We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.
However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short. We’ll tackle this all off-season.
Let’s jump into the first one.
This question came in near the end of the show, and Cal and I just answered without too much explanation. According to the DLF Trade Analyzer, the Adams side comes out on top.
However, I have some skepticism about holding Adams moving into the off-season. He recently turned 29 years old in December, putting him beyond his value peak. In contrast, Brown doesn’t even turn 25 until June, making him almost precisely 4.5 years younger than Adams.
Based on that fact, I would rather have Brown over Adams in a startup, even though Adams produced more in 2021. As you can see in the above image, Brown has a higher ADP and average dynasty rank than Adams, although they are somewhat close in value. I fully believe Brown remains an ascending dynasty asset and that he is one of the best wide receivers in the league. So even with an added second-rounder, I’ll still take Brown here.
PJ Kennedy – Do you think Aaron Rodgers goes to Denver?
During the 2021 off-season, I often discussed how I felt Rodgers and the Packers had irreconcilable differences. I didn’t believe he would return to the team for the 2021 season and I was personally surprised when he decided to play for them again. However, I think the flashpoint occurred then, and relations have cooled since.
Rodgers led the Packers to the top overall seed and a first-round bye, putting him in contention for back-to-back MVP awards. He had another stellar year, reversing the decline he saw before the 2020 season.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As you can see, Rodgers struggled through an injury-riddled 2017 season before a down 2018 in Mike McCarthy’s final year as head coach. Then in 2019, Rodgers led the Packers to a 13-3 record, but failed to duplicate his yardage and touchdown totals from his past, although he did take care of the football with only four interceptions.
That timing makes sense, as the Packers traded up for and spent a first-round round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on quarterback Jordan Love. At the time, it made some sense, as Rodgers was already 36 years old and seemed to be on a downward trajectory. However, throughout his first two years in the NFL, Love demonstrated nothing to show he’s ready to take over as the Packers’ starter. At the same time, Rodgers responded after the Love selection with two of the best statistical seasons of his career.
Therefore, I believe the Packers will reverse course this off-season, trading Love away and committing to Rodgers for the rest of his career. Rodgers turned 38 years old in December, so it’s entirely possible he could have two, three, or even four solid years left. The Packers must also decide on Love’s fully guaranteed fifth-year option after the 2022 season, so they can’t wait another year with him on the bench. To summarize, I doubt Rodgers ends up in Denver, and I expect Love to go to a different team, potentially Denver, Washington, Pittsburgh, or anyone who needs a quarterback badly.
Mike Dimatteo – 1.06 or DK Metcalf? .5 PPR SF
This trade idea makes me feel Metcalf is an excellent buy-low candidate this off-season. I’m not sure I’d send the 1.01 in a superflex dynasty league for Metcalf, but the 1.06 is an easy price to pay.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Metcalf duplicated his target total from 2020, although he played one more game in this year’s new 17-game season. Unfortunately, he turned those targets into over 300 fewer yards and eight fewer receptions, even though he scored two more touchdowns.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Therefore, Metcalf regressed to scoring 14.37 fantasy points per game in 2021, down from 17.08 in 2020. Part of those struggles likely came from Russell Wilson’s injuries and poor play, though. He recently turned 24 years old in December, so he has plenty of time to rise again as a fantasy asset. None of his physical traits have declined and he remains a crucial part of Seattle’s offense. I’d love to buy him low at the 1.06 price or anywhere near that.
All three of these quarterbacks have held franchise quarterback positions before – Marcus Mariota with the Titans, Mitch Trubisky with the Bears, and Jameis Winston with the Buccaneers. But then, they all lost those jobs and had to take backup work instead, at least initially. Mariota signed as Derek Carr’s backup with the Raiders, Trubisky as Josh Allen’s backup for the Bills, and Winston as Drew Brees’ backup for the Saints. Winston eventually became the Saints’ starter for the 2021 season after Brees retired, although he suffered a season-ending knee injury in week eight.
This off-season, all of these quarterbacks will enter the unrestricted free agent market. All three are either 27 or 28 years old, with less than a year in age between the oldest, Mariota, and the youngest, Trubisky. However, these three players have entirely different chances of earning a new starting job in the NFL. Winston has by far the best shot, as the Saints could easily retain him for one more year – they won five of the seven games he started compared to only four of the remaining ten.
Between Mariota and Trubisky, I’m not sure who NFL teams want to see more. In December’s DLF superflex ADP, the mock drafters preferred Trubisky by a decently wide margin. He was the QB39 and 203 overall compared to QB48 and 239.67 overall for Mariota. I agree with the drafters, as I think I saw enough from Mariota in Tennessee. Ryan Tannehill came in with the same roster in 2019 and suddenly led them to the AFC Championship game.
In contrast, though, I feel like Trubisky never got a real or fair opportunity in Chicago. He played his rookie year under holdover coach John Fox before finding some success and a playoff berth with Matt Nagy in 2018. However, as we know now, Nagy is a terrible head coach, and it’s fair to wonder if Trubisky’s subsequent struggles were because of Nagy’s poor coaching. I expect Trubisky is more likely to sign somewhere where he has some path to starting or at least competing for the starting job, while Mariota may have to settle for a clear backup job once again.
See you next week!
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