Dynasty League Football

Dynasty

The Value of Trading a 2021 Pick for a 2022 Pick in Your Rookie Drafts

Should you get out of rookie drafts this year and look to the future? We examine the strategy.

Spencer Rattler

Should you get out of rookie drafts this year and look to the future? We examine the strategy.

GET IN THE GAME!

Gain Instant Access to this article and so much more.

A full year of access is only $49.99.

Try DLF Premium for only $7.99 with a Monthly Subscription.

Premium membership provides access to all of our awesome dynasty content for an entire year. You also gain access to the best dynasty fantasy football resources in the industry. Including...

• The best dynasty rankings in the industry
• Dynasty, Rookie & Superflex ADP
• Dynasty Trade Analyzer and other tools
• Our annual Dynasty & Rookie Draft Guides
• 365 days of content, tools, advice and support
• And so much more!

Join DLF Today!

Want more info about DLF Premium?
Find out more

Have questions or need some help?
Contact Us

Already a DLF Premium Member?
Log in now!

The Value of Trading a 2021 Pick for a 2022 Pick in Your Rookie Drafts
8 Comments
5 4 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Justin Harding
3 days ago

So your ok with trading like 2021 1.04-1.06 straight up for a 2022 1st?

elliob
Reply to  Justin Harding
3 days ago

I wouldn’t do that. My general rule is for a current year 1st, I would need the following: One 1st next year, one 2nd current year, another asset (maybe 2nd or 3rd for next year)

Justin Harding
Reply to  elliob
3 days ago

Thanks and That makes sense to me. I just couldn’t tell if you were ok with that.

I was in a 1 QB draft last week where a guy traded the 1.06 for a random 2022 1st straight up (announced it in the GroupMe, will accept 1st offer) & I thought it was insane. so this article was perfect timing. Nice work BTW

Justin Harding
3 days ago

In 1QB, sorry for not stating that

Drew Elsberry
3 days ago

In my 1 QB league, after snagging Chase at 1.3 (thrilled!) I was offered next year’s 1st & 2nd for my 2.3 & 3.3 and I took it. I was about to take Fields at 2.3.

This article reaffirms my feeling that I made the right decision.

Thanks.

Justin Wellman
2 days ago

I’m actually a bit torn on this issue. I’ve managed to stockpile a bunch of second round picks this year in our SF (2.01, 2.02, 2.06 and 2.07). Based on current projections, I should be able to grab Mac Jones and/or a day 1 WR with the earlier picks.

With the drop in value after 2.04 there doesn’t seem to be a lot of interest in my 2.06 and 2.07 picks.

Shaun Tetreault
2 days ago

I totally agree with the article. I was able to get Lawrence at 1.06 and 1.08 in two dynasties. But in my 3rd I traded my late 1st for 2 established players. Also I regularly use this strategy to build up future draft capital. I’m to the point now after 4 years of doing it where I have multiple 1st and 2nds in all 3 leagues over the next 3 drafts. It gets really fun once you fill up your draft bank account. I can trade small portions of each draft to fill up future drafts. It never ends once you get it started effectively.

6gummybearsandsomescotch
2 days ago

John,
With all due respect, while I support the strategy of trading picks for vets (almost always a good idea) or trading into stronger drafts, I have a couple issues with this article.

  1. None of the reasons you list above involve these prospects being bad football players. To label a class as bad, I feel the talent of the prospects needs to be sub-optimal like 2019 when we were taking Darrell Henderson and Paris Campbell in the 1st round. We did get some studs for sure, but mostly the 2019 class has had a poor ROI. I took your advice and traded out of that class for Godwin and 2020 picks so I agree with your strategy, just not for 2021.
  2. I went through my league’s 12 years of drafts and could only find 3 years where there was significant depth by the end of the second round (2013, 2017 & 2020). In fact, most rookie drafts only yield 6 or 7 decent prosepcts and very few studs over 6 rounds in one QB! 2009 and 2010 were particularly awful and 2013 wasn’t far behind. Even in 2014 with all the stud WR’s, the rest of the draft is pretty forgettable. Bishop Sankey RB1, anyone (LOL)? Let’s remember that last year, there were significant question marks about Antonio Gibson, Aiyuk, Dillon and Claypool too.
  3. Examining the rankings you have for the 2022 class, there is no way I’m passing on Toney, Carter, Friermeuth, et al. for Carson Strong (Devy QB8?) or Zamir White in 1QB. I am absolutely trying to trade out of 2022 into 2023 next year since my league only trades picks one year out. John Metchie over Elijah Moore? No thanks. 2023 should be stacked and I definitely see where you can make a significant investment if don’t mind the risk. It generally follows that we have a great draft, a decent draft, then a not so great one (2017= maybe best ever, 2018= Not bad but definitely busts, 2019= uninspiring at best).
  4. As far as the combine, we’re always told the combine doesn’t matter (and it doesn’t) so why would it matter when we don’t have one?
  5. For data and analytics, we have multiple years of film on most of the top guys. A lot of them were supposed to come out last year and could have been high rookie picks and a majority of others are devy darlings with early breakouts. It’s not like Waldman and Rotoviz are only using 2020 film and neither is DLF in their rookie breakdowns. There are always the Toneys, Sermons and Rondales that pop up in any draft that carry risk because of a shortage of film.
  6. The poor RB draft capital is following a trend that seems to be the new norm. Also, we knew this RB class was weak and teams stocked up last year or in free agency so this shouldn’t be a surprise or an indictment of the other positions. Oddly, we didn’t see as many head scratchers as last year, except of course my Rams with the worst pick in the draft, LOL.

I feel like there was a correction of this class being overhyped prior to the draft and that post draft, we realized maybe it’s not as strong as 2020, and it isn’t. That said, I am seeing multiple sites with this “sky is falling” take on this rookie class and I think that is an overcorrection. These prospects have done nothing between the last college game and now to show they have declined in ability more so than any other draft class. At worst, this class will probably be like most others and certainly carries more boom/bust players than last year. At best though, the class lives up to it’s ability and yields an above average crop of WR’s, QB’s and maybe even a sleeper TE or two. I feel this is at the heart of why we subscribe to DLF; to learn where the value is and scout better than our league mates. The 3rd round rookie MFL ADP is particularly awful and reflects that the 4th round may yield some fantastic values. If you’re rebuilding like me, I’d be buying the dip on these picks. As always, I love your articles John and thanks for the forum to discuss and share opinions. Just my take and I’m probably wrong, LOL.

To Top