2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Zach Wilson, QB BYU
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft prospect Zach Wilson, QB from BYU. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
I think most dynasty managers know about Zach Wilson, the star quarterback prospect out of BYU. He’s a consensus top-five pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a strong contender for the QB2 spot in the class behind Trevor Lawrence. However, Wilson is a somewhat controversial prospect, especially in dynasty circles. Let’s jump into the breakdown!
The Stats
Wilson had a three-year career at BYU, where he found varied success.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
In 2018, Wilson competed with senior Tanner Mangum, splitting time almost equally. He didn’t manage anything too impressive on the field, although he did throw 12 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions. After 2018, Mangum graduated, opening the door for Wilson to become the clear starter.
He beat out Baylor Romney for the starting job to open 2019, starting nine total games. Unfortunately, he missed some time with a hand injury, limiting his statistical totals. But considering that he only completed 62.4% of his passes and averaged 7.5 yards/attempt, Wilson wasn’t an NFL prospect after 2019. If anything, he wasn’t even BYU’s clear starting quarterback, as he needed to compete with Romney to start the 2020 season.
However, once Wilson won that competition, he suddenly turned into a monster. Looking at his 2020 stats, he vaulted to a fantastic 73.5 completion percentage, 11.0 yards/attempt, 33 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He also turned into a rushing touchdown machine, scoring ten on the season.
The DLF College Market Share app is an excellent way to visualize college statistics plotted against successful players at the position.
For example, here’s Wilson AY/A compared to the average successful fantasy quarterback. As you can see, Wilson far exceeded the average in his final season, but he was nothing special in his first two seasons. But I think most readers would expect such results, as Wilson is truly only a draft prospect based on his 2020 season.
Of course, a draft prospect can succeed with only one strong college season, with Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray as recent solid examples. But some high-profile one-season wonders flopped in the NFL, including Dwayne Haskins. Overall, there are few flaws in Wilson’s 2020 statistical season, but it was only one year against the inferior competition BYU played as an independent school. Wilson may translate to the NFL, but he’s certainly a risky prospect solely based on his college statistics.
The Film
Like I said in my Kenneth Gainwell article, I’m certainly no film guru. The quarterback position is exceptionally difficult to judge, especially as the mental component is more important than any other position. Sometimes both analytical and film studies miss the most critical real-life factors, which are a quarterback’s mindset, professionalism, and desire to succeed in the NFL.
With that said, I jumped into the DLF film room to choose a game from Wilson’s college career to analyze in detail. I picked Wilson’s strong performance against Boise State, who were ranked #21 in the nation at the time. He led BYU to a 51-17 win in that contest, completing 22 of his 28 passes for 360 yards and three touchdowns. He also added a rushing touchdown in that game.
After watching his full game tape, I came away seeing Wilson’s performance as a mixed bag. He had some significant positives, including exceptional pocket mobility. I loved how he consistently avoided the pass rush, buying himself time in the pocket. When confronted with defenders, he displayed fantastic toughness and a willingness to take on larger players. He also demonstrated success throwing to all areas of the field, looking solid on deep and shallow throws and both over the middle and the sidelines. Plus, his arm strength held up, even when throwing on the run.
However, Wilson had some significant flaws, even in this strong game. He often tried to do way too much, resulting in a sack on one memorable play. That type of “hero ball” will not succeed against the talented defenders in the NFL, especially given Wilson’s relative lack of speed. He’s not a slow quarterback by any means, but he’s not a running quarterback. There is no way he will escape the type of edge rushers and linebackers he will see in the NFL. He also made a few risky throws, which may have resulted in interceptions against NFL defenders.
Overall, Wilson was a solid prospect, and I believe he’s ready to play in the NFL. He displayed the intangibles and arm strength needed to succeed as an NFL quarterback, and most of the issues surrounded poor decision-making. He will also need to adapt his style to stay in the pocket more often, as he doesn’t possess the necessary speed to run all over the field in the NFL. But his pocket mobility is his best trait, so he should succeed there as well.
The Measurables
Wilson skipped most of the physical testing at his pro day, and he chose only to do the following pure physical measurements.
- Height: 6’2″ (34th percentile)
- Weight: 214 (24th)
- Hands: 9 1/2 (47th)
Measurements courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
I honestly don’t care one bit about any of these numbers. We knew how tall Wilson is, and we knew that he wasn’t going to be the heaviest quarterback. I prefer to use the statistics and tape to judge a quarterback instead of these mostly meaningless size numbers. If it matters, Wilson excelled in throwing drills at his pro day, which locked in his spot at number two overall to the Jets, according to most NFL scouts.
Dynasty Value
Since Wilson is a quarterback, his dynasty value is wildly different in 1QB and superflex rookie mocks. In 1QB data, he came in as the QB3 and 26th overall in February’s data, well behind Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. He gained a slight bump in March to 23rd overall, but he remained the QB3. The same trend held in April’s data, although he rose to 20th overall. In all three months, Wilson finished a few spots ahead of Trey Lance and well ahead of Mac Jones. In March’s 1QB startup ADP, Wilson was the QB18.
However, his superflex value is far more intriguing. Wilson entered February’s data as the fifth overall player and QB3, one spot ahead of Lance and behind Lawrence, Fields, Najee Harris, and Ja’Marr Chase. He then maintained that exact spot in March’s data. But in April, Wilson fell to seventh overall behind Lance and Travis Etienne. Even though DLF’s data comes from ten rookie mocks, I don’t buy this trend as representative, especially after Wilson’s strong pro day. I believe his February and March value is more accurate.
In March’s superflex startup ADP, Wilson was the QB19 and the 49th overall selection. That makes him an early fifth-round pick in startup drafts. For some context, some non-quarterbacks in his value range included Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Austin Ekeler, Darren Waller, Chris Godwin, and Tee Higgins. But remember that data came before free agency, so there could be a shakeup in April’s startup mocks.
Conclusion
To conclude, I think the dynasty market has a relatively good handle on Wilson’s value. I understand that he is a risky pick, but so are Lance and Jones. Wilson is my rookie QB3, behind Lawrence and Fields, and I believe he should rank fifth overall in superflex rookie rankings, exactly where he was in February and March. I fully expect the Jets to select Wilson with the second overall pick as their new starter after they traded Sam Darnold to the Panthers.
He’s not my favorite quarterback in the class, so I likely won’t select him in 1QB leagues. I would take a running back or wide receiver instead. But in superflex leagues, I’m happy to add Wilson to my dynasty rosters, especially if he falls outside the top-five picks. Many people in the dynasty community don’t like Wilson, which could cause his price to drop in a specific league. If that happens, take advantage.
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