Monday Mocks: March Dynasty Startup ADP

Ken Kelly Posted On March 21, 2022

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the offseason. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys and more.

Loyal readers of DLF have likely already noticed our dynasty startup ADP has been a little off schedule over the past two months. In February, we waited until the conclusion of the Super Bowl in order to have the 2022 rookie class included in our data for the first time. This month, I wanted to push back the start of our mock drafts to feel the full impact of free agency and all other moves being made around the league. The first ADP update has been released with more to come as we move towards a full data set. In the meantime, I wanted to offer a preview of the data, with player updates and more.

ROUND ONE

1.01 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
1.02 Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN
1.03 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
1.04 Najee Harris, RB PIT
1.05 Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
1.06 CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
1.07 D’Andre Swift, RB DET
1.08 Tyreek Hill, WR KC
1.09 Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
1.10 AJ Brown, WR TEN
1.11 Javonte Williams, RB DEN
1.12 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA

• It has become the norm that Taylor, Chase and Jefferson are locked in as the top three picks and that is the case again this month. The two wide receivers continue to swap spots but Taylor is the near consensus at the 1.01.

• Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts continues to slowly ascend the ranks. He’s up one spot from last month, setting a new all-time high for himself. He’s approaching Rob Gronkowski peak value.

• After a down month in February, Lamb is back in the top-half of the first round, thanks in part to the trade that sent veteran Amari Cooper to Cleveland. Lamb’s target competition has dwindled and many are expecting a true breakout year in 2022.

• Overall, the first round is being dominated by pass-catchers. I am on record Taylor is the only running back I would spend a top-12 pick on and our data is trending that way. It is only 2020 rookies Taylor and Swift, along with last year’s top rookie backs, Harris and Williams, among the first round. The other eight are pass-catchers, including seven wide receivers.

• The class of 2021 is already proving to be a game-changers. Four of the top-12 picks are from that rookie class, with another four from the 2020 rookie class.

ROUND TWO

2.01 Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR
2.02 Davante Adams, WR LV
2.03 Deebo Samuel, WR SF
2.04 DK Metcalf, WR SEA
2.05 Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
2.06 Tee Higgins, WR CIN
2.07 Mark Andrews, TE BAL
2.08 Alvin Kamara, RB NO
2.09 Breece Hall, RB ROOKIE
2.10 Joe Mixon, RB CIN
2.11 Stefon Diggs, WR BUF
2.12 Derrick Henry, RB TEN

• While it appears as if McCaffrey has fallen outside of the first round for the first time since September, 2018, it is really just a technicality. McCaffrey and Waddle, ranked 12th, have the exact same ADP. McCaffrey hangs onto his Round One draft capital by the slimmest of margins.

• The trade of Russell Wilson clearly hurts the Seattle pass catchers and DK Metcalf falls from 1.12 last month to the 2.04 in March. Expect him to continue to tumble unless the Seahawks address the quarterback position.

• Andrews is locked in as the TE2 after his big season and we see a sizable gap from him to the other options coming up in later rounds.

• Last month, the rookie Breece Hall was a mid-fourth rounder. After he dominated the Combine and established himself as the clear favorite to be the rookie 1.01, he’s catapulted up multiple rounds to land among the top-24 players. That also ranks him as the RB8 in dynasty. Get used to that.

ROUND THREE

3.01 Saquon Barkley, RB NYG
3.02 Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
3.03 Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
3.04 Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
3.05 DJ Moore, WR CAR
3.06 Cam Akers, RB LAR
3.07 JK Dobbins, RB BAL
3.08 Nick Chubb, RB CLE
3.09 Treylon Burks, WR ROOKIE
3.10 Josh Allen, QB BUF
3.11 Elijah Moore, WR NYJ
3.12 Chris Godwin, WR TB

• If you have participated in a dynasty startup draft this offseason, you surely noticed the pivot to many managers building their teams around the wide receiver position. This is evident in this data set. That results in running backs falling but at the same time, allows those wide receiver-heavy teams to grab their RB1 in the third or fourth rounds.

• Seeing Barkley or Cook as third rounders is a bit of a surprise at first but is understandable given the questions about their long-term future. It also makes for a nice value for a team that went WR/WR to start the draft.

• Rookie receiver Treylon Burks didn’t exactly help himself at the Combine but we still see a nice jump for him – that means even in what is viewed as a down draft class, rookie fever is in effect. Burks climbs from the 46th overall ranked player last month up to 33rd this month.

• In March, Allen overtook Patrick Mahomes as the dynasty QB1 based on our ADP data and he’s widened the gap this month as the only quarterback in the top three rounds.

ROUND FOUR

4.01 Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
4.02 Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
4.03 Travis Kelce, TE KC
4.04 George Kittle, TE SF
4.05 Josh Jacobs, RB LV
4.06 Garrett Wilson, WR ROOKIE
4.07 Kenneth Walker III, RB ROOKIE
4.08 Travis Etienne, RB JAC
4.09 DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
4.10 David Montgomery, RB CHI
4.11 Mike Evans, WR TB
4.12 Drake London, WR ROOKIE

• As I mentioned, rookie fever is here. Round Four brings three more rookies coming off the board as Wilson, Walker and London find themselves in the top-48 players. Walker especially noteworthy coming off a strong Combine performance that has him in the running to be the 1.02 in rookie drafts.

• The TE3 & 4 are found in this round as veterans Kelce and Kittle are near the top of the round. The gap from this duo to Darren Waller is noticeable and surprising. Give me Waller at a discount compared to Kelce and Kittle.

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Ken Kelly

Co-Founder at DynastyLeagueFootball

Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK