2021 Rookies Destined to be Underdrafted
The NFL Draft has come and gone. All the research, hype and planning has been completed and rookie drafts have begun. After a look at ADP, let us talk about four rookies destined to be underdrafted and why you should not let it happen in your rookie draft.
Mac Jones, QB NE (Superflex ADP 1.12)
Thank goodness for the 2021 quarterback class. As this lackluster class continues to emerge, the saving grace of the slate is numerous pedigreed options at the QB position. In a year where the position has never been valued higher with nine going in the first round of startup drafts, dynasty teams with a positional need have flexibility within the first round of rookie drafts. At the back end, sitting squarely at the QB5 position is Jones.
Aside from Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance (all of whom already sit in the top 12 at the QB position), Jones has been knocked for his lack of rushing and the perception that he has a lower ceiling. After being selected with the 15th pick in round one by the Patriots, Jones feels very much like a placeholder and an uninspiring pick this year despite his profile warranting his ADP. For more specific profile information on Jones, check out the NFL Draft Prospect profile article and the Rookie Update profile on New England’s future signal-caller.
Why is Jones undervalued? Two reasons. One, he is a quarterback, with pedigree, with guaranteed opportunity coming and in a good organization. In a lackluster class that is weak at running back, Jones feels like a safe selection at 1.09-1.12 in superflex and a great bailout option for a contending team that lacks quarterbacks. Worried about early opportunity? Fear not. Since 2016, rookie quarterbacks drafted in the top 15 sit for an average of 3.22 games, including Patrick Mahomes sitting for 15 in 2017. Translation? Jones will start this year, at least at some point.
Secondly, the position has never been more heavily valued in dynasty. According to May superflex ADP, 29 quarterbacks are going in the first 7.5 rounds of startup drafts. With teams cycling through starters at a faster rate, the name of the game is to hoard the position and play the market.
Jones is a great back-fill replacement for a team losing Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and potentially Ben Roethlisberger or Tom Brady. He is a hedge against a manager worried about the future of Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins. Target Jones as early as the 1.09 in a 12-team superflex and know at the back third of the first round you have a very solid chance of landing him.
Terrace Marshall, WR CAR (Superflex ADP 2.04)
I am going back to the well with Marshall after we saw his landing spot in Carolina with pick 27 in the second round. Based on May’s rookie ADP, he is firmly at the 2.04, slightly ahead of Rondale Moore and the sixth wide receiver off the board. This tier is assuredly a wide receiver heavy range and despite the profiles being solid, my first strategy is to trade out of the range for a future first round pick (in 2022 or 2023) or for a veteran receiver.
If you are unsuccessful in trading the pick and are forced to make the selection, shift your mindset into a path to value. As I noted in my pre-draft profile on Marshall, he presents the height/weight/speed (and not capital) profile to achieve “alpha” status with a big rookie season. A highly-regarded offensive mind with Joe Brady and reasonable wide receiver room competition in Robby Anderson is not overly daunting to prevent Marshall from having a big rookie season. IF he pops in year one, expect his pedigree and profile to rise above his other peers in the class and give you a path to flip him for a profit next season.
How do I maximize my Marshall pick? If you are sitting at 1.12 or later in your superflex draft, the chances of being in a spot to take a non-wide receiver are low. Understand that you are almost surely taking a receiver if you go best player available, and attempt to move to the back of the tier and select Marshall.
Other managers may be targeting Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore or Elijah Moore, and you can try to add a future pick or move up elsewhere in the draft to move toward the back of the tier and still secure Marshall. Otherwise, you likely must take him with any pick you have in this range if there is no move to be had. As drafts continue to unfold, moving out of this tier for any extra value has proven difficult. If you only have one pick, make it Marshall.
Chuba Hubbard, RB CAR (Superflex ADP 3.02)
How quickly things change. One year ago, we would not have expected to see Hubbard in the third round of rookie drafts. After a disappointing 2020 season and underwhelming pro day, his unceremonious fall from grace has continued into rookie drafts despite being the eighth at his position off the board – picked at 4.21 by the Carolina Panthers.
The community is fading the landing spot because of Christian McCaffrey. And it is not unfair. After all, McCaffrey is the highest-valued running back in dynasty and likely blocks Hubbard short-term. However, let us look a bit deeper into his price and why he is my highest-drafted player in my personal rookie drafts (I have nine teams with Hubbard).
Situations change. McCaffrey is going into his fifth season. His 1,002 touches in his first four years are a lot and he finally showed his mortality in 2020, missing 13 games with injury. Mike Davis averaged 16.61 touches per game in his absence and he left in free agency to Atlanta. Hubbard can fill-in directly for Davis and possesses the three-down skill-set necessary to automatically assume the “next man up” role we covet in fantasy.
The class is weak. In addition to what is stated above, the thought of taking a non-guaranteed contributor is easier to stomach when those you are choosing him over are weak. The three wide receivers going right ahead of Hubbard are Dyami Brown (2.09), Amari Rodgers (2.10) and Nico Collins (3.01). All three are flawed prospects with third-round draft capital. With the saturation at wide receiver in dynasty, the pick of Hubbard over an average pedigree wideout in this range is easier to make. The impact of any usable weeks for him are of greater impact due to positional scarcity.
Pedigree. He has been covered ad nauseam with numerous articles on this site for years but do not forget Hubbard’s pedigree and his past. Had he opted out of the 2020 college season; his perception might be much higher. Curiously, Kenneth Gainwell, drafted a round later in the NFL Draft is going at 2.11, three slots higher. Do not make this mistake as noted below!
Anthony Schwartz, WR CLE (Superflex ADP 4.03)
I saved the most disrespected value for last. As noted above, the receivers going at the end of the second/early third round were all third-round NFL draft picks. Josh Palmer (3.04) was also selected in the third round by the Chargers. Curiously, the dynasty community is ignoring Schwartz.
Despite landing in Cleveland at pick 3.28 and being the youngest receiver in the class, Schwartz is getting little buzz. This is surprising considering his elite speed and production profile cemented by a landing spot with an efficient quarterback. I cannot quite explain why there is no respect for Schwartz, but I will continue to draft him and not look back.
He is best targeted in deeper leagues where you have a wider net threshold of starters at the wide receiver and flex position. Best ball dynasty leagues are also a ripe place to target Schwartz a bit earlier than his ADP. He is my 2021 version of KJ Hamler and is one of the few picks you can make and expect to wait a few years for it to pay off. I am gambling on the fastest player ever to enter the NFL.
CONCLUSION
ADP is ever-changing. However, the further away your draft, the more efficient your league will be at selections. Shoot your shot by getting “your guys” if you are unable to trade up. The top ten is a coveted group in 2021 and I would not blame you if you sold the farm to move up into this range and avoid picking in the rest of the draft. The class is that poor.
If you want to get into the draft, be aggressive by using the DLF Trade Analyzer to find a deal if you do not have any picks and want a specific player. I am all for zigging when others are zagging (getting out of this class) and I have laid out a few shots to fire in this article. Each of these player selections highlight good values and looking at your overall roster and player portfolio like a stock will go a long way to helping you build a true dynasty!
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- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
