12 Dynasty Takes for 2021
Inspired by a tweet from Cooper Adams, who was inspired by Matthew Seward, I’ve decided to list some 2021 “hot” takes for 2021.
Love what @Matt2Frosty did with his “hot takes” yday so I’m going to do something similar.
These probably aren’t that spicy, but for every one that misses I’ll donate $10 to @IOCDF.
I’ll keep adding to the thread as I have more.
(All scoring/finishes PPR/g)
— Cooper Adams (@CoopsFB) July 14, 2021
My “hot takes” for 2021!
I’m putting my money where my mouth is this time!
For every prediction I get incorrectly I’ll donate $10 to @nokidhungry!
Injuries/missed time will not affect anything, if they don’t happen they don’t happen, no excuses!
Let’s roll!
— Matthew Seward (@MattCSeward) July 13, 2021
To be clear, these and not all directly from my projections, and I am allowing myself to keep them spicy, but I do think they are reasonable at the same time.
Note: References to fantasy points are PPR Scoring. Player ranks referred to are based on season-long points.
Let’s dig in.
1. Calvin Ridley finishes as the WR1
I made this case on the DLF Youtube channel already. Ridley was a top-12 wide receiver last year both with Julio Jones on the field and without. Because Jones missed so much time last year, the offense still projects to be as potent in 2021 without him, and it just upgraded its second receiver.
Kyle Pitts is likely an upgrade (not from Jones, to be clear) and I think it is well within Ridley’s range of outcomes to become the fantasy WR1 in 2021 if they are more effective as an offense next year because of this. The average age of the top-12 wide receivers is 27 so experience seems to matter in this area as well.
2. Terry McLaurin is a top-12 Wide Receiver
I think McLaurin shapes up to be one of the most likely top-12 breakout candidates in 2021. I just wrote an article about third-year breakouts if you would like to check it out.
The offense is at worst, the same as last year, in my opinion, and McLaurin’s performance on a bad team last year was very impressive.
3. Evan Engram is a top-five Tight End
Engram has maintained a 20% target share the last two years – he has not had less than 17%. His performance, while disappointing last year in drops (which are more descriptive than predictive), has been decent. His fantasy problem has been touchdowns. The Giants had such an abysmal touchdown efficiency in 2020 they project to double in 2021. I think Engram can catch a few of those, and with his role in the offense that is about all it would take.
4. 5. 6. Courtland Sutton, Deebo Samuel, and JuJu Smith-Schuster are their team’s WR1s in points
They are not being drafted this way. While I have various degrees of hope they could finish within fantasy relevance, I mostly feel the edge here is taking the player drafted lower than their teammate.
Both Sutton and Smith-Schuster have shown better production and higher upside than their teammates (Jerry Jeudy and Diontae Johnson) on the depth chart. As for Samuel, I think he has the inside track to higher volume than Brandon Aiyuk in the scheme they both play in.
7. Najee Harris finishes as a top-12 Running Back
Rookie running backs hit more often in the top 12 in their first year. Since 2014, we have never had a year where one rookie did not make the top 12. That is not always our favorite player – or always my favorite player – but it makes sense to lay the bet down on the player I think is the best running back who also has the easiest path to volume in this class. That is Najee Harris.
Despite this, I think it is worth keeping in mind that the hype around Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams and Harris is muted compared to 2020. Their value will likely never hit the level of those from last year’s class. Like Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery before them – who were both top-12 running backs last year but have not received a value increase because of it – once we make up our minds about players as a group, the group rarely changes it.
But I would currently rather bet on 2021 rookie running backs than 2020 sophomores – outside of Jonathan Taylor – at their ADP.
8. 9. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB13) finishes ahead of Antonio Gibson (RB10) and in the top 12
Something clear from second-year breakout running backs in the past is they all increase in volume. Whether they start their career with a 6.4% opportunity share and expand dramatically to a 68.1% share in year two like James Conner, or a 65.3% opportunity score which explodes into an 88.4% share in year two like Le’Veon Bell.
I do not want this to become an article within an article here. So, let me just say this: since the 2020 season has ended, Kansas City seems to have signalled a greater willingness to give their sophomore running back more work compared to Washington based on their actions.
Gibson had the most touches at the position from week one. While his workload did increase between weeks 10-12, so did the workload of JD McKissic or Peyton Barber, indicating it was more game flow or scheme than an increase for Gibson himself. This is a similar pattern to Edwards-Helaire in Kansas City after Bell joined the team in week seven.
Bell had 80 opportunities – rush attempts or targets – in 2020 from week seven onwards. That might not seem like much, but I do not think Bell was “why” Edwards-Helaire was less impressive for most fantasy players in 2020. But it seems to me Kansas City intends to give their sophomore running back more work – or at least that they are comfortable with the idea of having only added free agent Jerick McKinnon.
Meanwhile, Washington has not changed anything save for signing another running back – Lamar Miller.
In short, all 2020 running backs who finished in the top 24 last year make decent cases to be a top-12 hits for the first time in 2021, Edwards-Helaire included.
10. 11. Marquise Brown and Corey Davis are top-24 Wide Receivers, finally
I am not projecting it, in all honesty. But it has been long enough, dang it. I’m all in on their value this year, and as two of my favorite rookie profiles who have failed to meet expectations in dynasty, I like to believe they can finally cross this Rubicon of a breakout line.
I think Brown is underrated (see my last article on third-year breakouts) and Davis enters a situation where the only player who might be better than him is a rookie who (probably) will not take on a huge role early.
Both have been flirting with the top 24 since being drafted and I hope it is time for them to finally cross over.
12. No rookie Wide Receiver will have over 1,000 receiving yards or a top-15 finish
I think one might, but that did not feel strong enough. While 2021 is a strong class, it is unlikely to be the same as 2020, and the current ADP looks to have a slight hangover effect from those amazing rookie seasons.
Since 2014, we have had a rookie wide receiver produce over 1,000 yards five out of seven years. We also had two in 2014. However, that still puts the balance lower than once a year in that time.
This does not mean they will not have good seasons, or even will not be fantasy-relevant for a significant stretch in 2021. But I think expectations are too high right now, and this is the line I am drawing.
Bonus Takes:
- CeeDee Lamb finishes outside the top 12
- Tutu Atwell plays this year, does not “die on the field because he’s so small”, and is actually good
- Buffalo passes for fewer touchdowns
- The league passes for fewer touchdowns
- The Ravens pass more often (about five times a game)
- Saquon Barkley is the overall RB…2
- Nick Chubb and JK Dobbins expand their role and turn out to be values
- Rashod Bateman is the highest-scoring rookie wide receiver
Anyway, those are all the hot takes I can dream up today.
Let me know which ones you like, don’t like or what dynasty hot takes you have that I might have missed.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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