2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Dalton Kincaid

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

SITUATION

Name: Dalton Kincaid

Position: Tight End

Pro Team: Buffalo Bills

College Team: Utah

Draft Status: Round one, Pick 25 overall

The Bills traded up two slots to go and get Kincaid after he slipped past the Giants with the pick before at 24th overall. Kincaid was the top tight end on most teams (and draft analyst’s) boards, and the Bills clearly viewed him as such. Trading up to get him indicates that they have early plans for him and hope he develops into their future TE1. Under Josh Allen’s tenure as the Bills franchise signal-caller, the Bills have missed on getting an impact playmaker that can stretch the middle of the field and cause mismatches for linebackers and safeties.

The initial reaction for Kincaid and this landing spot excited dynasty owners, as the consensus was that he landed in one of the more perfect situations for him to become an early producer with an elite ceiling – and it is hard to argue either. Patience will be needed with Kincaid, but the Bills clearly envision him as a huge piece to their offense that will cause defenses to account for a middle-of-the-field presence each week.

TALENT

Dalton Kincaid Combine Results:

Height: 6’4″

Weight: 246

Arm: 32 ⅝”

Hand: 10 ¼”

40-Yard Dash: Did Not Participate

10-Yard Split: Did Not Participate

Vertical Jump: Did Not Participate

Broad Jump: Did Not Participate

Kincaid did not participate in any position drills at the NFL Combine. However, that did not deter him from losing draft stock or falling out of the first round altogether. His overall production and intriguing skillset displayed on tape helped solidify his standing amongst NFL personnel decision-makers. Both Kincaid and Michael Mayer were considered the top two tight ends in the 2023 class, but often Kincaid was seen as the consensus number one due to his ability to be a moving piece all around the formation as a flex tight end.

His versatility and athleticism will allow him to create mismatches in one-on-one situations in the middle of the field. At nearly 250 pounds, Kincaid will bring this missing piece to the Bills offense and presents an opportunity to open up their passing game even more in which they can potentially have an answer for when/if opposing defenses decide to double Stefon Diggs.

Once Kincaid is healthy, he will have every opportunity to earn a role in the offense on day one. Dawson Knox has been a good player for the Bills the last three seasons, but it’s clear – after the early investment they made in Kincaid – they are looking for more at the tight end position.

OPPORTUNITY

Buffalo Bills Depth Chart:

Courtesy of 4for4.com.

As I mentioned, and as you can see above – the only competition and threat for early targets for Kincaid – is the incumbent, Knox. Knox himself broke out in year three, finishing as the TE8 in 2021 – which so far has been his only Top-12 season. Knox regressed in 2022, falling back into TE2 territory as the TE14 with a 48/517/6 line. The Bills have tried to incorporate Knox as a bigger part of their passing game, but it seems as if they were trying to fit a square peg through a round hole.

Knox has not been able to provide a legitimate threat that defenses have to account for, hence the reason why Kincaid is now in Buffalo. At this point, it seems as if Knox will transition more into a blocking/in-line tight end when the Bills want to run 12 or 13 personnel sets, although I don’t think this will happen immediately. Being cognizant of the learning curve for rookie tight ends in year one is important. I believe Kincaid will be brought along slowly, but as long as he stays healthy, he should see his role increase throughout the season.

Knox is tied to Buffalo for at least the next two seasons with a potential out on his deal by 2025, per Spotrac. It will cost the Bills a 14 million dollar cap hit if they decide to cut ties in 2024. They would have to feel really good about Kincaid in year two to take on that note, so it seems unlikely they would move on a year early. If you believe in Kincaid’s talent, then you are ok with playing the waiting game for at least the next two years.

RISK

Courtesy of Sports-Reference.

Kincaid was an elite producer for Utah over the last two seasons, breaking out in his second year with the Utes in 2021. He displayed a knack for the endzone with his 16 touchdowns combined in 2021 and 2022, in which he ranked 3rd in the Pac-12 for receiving touchdowns with eight each. Kincaid led all FBS tight ends in 2022 with his 890 receiving yards that produced a third-team All-American selection and first-team All-Pac-12 season. Before Utah, Kincaid spent two seasons at the University of San Diego at the FCS level, racking up nearly twenty yards per catch in 2019, and there also earned all-conference honors.

Kincaid’s ability to find soft spots in the zone and his athleticism in space should help him develop as a favorite of Josh Allen’s and get Bills fans excited about his long-term future in Buffalo.

Market

Courtesy DLF May 2023 Rookie ADP.

Outside of Kincaid being a tight end and the transition from the position to the NFL, in general, being difficult, there aren’t a lot of concerns, in my opinion, for his dynasty value. He landed in a great situation, with an elite quarterback and high-powered offense, and can compete for the TE1 role as early as this season.

However, if I had to pick one concern as of this writing, it would be his rising ADP in both 1QB and superflex leagues. As of May 2023, Kincaid has a late-first ADP as the rookie 1.09 and TE1 overall. It’s a little rich and high-price tag for that selection, going one pick ahead of Ravens rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers. Despite the combination of talent and situation, I would not hesitate to move out of this spot and accumulate extra picks or move that pick for a veteran with a history of proven production.

Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.

The market for Kincaid seems to have settled in. Without him ever having taken a snap on an NFL field yet, Kincaid presents an opportunity to acquire depth wherever you may need it. I think any of these options are similarly valued with Kincaid. I’d be interested in looking into them. If you’re also moving forward with a teardown or productive struggle, moving off Kincaid for 2025 1st would be a savvy move for an unproven rookie tight end.

They may not become a starting option until then. On the flip side, if you believe in Kincaid and his talent, 2025 is mostly the time when his true breakout may occur. I’d be really interested right now to float an offer out there for Amari Cooper, who just continues to be undervalued each year.

Overall, Kincaid has hit all the metrics that matter when it comes to projecting future success in fantasy football. His lack of testing at the combine and during the draft process is null and void at this point, as it didn’t matter due to his early-round draft capital. The Bills saw enough in his tape to make a big commitment to him and bet on those traits, and that’s all that matters and what we should also pay attention to.

Patience will be required, as it could take him one to two years to develop, but Kincaid should be really good in Buffalo in the long term.