Dynasty Decision: Russell Wilson
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Russell Wilson, QB DEN
After being traded to the Broncos, it felt that the masses calling for the “let Russ cook” movement would finally get their way. However, 2022 was a season to forget. Now with a new head coach in charge in Sean Payton, we will see a rebound to elite fantasy production. Or will we see the Broncos move on from Wilson despite the huge dead cap cost?
Previous Performance
Entering the league as a third-round pick, Russell Wilson produced incredible fantasy numbers. Despite being in a lower-volume passing offense, he combined excellent efficiency with some rushing upside and a demon deep ball to create nine consecutive seasons of top-12 play. Added into that mix was the overall number one spot in 2017. Over the last two years, he has entered a new phase of his career where he has missed time in both seasons and could have been more productive on the field and for fantasy.
Situation and Usage
The usage question for Russell Wilson is a challenging one. He Will have yet another new play-caller and system in Sean Payton. It is tough to know precisely how Payton will utilize the talents of Wilson. While Payton got the best out of another Super Bowl-winning quarterback Drew Brees, they are very different players despite sharing similar physical traits. Wilson is at his best out of the pocket, pushing the ball downfield off of play action. Brees was at his best, operating from the pocket and targeting the short to intermediate areas.
On the situation side, I’m optimistic that this will help produce a bounceback for the veteran signal-caller. While Payton hasn’t coached a quarterback the same as Wilson, he is one of the premier offensive minds in the NFL and will get the best out of the talent in the Bronco’s locker room. As for the weapons, the Broncos may have one of the deepest pools of talent of any roster in the league. They boast a young up-and-coming Tight End in Greg Dulcich and a talented group of receivers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and the newly drafted Marvin Mims. They also have Javonte Williams returning from injury and the recently acquired free agent Samaje Perine at running back. This is the best collection of talent Russell Wilson has had throughout his career and should allow him to play a point guard-type role, distributing the ball and allowing the playmakers to do work after the catch.
Injuries
Wilson didn’t miss a single regular season game through the first nine seasons of his career. However, since then, he has back to back seasons of missing multiple games. He missed three games with a mallet finger in 2021 before missing a game, each with a hamstring issue and a concussion. None of those injuries are likely to cause any long-term concerns, and there shouldn’t be any concerns about Wilson missing time outside of the normal wear and tear of playing in the league.
Contract
Contractually may be one of the most fascinating situations in the entire league. On the face of it, Wilson is under contract until 2029 with no obvious get out for the Broncos until after the 2025 season, and even then, it would cost them $31.2m in dead cap to move on. This would look like he has significant security, although with Payton now in place as the head coach, it is hard to imagine him taking the role if he is tied to keeping Wilson long-term. Suppose Wilson has a season like last year where he disappoints. The Broncos could move on from him and designate him as a post-June 1st release. This would cost the Broncos significantly as he would count $35.4m against the cap in 2024 and $49.6m against the cap in 2025, but it would give them a path out of the contract. Realistically Wilson is going nowhere for at least two seasons and probably more.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the QB19 in May ADP, and the trade analyzer has him worth a third-rounder in 1QB leagues and worth a late first in superflex leagues. Recent trades are below; As you can see, there aren’t many simple trades that don’t involve multiple pieces, so it isn’t easy to gauge an accurate valuation.
Conclusion
Wilson is no longer the fantasy star he once was. However, his current ADP at QB19 feels incredibly undervalued. He is in arguably the best situation of his career and has almost guaranteed security for at least two seasons. That alone is enough for him to be valued higher. He will unlikely ever reproduce the top five fantasy seasons he has previously. As he ages, he will continue using his legs less and no longer contribute to those all-important rushing points. However, he will likely be a fringe top-12 option every season he is healthy. While that may not be as appealing as chasing the upside of one of the young up-and-coming options, it has significant value.
I like to balance my QB2 and QB3 in superflex leagues with a safer pick at one of them while chasing upside with the other. Wilson would be the perfect safe QB2/3 to pair with a riskier player who has the potential upside but may also bust completely.
- Dynasty Decision: Christian McCaffrey - June 13, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - June 6, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Breece Hall - May 30, 2025
