Dynasty League Football


Dynasty Fantasy Football: Three Players Who Will Gain Value in 2023

We pick out three players who are primed to boom in dynasty value this season.

Jerry Jeudy

In case you didn’t know, DLF has a YouTube channel! We post FREE video content over there at least five days a week covering dynasty trades, strategy, and player analysis. For my videos specifically, I write out a script to basically read when I record, but I realized that script could be turned into written content for anyone who doesn’t want to watch YouTube to read too! So, without further ado, here is an “article-ized” version of one of my recent videos covering three players who will gain a ton of value heading into 2023!

AJ Dillon, RB GB

First up on my list of players who will gain significant dynasty value this year is Packers running back Dillon. After a lackluster rookie season playing as the RB3 on the team, Dillon had a solid second season, totaling over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns, finishing as the PPR RB21. He hasn’t been an amazing fantasy asset yet, but I think 2022 changes things for Dillon and I think we’re about to see Derrick Henry 2.0.

Statistics from Pro Football Reference

Take a look at Henry’s start to his career – in his rookie season, he didn’t do much playing behind DeMarco Murray who had the lion’s share of the touches and was the RB5 in fantasy that year.

Statistics from Pro Football Reference.

In Dillon’s rookie year, he didn’t do much playing behind Aaron Jones (and Jamaal Williams), with Jones having the lion’s share of the touches and was the RB5 in fantasy that year.

Statistics from Pro Football Reference.

In year two, Henry starts cutting into Murray’s workload, to where they’re basically a 50/50 split rushing, but Murray is still the primary receiving back.

Statistics from Pro Football Reference

In Dillon’s second season, he starts cutting into Jones’ workload to where it’s basically a 50/50 split rushing, but Jones is still the primary receiving back.

Statistics from Pro Football Reference.

By year three, Henry has taken over and while Murray is gone, Dion Lewis is still siphoning over 200 touches, including main receiving back duties. But we’ve seen the upside for Henry, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns in his first season with over 200 touches. I think the same is about to happen in Green Bay, where Dillon is going to take over as the main ball carrier, with Jones still getting solid work every week, primarily through the passing game. That alone would raise Dillon’s dynasty value a little bit, but like Henry, it would be the expectation that even more work is coming in 2023 that would significantly raise Dillon’s value.

Statistics from Pro Football Reference.

As we all know, Henry’s fourth season in 2019 was the massive breakout year, where he was trusted with basically the entirety of the backfield as Lewis ceded over 100 touches to Henry. I think Dillon is on the same path after this season. Aaron Jones is not long for this team; in fact, the Packers can cut him next off-season and save over $10m in cap. Even if Jones restructures and is still a Packer, he’ll be 29 years old and it’ll be harder and harder for him to keep up with a 25-year-old Dillon.

Dillon will also be in the final year of his rookie contract, so you could argue that Green Bay would want to maximize Dillon’s rookie contract before making the decision to sign him long-term. Every scenario of this basically ends the same: Jones gets kicked to the curb and Dillon steps into the workhorse RB1 role. That’s what happened with Henry, and that’s what I’m expecting to happen to Dillon, and when it does, he could be a top-ten dynasty running back by next spring, which is a significant increase from his current RB23 ADP.

Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

Next on the list is Broncos wide receiver Jeudy and this might sound surprising considering my massive endorsement of Courtland Sutton, but I really believe the entire Broncos offense is in for a huge 2022 season because of Russell Wilson. I honestly believe that both Sutton and Jerry Jeudy can be fantasy WR1s this year, and I believed that before Tim Patrick tore his ACL.

Wilson’s best season was just back in 2020, which was also the season with the most pass attempts in his career. In that season, he threw for over 4,200 yards and 40 touchdowns and supported both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett not only as WR1s, but top-eight fantasy receivers. Even last year, when Wilson was hurt and had arguably the worst season of his career, he still helped make Metcalf and Lockett the WR15 and WR16 on the season. This is the talent and ability that Wilson brings to the table in Denver and BOTH Sutton and Jeudy are in for massive seasons.

However, even if they both produce very similarly as fantasy WR1s, Jeudy would be the main beneficiary for dynasty because he’s three years younger than Sutton. Think about it, a 24-year-old receiver who had the first-round and college pedigree, coming off a top-ten fantasy finish, connected to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. How high do you think that player would be valued? My guess is probably a top-ten dynasty receiver. Tee Higgins is currently the WR7, Jaylen Waddle the WR8, and even Metcalf right now is still the WR11, but was the WR6 before Wilson was traded. So go get Jeudy now at his current WR23 prices before a potential value explosion to being an elite dynasty asset.

Elijah Moore, WR NYJ

The final player is someone I’m sure you’ve all heard mentioned countless times as a dynasty buy, especially from DLF, but I have to put my stamp of approval on Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore. This dude… is going to be so good, I just can’t put it any other way, he’s going to be so good! But, we’ve dropped his dynasty value even though we basically knew they were adding another receiver in the draft.

However, I’m here to tell you that I am not afraid of Garrett Wilson. In fact, I’ve generally found myself lower on Wilson than a lot of other dynasty analysts out there. Yes, he was my rookie WR3, but he was not in the top tier with Drake London and Treylon Burks at all. I actually even highlight very clearly on our YouTube channel that analytically there was almost ZERO difference between Wilson and his teammate Chris Olave, with the main differences coming from what people saw on film of the two.

But Wilson got the first-round draft capital, which was almost a full round higher than what Elijah Moore got the year prior and that’s what’s led to Moore’s value falling and also him being valued BEHIND Wilson. Most Moore believers have pointed to Tee Higgins last year as an example of a player who still succeeded and gained value despite another elite receiver joining the team. To tell you the truth… they’re wrong.

Moore is not Tee Higgins and Wilson is not Ja’Marr Chase. There was no doubt whatsoever that Chase was a better player than Higgins, literally none. However, I’m of the belief that Moore is a better receiver than Wilson because Moore was actually a better prospect than Wilson!

Breakout age – Elijah Moore. Career dominator rating – Elijah Moore. Highest yards per team pass attempt – Elijah Moore. Best market share of yards – Elijah Moore. BMI – Elijah Moore. 40 time – Elijah Moore. Speed Score – identical. And don’t even try to make the “but Garrett Wilson was competing with other first-round talents” because Moore played with AJ Brown and DK Metcalf in his freshman season and produced similar numbers to Wilson’s freshman season.

I truly believe that Moore is the Jets’ WR1 now, next year, and the rest of his time on the team and based on every report out of training camp, that belief is true.

I talked about what would happen to Jeudy’s value if he had a big season this year, well the same applies to Moore. If anything, the time is now to buy Moore just to get ahead of the third-year breakout hype next off-season, when he gets labeled as the new Chris Godwin or DJ Moore or what we’re doing to Michael Pittman right now, who’s currently the WR12. Elijah Moore is an easy bet to gain a ton of value heading into 2023.

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Dynasty Fantasy Football: Three Players Who Will Gain Value in 2023
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Michael Torriero
1 month ago

I agree on 2 out of the 3 players…
I’m not sold on Jeudy…he hasn’t had good QB play I’ll give u that but it wasn’t terrible either…I think he was a part of the problem on that offense too…not as much as the QB play but he has to take some accountability on his play…which wasn’t great.

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