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The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag

We answer some of your dynasty questions from Twitter.

Justin Fields

Hey, loyal Dynasty League Football universe. I’ll be answering your mailbag questions this off-season and couldn’t be more excited to do so. The off-season is when dynasty league managers get to sit back and relax.

Wait. That’s completely incorrect.

The off-season is when we refine our strategies, look back at the year past, the year to come, and everything in between. If you missed the last mailbag, you can find that here. For this week’s questions, I asked the Twitterverse for some help. Going forward, you can send your questions to the DLF mailbag. Let’s dig in!

First up this week, we have a fantasy manager wondering what we do with Justin Fields.

Going into last season Fields was the QB11, coming off the board at 16.75 overall in August 2021 DLF Superflex mock drafts, while as of April 2022 mocks he’s now the QB13 and has fallen to 22.25 overall. Though that dip is relatively small, it denotes the hesitancy over Fields’ future. The Bears fired Matt Nagy but replaced him with a former defensive coordinator in Matt Eberflus. The offensive coordinator they hired – Luke Getsy – is a wild card, having never called offensive plays before.

I also have grave concerns for Fields knowing that Darnell Mooney, who ranked 61st in fantasy points per target is his number one (only?) option in the offense. In free agency, the Bears added Byron Pringle and fantasy flameouts Dante Pettis, Tajae Sharpe, and Equanimeous St. Brown. The only receiver they added in the draft was Velus Jones Jr, who “broke out” in his age-24 season while in college. Yes, age-24 season in college. Jones Jr turned 25 on May 11th and is older than teammate Mooney (24) who is entering his third professional season.

But is the situation any worse than it was in 2021 for Fields? Despite having Nagy as a play-caller, and an arguably worst offensive cast surrounding him, Fields still was able to finish as a top ten quarterback in four of his final five games played. He averaged 56 rushing yards per game (5.6 PPG) in that stretch and showed he can still be an elite option in the worst of circumstances.

Using the Dynasty Trade Finder app, we find a few different trades involving Fields. This first trade, giving up Fields and picks to get Trevor Lawrence, is not a trade I like. It’s easy to make excuses for Lawrence but he was objectively bad in 2022 and doesn’t possess the rushing ability to paper over poor passing statistics like Fields does.

Below is a trade I would make every day of the week. Giving up Fields and two mid/late 2022 rookie picks for a top three dynasty quarterback is a slam dunk.

In the end, what it comes down to is can you move Fields for a safer option that also has the potential for elite upside that he possesses. How much risk are you willing to take? He still has the potential for elite upside, but the downside (finishing as the QB31 or worse in four starts last year), is also evident.

Next question…

I look at dynasty leagues like I do marriage. Would I like them to last forever? Of course, but if you’re not happy in the relationship, and it doesn’t bring you joy, or you just drift apart, then it’s okay to end it any time.

I can only give personal examples. The 2022 season will be my eighth (or ninth) year of playing dynasty, but my oldest leagues are just going into season five. When I first started playing dynasty, I played exclusively in one-quarterback leagues and now I skeeve the format, so I either left all of those leagues or they folded. That’s just one example of why leagues may fold or I may have left leagues. I hope that all the leagues I’m in now never end, but a reasonable expectation would be at least six years. I would love to hear in the comments below what you expect as a DLF reader.

The dirty little secret about rookie drafts is that after the first round the hit rates fall. We’ll describe a hit as a top-24 season, or rise in ADP from their rookie season to their sophomore season. The drop from the second round to hits found in the third round is vast as well. Just using last year as an example, you can note that four of the 12 second-round picks (based on MFL ADP) were hits, for a 33% hit rate, while just two of 12 (16.6%) third round picks could be described as hits. Going back to 2020 rookie drafts, the contrast is even starker: five hits from the second round, and one from the third round. While in theory it makes sense to get extra picks to throw more darts, the better play is to simply hold on to the second-round draft pick.

The Patriots hate fantasy football. They now have Damien Harris (RB31), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB38), Pierre Strong (RB56), James White (RB72), and Kevin Harris (RB73), in their running back room. In a vacuum everyone of these players would be someone I’d be interested in for fantasy, but as they’re all on the same roster they’re going to cannibalize each other. Short term, i.e. 2022 fantasy production, guessing which running back will be most valuable is likely a fool’s errand. Looking long term, I’ll rank the running backs I would look to acquire/hold.

Damien Harris finished as the RB18 last year, while only averaging 1.3 targets per game, so his fantasy production shouldn’t be threatened by the return of James White, whose speciality is in the receiving game. Harris is also a free agent after the 2022 season, so he has a route to escape New England. You can also acquire him for minimal investment as shown by the Dynasty Trade Finder.

Strong Jr is an elite athlete, who along with good production in college, had good receiving production. Considering his profile, and a much cheaper acquisition cost than Stevenson, Strong Jr would be the second target out of the backfield.

Stevenson showed last year, especially when Harris was unable to play (small sample size alert) that he can be a productive fantasy player. He was also benched multiple times last year for fumbling, which if he doesn’t correct, could see him buried on the depth chart. Considering his risk/reward, ranking him third out of this backfield seems prudent. I then would take Kevin Harris over White, due to age, and White being largely limited to a receiving back role.

The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag
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wretch
4 months ago

How long do you realistically expect a dynasty league to last?
If you’ve got a good core of friends and fanatics the league can last a long time. My league is going into our 22nd year. We started as keeper and added dynasty elements over the first 5 years. Been running mostly the same format since then, making small/large tweaks like expanding IDP/Flex changes as we go. One of our owners maintains his son will inherit his team.

6gummybearsandsomescotch
4 months ago

Thanks Shane! Love this forum and your takes. I have Fields, Harris and Stevenson so maybe I’m biased this week, LOL. Definitely moving on from Harris and Stevenson for some 2023 capital or a 2022 2nd hopefully. I’m in a productive struggle with RB’s hitting prime so now is the time to cash in, especially with the value in 2022 and elites in 2023. Our dynasty league is going on its 14th season and it’s been a lot of fun. We’ve lost maybe 5 owners over that time. Most of us are friends from old jobs so it’s pretty cool. Thanks again!

Justin Klopfenstein
4 months ago

In your experience what is the best way to trade for a top 5 QB to pair with another top 5 QB on your roster?

James Endler
4 months ago

I think we are headed to our 9th or 10th season and don’t see us ending it anytime soon. My brother lives in Phoenix and I live in Pittsburgh, so we made up the league with half his friends and half of mine. That way we could set it up as an East vs West format with a championship always decided like a real superbowl. We also keep track of wins throughout the season against each other with the winning division getting a 20 dollar discount or case of beer equivalency. Figure if anyone wants out, it would be easier to find a new owner from our other redraft leagues since it is split. Only one has quit over the years and the league is getting more competitive as owners are finally trading draft picks and players more frequently. Dynasty is the Best!

Chad Gorick
4 months ago

Hey Shane, our group has a 1QB league that has been going for 5 years and a SF that is in its 2nd year. We all work together but we’re spread out all over the country. Agree that when it’s friends it helps you work through the ups and downs…but it’s cutthroat too! Lol.
How about this one: 12 teams. 1QB league, PPR. My RB room is DCook, Zeke, AJones, Monty, Foreman, Etienne, Mattison. I’m trying to gauge the value of K Herbert as a handcuff and maybe the future in Chicago after Monty’s rookie deal runs out. My highest 2022 draft pick is the 2.10. Thinking of offering my 2.10 for Herbert and the 3.02. The other guy is grabbing up all the 2nd rounders he can. Wonder who I might be missing out on in the draft for those 4 spots? Sound like a good deal?

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Shane Manila
4 months ago

Thanks Shane!

Vespa
4 months ago

Looking for a take on Mattison, I own him in a 10 year long dynasty league with salary caps and contract lengths. His contract is up and I have the option to resign and keep him, do you think he’s worth owning for 3-4 years or should I let him go? resigns are limited to 3 per the 10 years so it is worth roughly a 1st round pick any given year.

justin reister
4 months ago

Asking for advice in a 14 team dynasty league we use d/st need 2 there’s 4 left out of the 4 what would be the best 2 to roster looking at short term and long term the 4 defenses left are browns bengals commanders and ravens I’ve looked at multiple rankings and they seem all over the place

Scott Whiddon
3 months ago

ok. I’m in a 10 team .5 PPR dyanasy leauge. We haven’t drafted yet, but we have cut our rosters to the 10 players we want to keep. Last year, I drafted Trevor Lawrence early hoping that he would be a phenom… but you know how that went. I struggled at QB all year but still came out with a strong 11-3 season and a second place finish. I kept Lawrence as one of my 10 keepers hoping that he’ll show up this year. I believe that I could land A. Rogers or T. Brady in the coming draft but I’m not sure I need to. Should I continue to ride T. Lawrence this year and risk depending on the waiver wire week to week? I’ve been aggressively trading in the off season and believe I’ve got a solid core.
J. Taylor, D. Henry, D. Montgomery, Ronald Jones, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Dalton Schultz, T. Lawrence.

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