2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Kenny McIntosh, RB Georgia
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Kenny McIntosh, RB from Georgia. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Fresh off a National Championship with the Georgia Bulldogs in January, Kenny McIntosh was an intriguing name to watch for in rookie drafts. However, a disappointing pre-draft process has caused his stock to plummet. Should dynasty managers be excited by McIntosh’s receiving ability, or should they pass on this Georgia running back?
The Stats
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
2022 was the first year that McIntosh was able to step into the lead role after being buried on the Georgia depth chart behind running backs like James Cook and Zamir White. With a full workload, McIntosh accumulated 829 rushing yards and ten rushing touchdowns. After patiently waiting his turn, you’d expect him to explode when he finally had the opportunity, but that is not what happened at all.
He had only 25% of the rushing yard market share, and only 23% of Georgia’s rushing touchdowns. Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton each accumulated over 600 rushing yards and seven touchdowns a piece. This lack of production may be a product of the Georgia pipeline of talented players, but it still doesn’t inspire much confidence in McIntosh’s ability to carve out a role at the NFL level if he is losing opportunities to 18-year-old freshmen.
While McIntosh’s rushing profile leaves a lot to be desired, his one major strength is his production in the passing game. His 509 receiving yards were the second most receiving yards of any running back in the country in 2022. Also, his 2.21 yards per route run is the most of any running back in this 2023 NFL Draft class.
McIntosh will never be an early down running back at the next level, so he will have to rely on his pass-catching ability to gain a role in an NFL offense. The only issue with that is third-down backs are required to do more than just catch passes; they are also asked to pass protect. According to Pro Football Focus, McIntosh earned a pass-blocking grade of 29.2 which is 16th out of 22 running backs I have charted for this class, and in the bottom 20% nationally last season.
The Film
Looking at the film is an important piece of the puzzle and this game against Kent State is the perfect encapsulation of the Kenny McIntosh experience. Kent State is not exactly a defensive powerhouse at the college football level, and McIntosh doesn’t have a single overly impressive play in the entire game. This is also a game Georgia was trailing for a large portion of the first half, and only up by a score for the majority of the game, so you cannot say the Bulldogs were just coasting.
When watching McIntosh in this game, there is nothing that ‘wows’ you about his performance. He goes down far too easily at the first sign of contact and showcases almost zero ability to make a defender miss. He continually rushes for five yards, but behind this Georgia offensive line that is the bare minimum. There was no explosiveness when he hit the hole, and he had zero ability to run away from tacklers.
Even his work in the receiving game leaves a lot to be desired. The majority of his receptions are just swing passes in the flats where he runs forward for again, five yards. While he does have impressive receiving numbers, he does not display the same kind of route diversity as Bijan Robinson, or the explosiveness of Devon Achane.
The Measurables
Every year following the NFL Combine there are discussions about who had the worst performance. A few weeks ago I wrote about Kayshon Boutte and his disappointing combine performance. However, I think McIntosh takes the gold medal for worst weekend in Indianapolis. He weighed in at a paltry 204 pounds. That’s not good, but at least he was fast, quick and explosive, right?
Courtesy of RAS.
Wrong. His 40-time was slow, he had no explosiveness in the jumping tests, and his agility scores were some of the worst ever recorded. I know that being fast doesn’t automatically guarantee a productive NFL career, but it’s a whole lot better than being slow. Typically, players who are slow and unathletic struggle to make the transition to the next level.
McIntosh registered a Speed Score of 89.6 and history does not shine fondly on running backs that fall below 90. According to Football Outsiders, there have been 112 running backs who have earned a Speed Score below 90 at the NFL combine and only two of them have gone on to gain 2,500 total rushing yards in their first five seasons: Ahmad Bradshaw and Devin Singletary.
Dynasty Value
While it is important to discuss the question marks and reservations surrounding a player’s game, it is all relative to their value and where they are going in rookie drafts. McIntosh is currently the RB17 according to DLF’s Marc Superflex ADP and I don’t see that changing drastically from now until rookie drafts. I believe he is firmly situated as a mid-to-late day three selection in the NFL Draft and that is reflected by his RB17 ranking.
Courtesy of DLF’s March Superflex ADP.
The more interesting discussion is what other players could be available when McIntosh is on the board. His current ADP is 40.2 which falls squarely in the middle of the fourth round of rookie drafts.
Courtesy of DLF’s March Superflex ADP.
Looking at this graphic, there are much more intriguing options to be had in the fourth round than McIntosh. Literally every single one of these receivers presents some sort of interesting upside through their athleticism or college production.
I’ve made my dislike for Kenny McIntosh very clear throughout this piece, and I don’t believe that his receiving skills will be able to overcome his middling rushing profile, his poor pass blocking, or his utter lack of athleticism. I can almost guarantee I will not be drafting McIntosh in a single one of my rookie drafts. In the fourth round of rookie drafts, I’d rather take a chance on a receiver who has the chance to become a WR2 or WR3 in an NFL offense, or stash the tight end who inevitably falls, than bet on the small chance McIntosh carves out a role in the NFL.
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