2021 Dynasty Capsule: New England Patriots
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Eleven seasons. Prior to a frustrating 2020 season, that was the streak for the New England Patriots not only making the playoffs, but winning the AFC East. In hindsight this level of dominance in a league full of parity should go down in history as equivalent to the feats of all-time sports greats like Tiger Woods, Serena Williams, Muhammad Ali and Michael Jordan. A bust in Canton awaits head coach Bill Belichick, but after a 7-9 season, there’s work to be done now.
The first Tom Brady-less season had its ups (wins over Baltimore, Miami and Oakland), downs (blowout losses to Buffalo, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams), and intrigue (a thriller with Seattle and a deceptively close contest with Kansas City), but will ultimately go down as a failure. Deficient on offense due to injury and overall talent, and defense due to COVID-19 opt-outs, expectations were understandably tempered, but this is a fanbase that anticipates success no matter what, not a total absence of top-40 PPR running backs, top-50 receivers, and top-60 tight ends. Let’s dive in to figure out exactly what went wrong.
Quarterbacks
| Name | Comp. | Att. | Comp. % | Yards | YPA | TD | INT | Fantasy Points | Rank |
| Cam Newton* | 242 | 368 | 65.8 | 2657 | 7.2 | 8 | 10 | 296.1 | QB20 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 22 | 44 | 50.0 | 256 | 5.8 | 2 | 3 | 21.5 | QB54 |
| Brian Hoyer | 15 | 24 | 62.5 | 130 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 | 7.3 | QB67 |
*137 rushes for 592 yards (4.3 YPC) and 12 touchdowns
Cam Newton (ADP = 235.50, QB34)
Brought into Foxboro in July as a last-minute pre-camp signing on the cheap (one-year, $1.75 million), Newton injected a sense of optimism lacking under the prospective Jarrett Stidham-led offense. It was believed he was over the shoulder and foot injuries that cost him time in 2018 and 2019 and appeared to hamper his abilities to both throw and run. Pundits everywhere once again lauded Belichick for his ability to seemingly fill a major gap, and do so in a thrifty manner.
Things started out well. Newton ran roughshod over the Dolphins in week one (two rushing scores) and immolated the Seahawks in a last-second loss in week two (nearly 450 total yards and three scores). A win over the Raiders mitigated modest week three stats, which is where the trouble began. Newton contracted COVID-19, missed a week four contest versus the Chiefs, and returned to post pedestrian statistics in losses to the Broncos, 49ers and Bills. Wins over the Jets and Ravens and a big statistical day over the Texans offered some hope, but following that Newton would only eclipse 200 passing yards twice over the final six weeks of the season.
Newton will likely go down as the greatest running quarterback of all time, and is a threat for double-digit rushing scores each and every season. His rushing stats alone would’ve seen him finish as the 2020 PPR RB36 (and non-PPR RB25), after all. But 177 weekly passing yards and an abysmal 0.53 weekly passing touchdowns just won’t get it done in today’s NFL. Newton ultimately finished as a low-end QB2, appearing to be far from healthy and lacking the ability to drive the football by the end of the year, and not surprisingly the New England beat doesn’t anticipate a 2021 return to the team. Rightfully, he is off the dynasty radar, and until (if?) he proves his health he’s best kept at the end of superflex benches only.
Jarrett Stidham (ADP = NR)
Talk is cheap and actions speak louder than words. A preponderance of off-season puffery was overshadowed by the signing of Newton, effectively relegating Stidham to holding the clipboard. In perhaps the gravest insult of his young career, when Newton was placed on the COVID-19 list it was actually veteran Brian Hoyer who got the start versus Kansas City, though Stidham did eventually see playing time (tossing two interceptions). All told, Stidham saw mop-up action in five games, never eclipsing 13 passing attempts or 64 passing yards, finishing with more interceptions than scores.
It’s my personal belief Stidham received the mythical “Belichick Bump,” with the thinking he and Josh McDaniels could mold the Auburn product into a functional starting quarterback. This belies his fourth-round draft status, showing once again that the vast majority of late-round quarterbacks indeed do not become Brady. Despite only finishing his second season, Stidham’s NFL career is already on life support, and his dynasty value is non-existent.
Brian Hoyer (ADP = NR)
Hoyer the Destroyer had his requisite yearly cup of coffee in the league, face-planting versus the Chiefs before being summarily demoted back to the team’s QB3. He’s been a fun story as a less-talented, hairless Ryan Fitzpatrick, but there’s no dynasty relevance here.
Running Backs
| Name | Att | Yards | YPC | TD | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR Points | Rank |
| James White | 35 | 121 | 3.5 | 2 | 62 | 49 | 375 | 1 | 116.6 | RB42 |
| Rex Burkhead | 67 | 274 | 4.1 | 3 | 33 | 25 | 192 | 3 | 107.6 | RB44 |
| Damien Harris | 137 | 691 | 5.0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 91.3 | RB53 |
| Sony Michel | 79 | 449 | 5.7 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 114 | 1 | 75.3 | RB62 |
| JJ Taylor | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 12.4 | RB127 |
James White (ADP = 191.50, RB61)
Previously the epitome of a safe PPR running back, White effectively bottomed out in 2020. Never utilized much as a runner to begin with, White could only sequester 35 rushing attempts, his lowest total since 2015. More egregiously, White’s typically exemplary receiving usage took a massive hit, with his 62 targets representing a drop-off of 33 looks from the previous year and a whopping 61 from 2018. Quite simply, Newton didn’t check down to his ball carriers like Brady did, and in general the Patriots were a running team, content to grind the clock into dust.
In the end, White had but a trio of games with six or more receptions, and only three games with at least 50 receiving yards. Outside of an aberrant two-score game against the Cardinals, he just wasn’t winning weeks for his owners. Ultimately White compiled his way to a finish as a midrange PPR RB4, serving as a 2020 roster clogger.
With that said, there remains some suspense for 2021, when the soon-to-be 29-year-old could either be wearing a different jersey, or have a different New England signal caller should he re-sign with the Pats. His skill-set and relatively limited miles should lend themselves to a few more years in the league, and for the price point I’d be willing to buy on the hopes of a better 2021.
Rex Burkhead (ADP = NR)
Despite appearing in only ten games, an argument can be made that Burkhead was the best all-around New England ball carrier in 2020. While you never quite felt comfortable with him in your starting lineup, Burkhead quietly had five games of at least ten touches, and showed a nose for the end zone with six total scores on 100 opportunities (carries plus targets). Regretfully his season was cut short due to a serious knee injury versus the Texans, capping an efficient (albeit truncated) season.
On the wrong side of 30 and sans contract, it would not be surprising for Burkhead to exist as a free agent until he can prove his health. If/when he signs, he is likely best left on waivers, but should be a name on your 2021 watch list in deeper league settings.
Damien Harris (ADP = 104.00, RB32)
Shelved for the entirety of September and for the end of December, and consistently vultured in between by a rushing dynamo in Newton, it’s hard to view Harris’ season as anything other than “what could have been?” To the latter point, Harris received plenty of run between the 20s, and accrued double-digit rushes in all but one game. However, only two of his 137 carries found pay dirt, despite showing efficiency with 5.0 YPC.
With regard to injury, Harris’ 2020 maladies do not portend as a long-term concern. Unfortunately they robbed him of the ability to establish an early-season presence, as well as a late-season punctuation mark. Instead it was teammate Sony Michel (more on him below) who was able to close out the season as the team’s leading man.
Perhaps the biggest issue was Harris’ complete and utter lack of utility in the passing game. As the recipient of 52 collegiate receptions this came as somewhat of a surprise, though a 2021 squad potentially losing both White and Burkhead could yield more opportunities here. It’s not something I’m willing to bank on, but would certainly view as a pleasant surprise.
Given the above, along with the bumper crop of 2021 draft-eligible running backs, Harris’ status as the dynasty RB32 gives me pause. In a vacuum it’s not inherently unreasonable, but the onus will be on the young man to simply find more PPR points. I’d view him as a hold to a potential sell, and likely wouldn’t be seeking to buy at the current price point.
Sony Michel (ADP = 147.83, RB47)
As alluded to above, it was (perhaps surprisingly) Michel who functioned as the team’s most efficient runner. Per advanced metrics he had a comparable tackle evasion percentage as Harris, while eclipsing him in both percentage of breakaway runs and first down rate. This is not to say he was a better runner than was Harris in 2020, but perhaps dirt was being shoveled onto his fantasy grave a bit too early.
At this point through his career Michel hasn’t been the most dynamic runner, but two of three seasons have resulted in an average of at least 4.5 YPC. He also closed out the season strong, with three straight efforts of double-digit carries and at least 4.8 YPC (with a bonus receiving score thrown in). I don’t view it as a foregone conclusion that Harris reclaims the starting role in 2021, and we could even be looking at a maddening 1a/1b type of scenario.
Of note, Michel’s health (a potential degenerative knee condition) remains a worry. For his price point, however, I’d rather roll the dice here than on Harris.
JJ Taylor (ADP = NR)
Undersized and without any draft capital to speak of, it will be a tough road forward for Taylor to gain any sort of fantasy viability. He’s best left on waivers for now, but his 62 collegiate receptions are notable given the potential third-down RB vacuum for the Patriots in 2021.
Wide Receivers
| Name | Targets | Rec. | Yards | TD | YPR | PPR Points | Rank |
| Jakobi Meyers | 81 | 59 | 729 | 0 | 12.4 | 132.8 | WR58 |
| Damiere Byrd | 77 | 47 | 604 | 1 | 12.9 | 114.9 | WR67 |
| N’Keal Harry | 57 | 33 | 309 | 2 | 9.4 | 75.9 | WR98 |
| Julian Edelman | 39 | 21 | 315 | 0 | 15.0 | 54.7 | WR114 |
Jakobi Meyers (ADP = 170.17, WR76)
With a stalwart like Julian Edelman and a former first round draft pick in N’Keal Harry, it was more than just a little surprising that Meyers (easily) finished the year as the Patriots’ top receiver. Indeed, despite not really contributing until the last week in October, Meyers led the receiving corps in targets, receptions, yards and fantasy points. He even functioned as the team’s top quarterback, going two for two for 43 yards, two scores and a perfect 158.3 rating!
On a team that simply didn’t pass the ball, it was notable that Meyers accrued at least six targets in nine of 12 games, with an equivalent nine games of at least four receptions. Seven more games yielded at least 50 receiving yards, including two times eclipsing the century mark. In total, Meyers efficiently functioned as a solid possession receiver, never truly tanking your lineup despite not accumulating a single receiving score (not inherently his fault as Patriots receivers only collected four total scores on the year, though at some point it would be nice to see the young man cross the goal line), with seven games above 10.0 PPR points.
For a team utterly devoid of talent at the pass-catching positions, I view Meyers as a screaming buy at a positional ADP of WR76. It is possible (even probable) the Pats add talent via the draft and/or free agency, but Harry has been a bust to date (more on that below) and Edelman will be 35 years old in May and only has one year left on his contract. Even with a potential influx of talent, it’s hard not to see Meyers securing a top-two or top-three slot in the receiving hierarchy. Having just turned 24, this smoke may yet signal fire.
Damiere Byrd (ADP = NR)
Though it might seem disingenuous given the blurb on Meyers above, I wouldn’t be chasing points when it comes to Byrd. It’s true he filled in admirably when called upon, but there are a few caveats worth discussing. First, despite this being his fifth season in the league, it was his first with more than 50 targets. Second, he previously spent three years in Carolina with Newton, and while he never flourished on Sundays in Charlotte, it’s fair to reason Newton had a trust with Byrd he didn’t yet have with the other Patriots’ pass catchers. Lastly, while he has track speed, Byrd is older (soon to be 28) and smaller (5’9”, 180 pounds) than Meyers, and clearly took longer to break out.
Even if he returns to New England (he’s a free agent for 2021), I view it as fairly likely that increased competition would relegate him to the bench. I’d only be stashing in incredibly deep leagues.
N’Keal Harry (ADP = 169.83, WR75)
Through two years Harry has appeared in eight fewer games than Meyers, with 40 fewer receptions and 674 fewer yards. He has only managed to catch 55.6% of his targets despite averaging an abysmal 9.2 YPR, and has only eclipsed 50 receiving yards one time.
As a first-round pick, that isn’t how it was supposed to go.
While it may be too early to reach a definitive verdict here, especially since Harry only just turned 23 in December, we’ve seen this story play out before. Harry’s biggest strength (making contested catches) is not one that tends to translate gracefully to the NFL, where players across the board are bigger and stronger than what he saw in college. He hasn’t been able to utilize above-average size, strength and explosion to mitigate deficiencies in long speed and agility, effectively functioning as a catch-and-fall tight end.
Draft capital tends to go a long way with dynasty owners, which likely helps explain why he’s selected just ahead of the formerly undrafted Meyers. And while I understand I’m beginning to sound like Meyers’ biggest cheerleader, that’s a swap I’d make ten times out of ten.
Julian Edelman (ADP = 236.00, WR107)
Notably, through six games Edelman was on pace for 56 receptions and 840 yards, which would stand as a four-year low for him but likely would have led the 2020 team. While these “counting stats” were nice, the bulk of his output came from a shootout loss to Seattle, where he turned 11 targets into an explosive 8-179-0 line – only one other game yielded 50 yards, despite accumulating at least six targets in each (excluding his final game versus the 49ers where he was injured). Perhaps more importantly, and perhaps by design with a Newton-led offense, Edelman didn’t function as a full-time player, playing just above 68% of the offensive snaps.
The Patriots are the only NFL team Edelman has ever known, and while Belichick isn’t one for sentimentality, it’s hard to imagine an off-season release that would save only about $3 million. More likely, Edelman returns healthy and but struggles to maintain that health for a full season, playing well when able. This gives him some intrigue for teams looking to bolster their flex ranks, but little past that. Treat him like you’ve been treating Larry Fitzgerald for the past few years.
Tight Ends
| Name | Targets | Rec. | Yards | TD | YPR | PPR Points | Rank |
| Ryan Izzo | 20 | 13 | 199 | 0 | 15.3 | 32.9 | TE61 |
| Devin Asiasi | 7 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 19.5 | 11.9 | TE82 |
| Dalton Keene | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | TE100 |
Ryan Izzo (ADP = NR)
Before I get into Izzo, I’d like to note that the entirety of the Patriots tight end corps accounted for 49.2 PPR points in 2020. In his historic fantasy championship performance, Saints running back Alvin Kamara accumulated 56.2 PPR points in a single game, on his own. Apples to oranges and all that, but this statistic should help to highlight exactly how vomit-inducing the tight end position was for New England all year.
A former seventh-round pick, Izzo was next in the line of nameless, faceless men trying to replace All-Everything tight end Rob Gronkowski. In short, he didn’t.
Tight end is a notorious slow burn of a position, but through three seasons Izzo has only 19 receptions for 313 yards and a solitary score. While the concept of a “sure thing” doesn’t truly exist, I’d take any odds Izzo never becomes fantasy relevant.
Devin Asiasi (ADP = 230.67, TE33) and Dalton Keene (ADP = NR)
I recognize this is quite possibly the laziest analysis I’ve ever put forward during my years at DLF, but when it comes to the 2020 rookies Asiasi and Keene, just copy/paste your viewpoints from a year ago and apply them again for 2021.
The two only combined for a mere 12 targets across 15 total games, with Asiasi managing a score in week 17 versus the Jets. Past that, we’re left solely with collegiate performance and Combine results. To wit, Keene is slightly taller, faster, stronger, and more explosive, while Asiasi is slightly heavier and has decidedly longer arms. Keene had an aggregate 59-748-8 line at Virginia Tech, while Asiasi compiled a line of 52-789-6 at UCLA. Keene was picked #101 in the 2020 NFL Draft, and Asiasi 10 spots ahead at #91. Keene has a significantly stronger mustache game, but Asiasi is much better-coiffed. Helpful, right?
I would note there appears to have been an attempt to shoehorn Asiasi into the “move” role and Keene into the “blocking” role, despite their metrics being essentially identical. This is likely why Asiasi is selected in the back-end of mock drafts while Keene is nowhere to be found. So while I don’t know if either will ultimately pan out, I suppose I’ll take the cheaper option in Keene, but both are worth end-of-bench stashes in larger league settings given New England’s history at the position.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Eleven seasons. Prior to a frustrating 2020 season, that was the streak for the New England Patriots not only making the playoffs, but winning the AFC East. In hindsight this level of dominance in a league full of parity should go down in history as equivalent to the feats of all-time sports greats like Tiger Woods, Serena Williams, Muhammad Ali and Michael Jordan. A bust in Canton awaits head coach Bill Belichick, but after a 7-9 season, there’s work to be done now.
The first Tom Brady-less season had its ups (wins over Baltimore, Miami and Oakland), downs (blowout losses to Buffalo, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams), and intrigue (a thriller with Seattle and a deceptively close contest with Kansas City), but will ultimately go down as a failure. Deficient on offense due to injury and overall talent, and defense due to COVID-19 opt-outs, expectations were understandably tempered, but this is a fanbase that anticipates success no matter what, not a total absence of top-40 PPR running backs, top-50 receivers, and top-60 tight ends. Let’s dive in to figure out exactly what went wrong.
Quarterbacks
| Name | Comp. | Att. | Comp. % | Yards | YPA | TD | INT | Fantasy Points | Rank |
| Cam Newton* | 242 | 368 | 65.8 | 2657 | 7.2 | 8 | 10 | 296.1 | QB20 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 22 | 44 | 50.0 | 256 | 5.8 | 2 | 3 | 21.5 | QB54 |
| Brian Hoyer | 15 | 24 | 62.5 | 130 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 | 7.3 | QB67 |
*137 rushes for 592 yards (4.3 YPC) and 12 touchdowns
Cam Newton (ADP = 235.50, QB34)
Brought into Foxboro in July as a last-minute pre-camp signing on the cheap (one-year, $1.75 million), Newton injected a sense of optimism lacking under the prospective Jarrett Stidham-led offense. It was believed he was over the shoulder and foot injuries that cost him time in 2018 and 2019 and appeared to hamper his abilities to both throw and run. Pundits everywhere once again lauded Belichick for his ability to seemingly fill a major gap, and do so in a thrifty manner.
Things started out well. Newton ran roughshod over the Dolphins in week one (two rushing scores) and immolated the Seahawks in a last-second loss in week two (nearly 450 total yards and three scores). A win over the Raiders mitigated modest week three stats, which is where the trouble began. Newton contracted COVID-19, missed a week four contest versus the Chiefs, and returned to post pedestrian statistics in losses to the Broncos, 49ers and Bills. Wins over the Jets and Ravens and a big statistical day over the Texans offered some hope, but following that Newton would only eclipse 200 passing yards twice over the final six weeks of the season.
Newton will likely go down as the greatest running quarterback of all time, and is a threat for double-digit rushing scores each and every season. His rushing stats alone would’ve seen him finish as the 2020 PPR RB36 (and non-PPR RB25), after all. But 177 weekly passing yards and an abysmal 0.53 weekly passing touchdowns just won’t get it done in today’s NFL. Newton ultimately finished as a low-end QB2, appearing to be far from healthy and lacking the ability to drive the football by the end of the year, and not surprisingly the New England beat doesn’t anticipate a 2021 return to the team. Rightfully, he is off the dynasty radar, and until (if?) he proves his health he’s best kept at the end of superflex benches only.
Jarrett Stidham (ADP = NR)
Talk is cheap and actions speak louder than words. A preponderance of off-season puffery was overshadowed by the signing of Newton, effectively relegating Stidham to holding the clipboard. In perhaps the gravest insult of his young career, when Newton was placed on the COVID-19 list it was actually veteran Brian Hoyer who got the start versus Kansas City, though Stidham did eventually see playing time (tossing two interceptions). All told, Stidham saw mop-up action in five games, never eclipsing 13 passing attempts or 64 passing yards, finishing with more interceptions than scores.
It’s my personal belief Stidham received the mythical “Belichick Bump,” with the thinking he and Josh McDaniels could mold the Auburn product into a functional starting quarterback. This belies his fourth-round draft status, showing once again that the vast majority of late-round quarterbacks indeed do not become Brady. Despite only finishing his second season, Stidham’s NFL career is already on life support, and his dynasty value is non-existent.
Brian Hoyer (ADP = NR)
Hoyer the Destroyer had his requisite yearly cup of coffee in the league, face-planting versus the Chiefs before being summarily demoted back to the team’s QB3. He’s been a fun story as a less-talented, hairless Ryan Fitzpatrick, but there’s no dynasty relevance here.
Running Backs
| Name | Att | Yards | YPC | TD | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR Points | Rank |
| James White | 35 | 121 | 3.5 | 2 | 62 | 49 | 375 | 1 | 116.6 | RB42 |
| Rex Burkhead | 67 | 274 | 4.1 | 3 | 33 | 25 | 192 | 3 | 107.6 | RB44 |
| Damien Harris | 137 | 691 | 5.0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 91.3 | RB53 |
| Sony Michel | 79 | 449 | 5.7 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 114 | 1 | 75.3 | RB62 |
| JJ Taylor | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 12.4 | RB127 |
James White (ADP = 191.50, RB61)
Previously the epitome of a safe PPR running back, White effectively bottomed out in 2020. Never utilized much as a runner to begin with, White could only sequester 35 rushing attempts, his lowest total since 2015. More egregiously, White’s typically exemplary receiving usage took a massive hit, with his 62 targets representing a drop-off of 33 looks from the previous year and a whopping 61 from 2018. Quite simply, Newton didn’t check down to his ball carriers like Brady did, and in general the Patriots were a running team, content to grind the clock into dust.
In the end, White had but a trio of games with six or more receptions, and only three games with at least 50 receiving yards. Outside of an aberrant two-score game against the Cardinals, he just wasn’t winning weeks for his owners. Ultimately White compiled his way to a finish as a midrange PPR RB4, serving as a 2020 roster clogger.
With that said, there remains some suspense for 2021, when the soon-to-be 29-year-old could either be wearing a different jersey, or have a different New England signal caller should he re-sign with the Pats. His skill-set and relatively limited miles should lend themselves to a few more years in the league, and for the price point I’d be willing to buy on the hopes of a better 2021.
Rex Burkhead (ADP = NR)
Despite appearing in only ten games, an argument can be made that Burkhead was the best all-around New England ball carrier in 2020. While you never quite felt comfortable with him in your starting lineup, Burkhead quietly had five games of at least ten touches, and showed a nose for the end zone with six total scores on 100 opportunities (carries plus targets). Regretfully his season was cut short due to a serious knee injury versus the Texans, capping an efficient (albeit truncated) season.
On the wrong side of 30 and sans contract, it would not be surprising for Burkhead to exist as a free agent until he can prove his health. If/when he signs, he is likely best left on waivers, but should be a name on your 2021 watch list in deeper league settings.
Damien Harris (ADP = 104.00, RB32)
Shelved for the entirety of September and for the end of December, and consistently vultured in between by a rushing dynamo in Newton, it’s hard to view Harris’ season as anything other than “what could have been?” To the latter point, Harris received plenty of run between the 20s, and accrued double-digit rushes in all but one game. However, only two of his 137 carries found pay dirt, despite showing efficiency with 5.0 YPC.
With regard to injury, Harris’ 2020 maladies do not portend as a long-term concern. Unfortunately they robbed him of the ability to establish an early-season presence, as well as a late-season punctuation mark. Instead it was teammate Sony Michel (more on him below) who was able to close out the season as the team’s leading man.
Perhaps the biggest issue was Harris’ complete and utter lack of utility in the passing game. As the recipient of 52 collegiate receptions this came as somewhat of a surprise, though a 2021 squad potentially losing both White and Burkhead could yield more opportunities here. It’s not something I’m willing to bank on, but would certainly view as a pleasant surprise.
Given the above, along with the bumper crop of 2021 draft-eligible running backs, Harris’ status as the dynasty RB32 gives me pause. In a vacuum it’s not inherently unreasonable, but the onus will be on the young man to simply find more PPR points. I’d view him as a hold to a potential sell, and likely wouldn’t be seeking to buy at the current price point.
Sony Michel (ADP = 147.83, RB47)
As alluded to above, it was (perhaps surprisingly) Michel who functioned as the team’s most efficient runner. Per advanced metrics he had a comparable tackle evasion percentage as Harris, while eclipsing him in both percentage of breakaway runs and first down rate. This is not to say he was a better runner than was Harris in 2020, but perhaps dirt was being shoveled onto his fantasy grave a bit too early.
At this point through his career Michel hasn’t been the most dynamic runner, but two of three seasons have resulted in an average of at least 4.5 YPC. He also closed out the season strong, with three straight efforts of double-digit carries and at least 4.8 YPC (with a bonus receiving score thrown in). I don’t view it as a foregone conclusion that Harris reclaims the starting role in 2021, and we could even be looking at a maddening 1a/1b type of scenario.
Of note, Michel’s health (a potential degenerative knee condition) remains a worry. For his price point, however, I’d rather roll the dice here than on Harris.
JJ Taylor (ADP = NR)
Undersized and without any draft capital to speak of, it will be a tough road forward for Taylor to gain any sort of fantasy viability. He’s best left on waivers for now, but his 62 collegiate receptions are notable given the potential third-down RB vacuum for the Patriots in 2021.
Wide Receivers
| Name | Targets | Rec. | Yards | TD | YPR | PPR Points | Rank |
| Jakobi Meyers | 81 | 59 | 729 | 0 | 12.4 | 132.8 | WR58 |
| Damiere Byrd | 77 | 47 | 604 | 1 | 12.9 | 114.9 | WR67 |
| N’Keal Harry | 57 | 33 | 309 | 2 | 9.4 | 75.9 | WR98 |
| Julian Edelman | 39 | 21 | 315 | 0 | 15.0 | 54.7 | WR114 |
Jakobi Meyers (ADP = 170.17, WR76)
With a stalwart like Julian Edelman and a former first round draft pick in N’Keal Harry, it was more than just a little surprising that Meyers (easily) finished the year as the Patriots’ top receiver. Indeed, despite not really contributing until the last week in October, Meyers led the receiving corps in targets, receptions, yards and fantasy points. He even functioned as the team’s top quarterback, going two for two for 43 yards, two scores and a perfect 158.3 rating!
On a team that simply didn’t pass the ball, it was notable that Meyers accrued at least six targets in nine of 12 games, with an equivalent nine games of at least four receptions. Seven more games yielded at least 50 receiving yards, including two times eclipsing the century mark. In total, Meyers efficiently functioned as a solid possession receiver, never truly tanking your lineup despite not accumulating a single receiving score (not inherently his fault as Patriots receivers only collected four total scores on the year, though at some point it would be nice to see the young man cross the goal line), with seven games above 10.0 PPR points.
For a team utterly devoid of talent at the pass-catching positions, I view Meyers as a screaming buy at a positional ADP of WR76. It is possible (even probable) the Pats add talent via the draft and/or free agency, but Harry has been a bust to date (more on that below) and Edelman will be 35 years old in May and only has one year left on his contract. Even with a potential influx of talent, it’s hard not to see Meyers securing a top-two or top-three slot in the receiving hierarchy. Having just turned 24, this smoke may yet signal fire.
Damiere Byrd (ADP = NR)
Though it might seem disingenuous given the blurb on Meyers above, I wouldn’t be chasing points when it comes to Byrd. It’s true he filled in admirably when called upon, but there are a few caveats worth discussing. First, despite this being his fifth season in the league, it was his first with more than 50 targets. Second, he previously spent three years in Carolina with Newton, and while he never flourished on Sundays in Charlotte, it’s fair to reason Newton had a trust with Byrd he didn’t yet have with the other Patriots’ pass catchers. Lastly, while he has track speed, Byrd is older (soon to be 28) and smaller (5’9”, 180 pounds) than Meyers, and clearly took longer to break out.
Even if he returns to New England (he’s a free agent for 2021), I view it as fairly likely that increased competition would relegate him to the bench. I’d only be stashing in incredibly deep leagues.
N’Keal Harry (ADP = 169.83, WR75)
Through two years Harry has appeared in eight fewer games than Meyers, with 40 fewer receptions and 674 fewer yards. He has only managed to catch 55.6% of his targets despite averaging an abysmal 9.2 YPR, and has only eclipsed 50 receiving yards one time.
As a first-round pick, that isn’t how it was supposed to go.
While it may be too early to reach a definitive verdict here, especially since Harry only just turned 23 in December, we’ve seen this story play out before. Harry’s biggest strength (making contested catches) is not one that tends to translate gracefully to the NFL, where players across the board are bigger and stronger than what he saw in college. He hasn’t been able to utilize above-average size, strength and explosion to mitigate deficiencies in long speed and agility, effectively functioning as a catch-and-fall tight end.
Draft capital tends to go a long way with dynasty owners, which likely helps explain why he’s selected just ahead of the formerly undrafted Meyers. And while I understand I’m beginning to sound like Meyers’ biggest cheerleader, that’s a swap I’d make ten times out of ten.
Julian Edelman (ADP = 236.00, WR107)
Notably, through six games Edelman was on pace for 56 receptions and 840 yards, which would stand as a four-year low for him but likely would have led the 2020 team. While these “counting stats” were nice, the bulk of his output came from a shootout loss to Seattle, where he turned 11 targets into an explosive 8-179-0 line – only one other game yielded 50 yards, despite accumulating at least six targets in each (excluding his final game versus the 49ers where he was injured). Perhaps more importantly, and perhaps by design with a Newton-led offense, Edelman didn’t function as a full-time player, playing just above 68% of the offensive snaps.
The Patriots are the only NFL team Edelman has ever known, and while Belichick isn’t one for sentimentality, it’s hard to imagine an off-season release that would save only about $3 million. More likely, Edelman returns healthy and but struggles to maintain that health for a full season, playing well when able. This gives him some intrigue for teams looking to bolster their flex ranks, but little past that. Treat him like you’ve been treating Larry Fitzgerald for the past few years.
Tight Ends
| Name | Targets | Rec. | Yards | TD | YPR | PPR Points | Rank |
| Ryan Izzo | 20 | 13 | 199 | 0 | 15.3 | 32.9 | TE61 |
| Devin Asiasi | 7 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 19.5 | 11.9 | TE82 |
| Dalton Keene | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | TE100 |
Ryan Izzo (ADP = NR)
Before I get into Izzo, I’d like to note that the entirety of the Patriots tight end corps accounted for 49.2 PPR points in 2020. In his historic fantasy championship performance, Saints running back Alvin Kamara accumulated 56.2 PPR points in a single game, on his own. Apples to oranges and all that, but this statistic should help to highlight exactly how vomit-inducing the tight end position was for New England all year.
A former seventh-round pick, Izzo was next in the line of nameless, faceless men trying to replace All-Everything tight end Rob Gronkowski. In short, he didn’t.
Tight end is a notorious slow burn of a position, but through three seasons Izzo has only 19 receptions for 313 yards and a solitary score. While the concept of a “sure thing” doesn’t truly exist, I’d take any odds Izzo never becomes fantasy relevant.
Devin Asiasi (ADP = 230.67, TE33) and Dalton Keene (ADP = NR)
I recognize this is quite possibly the laziest analysis I’ve ever put forward during my years at DLF, but when it comes to the 2020 rookies Asiasi and Keene, just copy/paste your viewpoints from a year ago and apply them again for 2021.
The two only combined for a mere 12 targets across 15 total games, with Asiasi managing a score in week 17 versus the Jets. Past that, we’re left solely with collegiate performance and Combine results. To wit, Keene is slightly taller, faster, stronger, and more explosive, while Asiasi is slightly heavier and has decidedly longer arms. Keene had an aggregate 59-748-8 line at Virginia Tech, while Asiasi compiled a line of 52-789-6 at UCLA. Keene was picked #101 in the 2020 NFL Draft, and Asiasi 10 spots ahead at #91. Keene has a significantly stronger mustache game, but Asiasi is much better-coiffed. Helpful, right?
I would note there appears to have been an attempt to shoehorn Asiasi into the “move” role and Keene into the “blocking” role, despite their metrics being essentially identical. This is likely why Asiasi is selected in the back-end of mock drafts while Keene is nowhere to be found. So while I don’t know if either will ultimately pan out, I suppose I’ll take the cheaper option in Keene, but both are worth end-of-bench stashes in larger league settings given New England’s history at the position.
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