Raheem Blackshear and a pair of undrafted rookies in Cam Peoples and Tiyon Evans). Hubbard was explosive last season, averaging 4.91 yards per rush and 10.6 yards per reception – an indicator of explosion with potential to maximize limited touches, become fantasy-relevant, and gain in dynasty value.

Any running back on an NFL roster should be on a dynasty roster – where Hubbard is the clear top backup and has untapped potential based on his early college resumé and flashes of explosive touches in the NFL.

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.12.09

Hubbard is the clear backup to Sanders, with room to dominate the split backfield in Carolina – Credit: 4for4.

Case Against Him

The new regime is an opportunity in an improved situation post-Matt Rhule. However, it could also be classed as a negative with no ties to the current head coach Reich, meaning he can be easily replaced whilst on his rookie deal. Considering potential replacements, there are a number of solid veteran players currently on the free agent market at running back, should the Panthers wish to add more insurance to Sanders: Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette etc. Add in the fact that Hubbard was a day-three draft selection in round four of the 2021 NFL Draft – it shows how the league views him and the talent he displayed early in his college career was not considered to fully translate to the pro game.

Finally, the addition of Sanders in free agency is on a deal where he is paid as the tenth-highest running back in the league as per Spotrac – showing a commitment to usage to align with the amount invested in the Panthers’ new asset. Tie in this will be a rookie-QB-led offense with below-average overall weapons, it could work against Hubbard in terms of high-value touches and lack of red-zone opportunity.

Verdict

Hubbard is an intriguing player to roster in dynasty, as someone who can spike in value with a Sanders injury or a better-than-expected usage or efficiency in the new-look Panthers’ offense. He is currently RB63 and pick 206 in DLF June ADP – with clear room for growth and someone who should naturally rise in value with solid usage and if avoiding the free-agent RB landmines currently on the market.

Hubbard needs to be rostered in every dynasty league – as part of a strategy to load bench spots with upside running backs, one injury away from commanding a significant role in an NFL offense. He is a low-risk, moderate upside type play – worst case scenario is a veteran addition which makes him irrelevant, with the flip side of best case scenario he is a starter for an extended period on the back of a Sanders injury and providing an opportunity to pivot after the spike in dynasty value.

Kevin White
Latest posts by Kevin White (see all)

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.

Let’s jump into the Carolina Panthers…

RISER: Jonathan Mingo, WR

The Panthers are an intriguing proposition from a dynasty perspective: a team rebuilding under first-year head coach Frank Reich, led by cornerstone rookie quarterback Bryce Young. With a new regime comes significant change: Young comes in as the projected long-term starter at quarterback, the addition of free agent running back Miles Sanders from the Philadelphia Eagles, the signing of veteran tight end Hayden Hurst from the Cincinnati Bengals and the bolstering of a wide receiver core through the additions of Adam Thielen and DJ Chark.

The player I’m highlighting as a riser in dynasty is another wide receiver, in the form of incoming rookie Mingo.

Current Market Value (ADP/Rankings)

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.11.17

June 2023 DLF ADP – Superflex WR.

Mingo is a second-round rookie (pick 39) from the 2023 NFL Draft, the second draft pick of the new regime in Carolina. An underrated prospect coming out of Ole Miss, he gained momentum in the build-up to the draft, receiving better-than-expected draft capital. He’s an interesting prospect as a physical specimen (6’1”, 226lbs, 4.46 40 time – per Player Profiler), who underperformed from a production standpoint in college.

He’s currently being drafted around proven aging veterans and upside younger players – making him a viable pivot move to get younger at the position or an opportunity to roll the dice again on an unknown commodity. He’s currently the rookie WR5, as a wildcard to spike in value and make the jump into the top tier of the current rookie position group.

Future Outlook

Whilst Mingo struggled with production in college, the main pull for him to rise in dynasty value is the excellent draft capital. Reviewing the three previous draft classes, specifically at wide receivers taken in the top 40 draft picks, 66.6% (14/21) of players saw an increase in dynasty value after one season. Of the seven players who saw a decrease in value after one season, three players (DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Michael Pittman) saw an eventual increase above original value, two players (Henry Ruggs and Jalen Reagor) failed to see a value increase and two players (Treylon Burks and Jameson Williams) are still question marks. The seven players who saw an overall value decrease remained relatively stable in terms of value. The data shows that Mingo is a strong bet to see his value increase after one season – with the potential for a value spike above his current valuation in the future.

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.11.25

Of the 21 players who decreased in value after their rookie season: three had an eventual increase, two are only one season into their career with time to improve and two are effectively busts/out of the league.

The first two draft picks under new head coach Reich were foundational quarterback Young and wide receiver Mingo. The opportunity is there to build chemistry as incoming players, both tied down long-term and clearly a big part of the plans for the Panthers. Young was the first overall pick in the draft, which was acquired by trading away the well-regarded DJ Moore and future draft capital. The Panthers have made their intentions very clear – they are all in on Young. If he lives up to expectations he will become a solid to elite-level quarterback – again this would be hugely beneficial to insulating Mingo’s dynasty value.

Lastly, this is a wide-open depth chart with little to no commitment surrounding the other wide receivers on the roster. Thielen is entering his age-33 season – his best days are firmly behind him, although will be a great mentor to Mingo. Chark is signed on a one-year deal and Terrace Marshall has failed to live up to expectations. You can paint the picture that Mingo is the main weapon in an overhauled offense, tied to a potentially elite player in Young, with the insulation of draft capital and ties to being a draft selection of the current coaching staff. All these factors point to Mingo becoming a good bet to see his value rise over his rookie season. The only caveat would be an addition of a solid veteran like DeAndre Hopkins would pump the brakes in a major way for the rookie’s dynasty stock.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Mingo has been easily accessible in the second round of rookie drafts, usually falling in the early to middle parts of round two. In terms of current trades from the DLF Trade Finder, here are a couple of recent trades where Mingo has been acquired, prior to the value spike predicted above:

In terms of the DLF Trade Analyzer, here are a couple of trade ideas to acquire Mingo before the expected value spike predicted above:

  • Kadarius Toney and 2024 third-round pick for Jonathan Mingo and 2025 second-round pick
  • 2024 second-round pick and 2024 fourth-round pick for Jonathan Mingo and 2024 third-round pick
  • Gabriel Davis and 2025 fourth-round pick for Jonathan Mingo and 2024 fourth-round pick

FALLER: Terrace Marshall, WR

Marshall was part of the all-star national champion LSU Tigers team of 2019 – sharing a field with the likes of current dynasty round-one picks in Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. It was always going to be a stretch for all skill players on that elite offense to translate to quality dynasty assets – in the cases of Marshall and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, it appears their profiles were influenced more by situation than talent at their time with LSU.

Marshall has endured a poor start to his NFL career, on the back of receiving second-round draft capital in 2021. Sampling all wide receivers drafted in round two over the last decade, Marshall ranks 44 out of 50 in terms of receiving yards as a rookie with 138. His second season was an improvement with 490 yards, however the WR88 finish is way below the lofty expectations, which continue to fade the further distance from his college profile.

Current Market Value (ADP/Rankings)

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.11.42

June 2023 DLF ADP – Superflex WR.

Reviewing the group of players currently being drafted around Marshall, it’s a combination of other young dart throws with limited upside and low probability of becoming a regular contributor in the NFL. Also, there are a couple of interesting veterans in Tyler Boyd and Marquez Valdes-Scantling – both linked to explosive offensive situations and elite quarterback play. Based on what Marshall has achieved (or not) in dynasty leagues so far, WR80 feels like a fair range for him. In existing dynasty leagues he is considered an end of the bench type in deeper leagues and a waiver candidate in more shallow leagues.

Future Outlook

Even the biggest Marshall fan will be worried about the future outlook with the Panthers. No ties to the current coaching staff, the addition of multiple wide receivers, and the drafting of a like-for-like replacement in Mingo are all reasons for concern. The hope is that 23-year-old Marshall makes a leap entering his third season, or worst case scenario to follow a similar career arc to the similarly sized DeVante Parker – who had his true breakout in his fifth season in the league.

Marshall is tied down to the Panthers for the next two seasons – meaning the light has to come on or you’re potentially holding a redundant asset until he becomes a free agent in 2025. The hit rate of players who perform this poorly to begin their career is extremely low. I can paint a picture where Mingo ascends and Marshall descends in value as the new look offends takes shape under the guidance of Reich and Young.

Trade Options/Conclusion

Marshall has all the makings of an NFL bust. In terms of current trades from the DLF Trade Finder, here are a couple of recent trades where he has been traded away, prior to the value drop predicted above:

In terms of the market value at the crowd-sourcing website Keep Trade Cut, here are a couple of trade ideas to move on from Marshall before the expected value drop predicted above:

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.12.01

Terrace Marshall could be on the DeVante Parker trajectory, in a best-case scenario… images from Player Profiler.

LONGSHOT: Chuba Hubbard, RB

Path to Relevance

The path to relevance is very simple for a backup running back or one utilized in a split-backfield scenario – injury to the starter creates an increase in volume or efficiency with limited touches combined with a jump in overall offensive output. Hubbard was a well-regarded college prospect (21 TDs and 2,094 rush yards as a sophomore), before a disappointing final season at Oklahoma State University.

He failed to make a huge impact in his first two seasons in the NFL. However, he is in a new regime without the competition of Christian McCaffrey and was sneakily the RB35 in fantasy points as a rookie. Incoming starter Sanders has never hit 17 touches per game in any season, plus the depth chart behind him is wide open (battling an undrafted player with 33 career touches in Raheem Blackshear and a pair of undrafted rookies in Cam Peoples and Tiyon Evans). Hubbard was explosive last season, averaging 4.91 yards per rush and 10.6 yards per reception – an indicator of explosion with potential to maximize limited touches, become fantasy-relevant, and gain in dynasty value.

Any running back on an NFL roster should be on a dynasty roster – where Hubbard is the clear top backup and has untapped potential based on his early college resumé and flashes of explosive touches in the NFL.

Screenshot 2023 07 04 at 17.12.09

Hubbard is the clear backup to Sanders, with room to dominate the split backfield in Carolina – Credit: 4for4.

Case Against Him

The new regime is an opportunity in an improved situation post-Matt Rhule. However, it could also be classed as a negative with no ties to the current head coach Reich, meaning he can be easily replaced whilst on his rookie deal. Considering potential replacements, there are a number of solid veteran players currently on the free agent market at running back, should the Panthers wish to add more insurance to Sanders: Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette etc. Add in the fact that Hubbard was a day-three draft selection in round four of the 2021 NFL Draft – it shows how the league views him and the talent he displayed early in his college career was not considered to fully translate to the pro game.

Finally, the addition of Sanders in free agency is on a deal where he is paid as the tenth-highest running back in the league as per Spotrac – showing a commitment to usage to align with the amount invested in the Panthers’ new asset. Tie in this will be a rookie-QB-led offense with below-average overall weapons, it could work against Hubbard in terms of high-value touches and lack of red-zone opportunity.

Verdict

Hubbard is an intriguing player to roster in dynasty, as someone who can spike in value with a Sanders injury or a better-than-expected usage or efficiency in the new-look Panthers’ offense. He is currently RB63 and pick 206 in DLF June ADP – with clear room for growth and someone who should naturally rise in value with solid usage and if avoiding the free-agent RB landmines currently on the market.

Hubbard needs to be rostered in every dynasty league – as part of a strategy to load bench spots with upside running backs, one injury away from commanding a significant role in an NFL offense. He is a low-risk, moderate upside type play – worst case scenario is a veteran addition which makes him irrelevant, with the flip side of best case scenario he is a starter for an extended period on the back of a Sanders injury and providing an opportunity to pivot after the spike in dynasty value.

Kevin White
Latest posts by Kevin White (see all)

2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Carolina Panthers
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