Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather JK Dobbins or a 2023 First-Round Rookie Pick?
Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. The values used here come via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!
JK Dobbins versus a 2023 first-round rookie pick
Last week we covered a trade involving Aaron Jones versus the 2022 1.06. We always look at players or picks that carry similar values and let you vote on who you would rather have. This one was not very close, with the 2023 first-round pick winning out by over a two-to-one margin. Here were the results:
Which do you prefer? (Superflex)
— DLF (@DLFootball) April 11, 2022
Once again voters were in alignment with the values from the trade analyzer. There still has only been one instance where the votes did not agree with the trade analyzer values.
Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.
These numbers reflect a superflex league. Dobbins’s value goes all the way up to 564.7 in a one-quarterback league, making it a high 2023 first that would be needed to match value.
A Case for Dobbins
Dobbins was poised for a big year in 2021 before an ACL injury in training camp derailed that train.
Before that, the Ohio State grad finished his rookie season as the RB24 in PPR formats despite sharing the backfield with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram. Ingram left Baltimore before the season, leaving just Edwards in town to split the workload in 2020.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Dobbins was better on a per-carry basis than his teammate Edwards by a full quarter of a point (1.00 to .75) and actually scored 26.2 more points on ten fewer carries. The 23-year-old averaged a ridiculous 6.0 yards per attempt his rookie season and scored nine touchdowns. The Ravens have typically been a run-first team under head coach John Harbaugh as evidenced by the chart below.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
The 2021 season was a bit of an anomaly due to the injury situation in the Ravens backfield and the fact that the defense was not quite as good as it had been in the past. We typically see Baltimore run the ball almost 60% of the time compared to a 40% pass ratio. This bodes well for Dobbins’s outlook in 2022.
There have been some rumblings that Melvin Gordon may sign with the Ravens which would put a little bit of a damper on the outlook for this season, but the long-term situation is a promising one.
Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
An ADP top-ten running back just a year ago, Dobbins is a great value at the current price of RB16. We mentioned earlier that the former Buckeye is still just 23 years old, meaning he has at least three or four useful years remaining for dynasty purposes.
A Case for the 2023 First
Using the DLF devy rankings, the 2023 mid-first you are trading Dobbins for would net you someone like Jahmyr Gibbs, Kayshon Boutte, Zach Evans, Jordan Addison, or Quentin Johnson.
Data Courtesy of DLF Devy Rankings.
This is where you have to ask yourself if you think Jahmyr Gibbs or Zach Evans can produce just as well or better than JK Dobbins going forward. Landing spot and draft capital will go a long way in determining the answer to that question. Unfortunately, we will not have that data until April of next year. If you are in the fortunate position of being heavy on running backs, then you could turn the Ravens’ running back into a top receiver like Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Kayshon Boutte. If you would like to take a sneak peek at a couple of the players mentioned above, click here.
Conclusion
As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. We prefer Dobbins here because of his age. While the 2023 class is stacked and rather deep, we still do not know what can happen over the next 365 days. Assuming Dobbins is healthy and Gordon stays away, there will be big things coming for the Houston native in 2022.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
- 2025 Dynasty Rookie Early Look Recap - February 7, 2025
- 2024 Division Buy/Sell/Hold Recap - August 26, 2024
- 2024 Navigating Dynasty Rookie Drafts Recap - August 23, 2024
Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. The values used here come via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!
JK Dobbins versus a 2023 first-round rookie pick
Last week we covered a trade involving Aaron Jones versus the 2022 1.06. We always look at players or picks that carry similar values and let you vote on who you would rather have. This one was not very close, with the 2023 first-round pick winning out by over a two-to-one margin. Here were the results:
Which do you prefer? (Superflex)
— DLF (@DLFootball) April 11, 2022
Once again voters were in alignment with the values from the trade analyzer. There still has only been one instance where the votes did not agree with the trade analyzer values.
Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.
These numbers reflect a superflex league. Dobbins’s value goes all the way up to 564.7 in a one-quarterback league, making it a high 2023 first that would be needed to match value.
A Case for Dobbins
Dobbins was poised for a big year in 2021 before an ACL injury in training camp derailed that train.
Before that, the Ohio State grad finished his rookie season as the RB24 in PPR formats despite sharing the backfield with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram. Ingram left Baltimore before the season, leaving just Edwards in town to split the workload in 2020.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Dobbins was better on a per-carry basis than his teammate Edwards by a full quarter of a point (1.00 to .75) and actually scored 26.2 more points on ten fewer carries. The 23-year-old averaged a ridiculous 6.0 yards per attempt his rookie season and scored nine touchdowns. The Ravens have typically been a run-first team under head coach John Harbaugh as evidenced by the chart below.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
The 2021 season was a bit of an anomaly due to the injury situation in the Ravens backfield and the fact that the defense was not quite as good as it had been in the past. We typically see Baltimore run the ball almost 60% of the time compared to a 40% pass ratio. This bodes well for Dobbins’s outlook in 2022.
There have been some rumblings that Melvin Gordon may sign with the Ravens which would put a little bit of a damper on the outlook for this season, but the long-term situation is a promising one.
Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
An ADP top-ten running back just a year ago, Dobbins is a great value at the current price of RB16. We mentioned earlier that the former Buckeye is still just 23 years old, meaning he has at least three or four useful years remaining for dynasty purposes.
A Case for the 2023 First
Using the DLF devy rankings, the 2023 mid-first you are trading Dobbins for would net you someone like Jahmyr Gibbs, Kayshon Boutte, Zach Evans, Jordan Addison, or Quentin Johnson.
Data Courtesy of DLF Devy Rankings.
This is where you have to ask yourself if you think Jahmyr Gibbs or Zach Evans can produce just as well or better than JK Dobbins going forward. Landing spot and draft capital will go a long way in determining the answer to that question. Unfortunately, we will not have that data until April of next year. If you are in the fortunate position of being heavy on running backs, then you could turn the Ravens’ running back into a top receiver like Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Kayshon Boutte. If you would like to take a sneak peek at a couple of the players mentioned above, click here.
Conclusion
As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. We prefer Dobbins here because of his age. While the 2023 class is stacked and rather deep, we still do not know what can happen over the next 365 days. Assuming Dobbins is healthy and Gordon stays away, there will be big things coming for the Houston native in 2022.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
- 2025 Dynasty Rookie Early Look Recap - February 7, 2025
- 2024 Division Buy/Sell/Hold Recap - August 26, 2024
- 2024 Navigating Dynasty Rookie Drafts Recap - August 23, 2024
