Monkey Knife Fight Super Bowl Prop Picks
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Since I’ve had so much fun playing on Monkey Knife Fight throughout the season, I thought I’d share a few of my favorite props for Sunday’s big game.
Tampa Bay v.s. Kansas City
The last time these two teams played (in Tampa Bay back in November) the game wasn’t nearly as close as the 27-24 final score in favor of Kansas City indicated. The Chiefs dominated early as Patrick Mahomes threw for 462 yards and three scores to Tyreek Hill, who finished with 13 catches for 269 yards and all three of Mahomes’ touchdowns. The Bucs did their best to catch up, scoring two late touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough. I expect a lot of the same in Sunday’s game with a lot of hits on the “more” in the passing game and “less” on rushing numbers as both defenses are prone to giving up yards through the air.
Mahomes/Brady: Passing Yards More or Less
The Bucs have one of the premiere run defenses in the league so there is little doubt Andy Reid will air things out early and often and is unlikely to take his foot off the gas even if the Chiefs jump out to a two touchdown lead early. The 336 passing yards actually seem like it could be close to Mahomes’ floor considering the strengths of the Kansas City offense and the weaknesses of Tampa’s defense.
Meanwhile, although the Chiefs’ defense have been up and down all year and have struggled against the run at times, subscribing to a game script that has Bruce Arians and Tom Brady committing to the run is difficult to do. Brady fell behind early in this Matchup in week 12 and aired it out to the tune of 345 yards and will have to once again push the ball downfield to keep up with the Chiefs. In a game that promises a few quick scores and lots of possessions, I think he reaches 306 yards, but it might be close.
Kelce/Fournette: Receiving or Rushing Yards More or Less
Taking the “more” on any player with a number over 100 yards is risky business in most cases but Travis Kelce has been as close to automatic as a player can get over the last three months. He’s reached 104 yards in seven of his last 10 games. Granted, one of those games that he missed the mark came against the Buccaneers but he still reached 82 yards in a career game for Tyreek Hill who was running free in the secondary for the entire first half. My gut tells me he’s Mahomes’ top target Sunday night and will coast past 104 receiving yards.
The fact Kelce’s receiving total is pitted up against Leonard Fournette at 59.5 rushing yards makes this my favorite prop of the game. Fournette reached 60 rushing yards just three times in 16 games this year (including the playoffs) and although two of those games (93 yards at Washington and 63 yards at New Orleans) have come in the playoffs, it’s difficult to believe he gets more than a dozen carries in a game that projects as a shootout. Ronald Jones is still a factor in the offense and while a case can be made that Tampa Bay needs to control the ball to win, I simply don’t believe Arians will commit to that game plan.
Kelce/Godwin: Fantasy Points More or Less
Kelce has at least 10 targets and at least seven catches in each of his last 10 games which creates an ideal floor for taking the “more” on his 23.5 point prop. Averaging 114 yards and scoring nine touchdowns in that stretch, it’s unlikely he slows down anytime soon. Although he will probably need to score to hit the “more” I think (and most of Vegas agrees) he’s one of if not the most likely to find pay dirt in the game.
On the other side, Chris Godwin has been the most heavily targeted Buccaneers pass catcher since Christmas and if not for a few key dropped passes, would have breezed past 15.5 fantasy points every game for the last five weeks. Brady will be looking to Godwin often as he has the best matchup among Tampa Bay receivers, working in the middle of the Chiefs defense. Even with Antonio Brown back for this game, I expect seven to ten catches and 80-plus receiving yards so he can reach this number without scoring – which makes him an ideal “more” play.
6x Your Buy-In Rapidfire
If you’re looking for a larger game with a bigger payout, the “6x your buy in Rapidfire” game might be the one for you. I already explained why I like Mahomes and Godwin so much and feel like they have good odds to overcome their competition despite giving up yards to Brady and Evans, respectively. The question is whether you like Kelce or Hill to rack up more receiving yards which I see as a toss-up. Personally, I’m taking Hill because he can get such huge chunks but as you read above, Kelce is just as likely to outduel him with volume. Because I’m confident in the other two, I’ll be rolling the dice that I guess correctly on Kelce v. Hill.
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