Lineup Advice: Week 16 – Spinning the Wheel

Week 16 - (PLEASE READ)

Once again, Happy Holidays to you and yours. I'm wishing your family a most joyous, safe and healthy holiday season and 2022!

Let's start with the report card as we look ahead to week 16. I'm in 12 dynasty leagues of which two are orphan teams I picked up this year and last year and, as such, I'm leaving them out of my reporting. These two teams were in pretty bad shape and I usually give myself at least 24 months to turn teams around. One of them finished, quite unexpectedly, at .500, just out of the playoffs.  But this report card is for the ten remaining true dynasty teams I manage.

I made the playoffs in 8-of-10 leagues, securing a week-15 bye in four. Of the four playing this week, three will be moving on. For the two teams not making the playoffs, one secured the first-overall selection as I had no hope of competing due to the injury bug. In the other league, I am in the tail end of a minor rebuild with all my focus on 2022 being the year to be competitive. Even still, that team finished 9-5 but didn't make the playoffs in our thin playoff format.

Looking at week 15 for my playoff teams, unfortunately, I needed a good game from Cooper Kupp in one league which ultimately sunk me in another league. As it turns out, a great game from Miles Sanders and/or Van Jefferson could have saved me from that fate but Jalen Hurts taking the touchdown opportunities from Sanders ended my hopes of that occurring. My prospects in week 16 are not as bright as a couple of these teams have already lost key players, one losing Godwin, Fournette and Freiermuth this past week to go with Swift and Julio Jones. This team was 12-2 and will be pieced together with bubble gum and Scotch tape in week 16. Godwin and Fournette are common players among many of these playoff teams so I'll be doing what I can to fill the holes.

As crazy as this season has been, week 15 upped the ante. Between injuries, Covid and unexpected performance, both bad and good, setting lineups and giving lineup advice has seemed too much like spinning the wheel. Luck plays a big role in our game, but the metrics and trends are supposed to be there to help talent, due-diligence and foresight to win out in the end. It has felt like anything but that.

Quarterback play has been entirely erratic and tough to trust. Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady have been nearly impossible to project. For Prescott and Wilson, the trend is not pretty. What has happened with Dak?  In one league, I have both Mahomes and Brady and only used Brady twice this year, snatching a loss from the jaws of victory in both cases.  Those of you follow me know I'm fond of saying "don't get cute" when setting lineups and I did not equate that with Brady starting over Mahomes as such.  Maybe I should have.

How can we hope to project breakout weeks of players like Duke Johnson, Dontrell Hilliard, Tyler Huntley, Gabriel Davis, or even Amon-Ra St. Brown? It's one thing to guess correctly, but it's another thing to be able to do so using analysis, metrics or trends to end up at the result. In the fantasy football expert world, experts and bold assertions are frequent bedfellows. The bolder the call, the longer the lifetime of being able to tout yourself as a great mind when correct. Never mind the overwhelming number of times they have been incorrect. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I'm leaving myself open to these possibilities but I can't in good conscience ever suggest a bold play unless I see variables in the equation which should be considered. And if that is the case, then the play isn't so bold. If you have a bold call you'd like to suggest, simply start your comment with "Am I crazy if I ...."

We have more injuries and late-season coaching hijinx to sift through this week. Toss in the upswing in Covid cases and we've got a recipe for a fantasy tears and flames.  I will do my best to be there for you and look under every stone possible to give you that edge. Good luck out there!

As always, get your questions in early and be sure to label your scoring system and "TNF" players.

Please focus on these following items this week for me to help me get to all the questions:

• Put "TNF" as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
• Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
• Keep your questions as brief as possible - I won't have the screens I'm used to over the next three weeks
• I always try to keep up with responses but, when in doubt, if you have an update post a new question
• Include your "lock" picks of the week who I should be betting on for this week's games

Have a great week!