Dynasty League Football

Dynasty

Dynasty Decision: Jerry Jeudy

What should you do with Jerry Jeudy in your dynasty leagues?

Jerry Jeudy

We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.

Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

Jeudy is somewhat of a divisive figure in dynasty circles at the moment. Some people see him as a young ascending star, while others believe he is overvalued and will never produce off the back of his potential.

Previous Performance

Through his short career, Jeudy has certainly flashed in stretches, including finishing last season with a six-week period where he was the WR6 in points. He came out as a highly touted prospect and a first-round pick who was an elite route runner and a player who a lot was expected of. As a rookie, he produced in flashes, putting up double-digit fantasy points in eight of his sixteen games. His 2021 season was challenging as he suffered a high ankle sprain and then proceeded to play in a limited fashion for the rest of the season.

2022 was a real breakout season. Not only did he finish on that incredible six-week stretch, but he finished as the overall WR22. If you look at advanced numbers, he was 28th in targets per route and 21st in yards per route run, which are both solid but unspectacular numbers.

Situation and Usage

Jeudy finds himself in a precarious situation. The Denver Broncos should take a step forward on offense this year with Russell Wilson in year two with the team and Sean Payton now in place as head coach and play-caller. In his 15 seasons as a head coach with the Saints, Payton had seven top-12 WR fantasy finishes and 14 top-24 WR fantasy finishes. That’s a pretty impressive record, particularly when you look at the players he was doing it with: Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, and Lance Moore. Some great fantasy producers but not superstars of the position. If Payton can bring that fantasy magic to Denver and reignite Russell Wilson, the Broncos’ wide receivers could be in for some incredible production.

However, despite that, one question mark hangs over the entire Broncos receiving room: who will still be on the team at the start of the season? Rumors about one of KJ Hamler, Courtland Sutton, or Jeudy being traded have been rife for at least 12 months. If one of the other receivers is traded, it could greatly benefit Jeudy. If Jeudy is the one traded, he could end up anywhere, and deciphering what that means for his dynasty value without knowing the landing spot is impossible.

Injuries and Contract

From a contract standpoint, the exciting thing is that Jeudy is in the final year of his rookie contract, although the team could exercise his fifth-year option in 2024 for an estimated $12.987m. The expectation would be for him to sign an extension sometime this off-season. However, having already handed out extensions to Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick with Russell Wilson on a mega contract, there aren’t currently enough resources to extend Jeudy. This is why the rumors of someone being traded are prevalent. Jeudy should be a priority, and it could be that one of the other receivers is moved on to make room for a Jeudy extension, whether a trade or a simple release at the end of the 2023 season.

As I mentioned earlier, his 2021 season was primarily affected by a high ankle sprain. He has had a couple more minor injuries but nothing that causes significant concern moving forward.

ADP and Trade Value

He is currently the WR22 in February ADP, and the DLF Trade Analyzer has him worth around a mid 2023 first-rounder. Recent trades are below; as you can see, his value is over the place, ranging from worth a mid-first to straight-up with Nick Chubb.

Conclusion

I came into writing this article thinking I was lower than the consensus on Jeudy. However, he is my WR22, and I value him around a mid-2023 first-rounder, so I am precisely at the consensus. The problem with this valuation is that because of his draft capital and that stretch to end the season last year, some people believe he is primed to become a superstar at the position. He is a divisive player, so his valuation will differ significantly depending on the micro-climate of your individual league.

I am not looking to actively acquire Jeudy for anything more significant than a late 23 first currently. There is too much uncertainty surrounding the Broncos receivers with a new head coach and Russell Wilson in what could be a make-or-break year. I also think that Jeudy lacks the elite upside to be a reliable week in week out WR1, and his ceiling is capped around where his current price is.

It may be strange to hear, given his age and recent production, but the sensible move is to try to sell high off last season’s hype and upgrade at the position. Could you attach a second-round pick to Jeudy to go and get a player like Drake London or Amon-Ra St. Brown? If you can, that’s a great move that could reap huge rewards.

Dynasty Decision: Jerry Jeudy
2 Comments
5 1 vote
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
qwengler
11 days ago

For added context, when you filter out tiny sample sizes and set a 35 target minimum threshold for the data set, jeudy rises to 12th in yards per route run. He’s also 4th in YAC/reception with a healthy 12.1 adot. I’d say his advanced stats were quite impressive this year, and very telling amid a tough year for the offense. If anyone had any questions, he’s the definitive top wr over Sutton.

I have to disagree though about his ceiling being capped, though I do agree with the consistency part. Health has been the primary factor that really held him back. Had he not missed 2 games, he was on pace for 1100yds. When considering that he basically did not play in an additional 4 games, he’d likely have been on pace to potentially eclipse 1300 yards, and I don’t think we’d be viewing his ceiling as capped if that came to fruition. I think his ceiling and talent is as high as anyone else in the league, but immaturity, health, and offensive ineptitude have held him back more than some of his peers were subject to early in their careers.

When considering he’s only 23, I feel like a rebuilding team should value him as a top 15-18wr. I’ve seen enough to know he’s got elite type talent, just has to put it all together. For teams possibly approaching the end of a competing window, you might value him barely inside the top 24, or worse, due to the uncertainty of the team at present.

Littlewing745
11 days ago

Whew…before I got to the conclusion, I was concerned you were going to say, “actually…he may be a good value.” I get why people like him. I am an Alabama fan (it was one of my schools I actually attended – not just a fanatic), but after his first two seasons in the NFL, it was clear Jeudy had the talent but neither the situation nor the luck. Is that to say he’ll never be good? Definitely not. But he reminds me a LOT of Corey Davis’s arc in the NFL, and that didn’t work out too great.
Sometimes you have to identify early the guys who may not reach their full potential and sell them for that potential value before other people figure it out, too.

To Top