NFL Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football: Day One IDP Recap
There’s no spectacle in sport quite like the Super Bowl, but for NFL fans, day one of the NFL Draft comes close. From a dynasty IDP perspective, the 2021 version was unique as we saw no interior defensive linemen or safeties selected. It was also odd not to see any edge rushers come off the board in the top half of the first round, but by the end of the night, six ended up becoming first-round picks.
Some top pre-draft IDP favorites, including linebacker/safety Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, linebacker Nick Bolton, and edge rusher Azeez Ojulari are still on the board, leaving some serious intrigue here for day two. Here’s a positional look at the first round from an IDP perspective:
Edge Rushers
Jaelan Phillips, MIA
At 1.18, Phillips was the first edge off the board despite his concussion history. It’s a fairly universal opinion that Phillips, with his size, quickness, versatility and production, is the best edge rush prospect in the draft class. The big question was the multiple concussions at UCLA. He suffered either three or four concussions, causing him to retire before transferring to Miami and sitting out 2019 before wreaking havoc in 2020.
He should be classified as a defensive end in Miami in non-true position formats, so if you can live with the concussion risk, he should be one of your top IDP targets in rookie drafts. Having a stellar cornerback corps that includes Xavien Howard and Byron Jones covering up the back end only buys more time for Phillips to get to the quarterback.
Kwity Paye, IND
Considered by many to be the safest edge rusher, Paye – No. 1 on Bruce Feldman’s Freak List – was the Colts’ selection at 1.21. Paye goes to a team in dire need of hitting on an edge prospect. Kemoko Turay simply hasn’t fulfilled his promise, and I’m not sure Ben Banogu ever had much to begin with. Paye should see nice snaps pretty early on in a rotation that’s likely to include a veteran still on the street. Given Phillips’ concussion history and the zero percent chance he’ll be classified as anything other than an end, I’ll probably end up with Paye as my top rookie edge.
Payton Turner, NO
Long-armed and explosive, Turner was a bit of a surprise selection by the Saints at 1.28. He has a relentless motor that makes him fun to watch, but with Cameron Jordan locked into three more seasons and Marcus Davenport in the fold through 2022 (the Saints picked up his fifth-year option earlier in the day), he’s not walking into a prime spot for immediate snaps.
The good news is he’ll be classified as a defensive end everywhere, and where he slots on your rookie edge draft board will likely depend on whether you’re in a true position league or not. He’s not likely going to be a big target of mine just because of the lack of early opportunity. If you like him and fail to land him later in your rookie drafts, keep tabs on him and make a move for him in a year or so.
Greg Rousseau, BUF
Buffalo going edge at 1.30 seemed fairly predictable, given the fact Jerry Hughes is 33 and Mario Addison is 34 and both are under contract for just one more season. Rousseau leaves the heat of Miami for the bitter cold of Buffalo. Standing almost 6-foot-7 and boasting long arms and huge hands, Rousseau brings length and explosion off the edge. For fantasy, he won the landing spot lottery, and will be classified as an end instead of an outside linebacker.
Jayson Oweh, BAL
The freakiest of all athletic edge rushing freaks, Oweh landed in Baltimore at 1.31, and it’s a death knell to his fantasy outlook in leagues that don’t combine defensive end and outside linebackers into an edge spot or don’t reward higher points for sacks for linebackers.
I still think he’s the best NFL edge prospect given his ridiculous athletic traits, and his real-life path to playing time is good with the Ravens currently sporting Tyus Bowser and Pernell McPhee atop their edge depth chart (a more established veteran is sure to join that group after we get past May 5th, however). While Oweh failed to tally a single sack in 2020, he was still fairly disruptive. His fantasy value is just going to be totally league-specific.
Joe Tryon, TB
Like Rousseau, Tryon opted out of the 2020 season, and he still made it into the first round (to the Buccaneers at 1.32) due to his size, athletic traits and upside. Also, like 2020, Tryon might not see the field in 2021, as he’s behind Shaquil Barrett (under contract through 2023) and Jason Pierre-Paul, who at 32 has one year remaining on his contract. With JPP still an impactful presence, Tryon will be slow to see snaps for sure in 2021 – and perhaps beyond. In addition, edges in Tampa Bay are classified as outside linebackers in non-true position formats, so his value is pretty league specific. As a result, he won’t rank terribly high on my IDP draft board.
Off-ball Linebackers
Micah Parsons, DAL
After missing out on the top two cornerbacks, Dallas traded back to 1.12 and selected Parsons. A physical specimen with the athletic testing numbers to drool over, Parsons comes with some character issues – so, yes, it’s the ultimate Cowboys pick. He’s a definite three-down linebacker with his coverage skills and pass rush ability, but he may be slow to work his way into every-down snaps with Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch already in the fold. And that’s not even considering Keanu Neal, who when he signed with Dallas in the off-season was reported to be moving to weakside linebacker.
I think this means the oft-injured Vander Esch, who is entering his fourth year in the NFL, is in his final season in Dallas. Neal, who has his own history of concerning injuries, may be a one-and-done option in Big D, or he may simply stick at box safety. Smith likely isn’t going anywhere due to his contract, so after 2021 it is likely Smith and Parsons as three-down options.
The maturity issues do worry me, but Parsons is more likely to boom than bust. If you believe in him, you shouldn’t be afraid to make him the first IDP off the board in your rookie drafts.
Zaven Collins, ARI
Uh oh. Collins, an odd ball as an off-ball linebacker at 6-foot-4 and 270 pounds, found an uninspiring landing spot in the desert at pick 1.16. Despite the size, Collins has the sideline-to-sideline speed and coverage ability you want in a modern-day, three-down linebacker. But he added ten pounds between his pro day and the medical recheck in Indianapolis, spurring some speculation that teams may view him as a pass rusher.
After failing miserably in its attempt to convert Haason Reddick to an inside linebacker, Arizona mismanaged top ten selection Isaiah Simmons just a year ago. The fear of the unknown with how the Cardinals will use Collins drops him in my eyes, even though post-draft Arizona said it would use him as the MIKE ‘backer. That’s really bad news for Jordan Hicks (he has two years left on his contract but the final year sets him up nicely to be a cap casualty). Either way, I’ve lost enough trust in Arizona to drop Collins a bit in my IDP rookie rankings. This one’s a fantasy headache – I hate it for Simmons, Collins and Hicks.
Jamin Davis, WAS
Now we’re talking. Davis, who no one was talking about in January, was snapped up at 1.19 to a team with all kinds of opportunity at off-ball linebacker. Washington has Jon Bostic and not much else, and he’s not very good anyway, so Davis should be an immediate three-down option. If you want the safe play in a tackle-heavy format, Davis is probably your top IDP rookie.
Cornerbacks
Jaycee Horn, CAR
Horn was somewhat surprisingly the first defensive player to come off the board at 1.08. Not only did the Panthers double down on their Sam Darnold investment by bypassing Justin Fields, but they continued an impressive draft run of defensive players with Matt Rhule (remember all seven selections from 2020 were used on the defensive side of the ball).
Horn was touted as the best available press-man corner in the draft. Cornerbacks are always valued at a premium, and Carolina is likely looking to field even more dime looks next season. The Panthers brought in veterans A.J. Bouye and Rashaan Melvin in the off-season to join Donte Jackson and Troy Pride Jr. Horn should get snaps right off the bat. Picking cornerbacks for your fantasy lineups is typically a week-to-week proposition, so don’t spend any of your valuable rookie picks on corners. At least wait until the seventh round.
Patrick Surtain II, DEN
Most draftniks pegged Surtain as the first defensive selection. He still went in the top ten, going at 1.09 to Denver, where he joins Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby and Bryce Callahan in a loaded and experienced cornerback room. For that reason, you’re probably not going to see Surtain play major snaps in his rookie season. He’ll probably turn out to be a really good NFL player – just not much of a fantasy asset.
Caleb Farley, TEN
Always willing to take a chance on the best talent, Tennessee at rolled the dice on Farley at 1.22, who profiled as a potential top ten pick but slid due to concerns with the shape of his back. “I used to have back issues” is not something I’ve ever heard anyone say, at least with a straight face. Tennessee needed a corner, so I don’t blame them for taking the chance on Farley, but I’m leaving him on the board in my rookie drafts.
Greg Newsome, CLE
Newsome, Cleveland’s pick at 1.26, is a little light at 192 pounds, but he sticks like glue. He’ll have time to add some muscle mass as a developmental corner working behind Denzel Ward, Troy Hill and Greedy Williams, should he be able to return to health. I’m not seeing a fantasy asset.
Eric Stokes, GB
The Packers pounced on Stokes, who offers serious speed and athletic traits, at pick No. 29. Green Bay has stud Jaire Alexander on one side of course, and Stokes should be the long-term option on the other side once Kevin King plays out his one-year deal. The real story in Green Bay is that management again bypassed the opportunity to add a first-round weapon for Aaron Rodgers. The NFL’s MVP was looking for another reason to be unhappy with team brass, right?
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