2019 Summer Sleeper: Cincinnati Bengals

Eric Hardter Posted On July 11, 2019

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

In terms of NFL Draft capital alone, the Cincinnati Bengals should be one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. To that point, between quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends, Cincy has a whopping eight players in their three-deep who were selected in either first or second round. Unfortunately, whether due to injury or ineffectiveness, this collection of talent simply hasn’t been able to put it together over the last few years, ranking 26th (2018), 32nd (2017), 13th (2016) and 15th (2015) in the league in total yardage (though it should be noted not each of these eight players were present for all seasons).

The 2019 squad features a number of “make or break” candidates, and for varying reasons. Andy Dalton got to breathe a sigh of relief when the team didn’t select a signal-caller until the fourth round (Ryan Finley), but could find himself on the outs in 2020 if he doesn’t improve. AJ Green and Tyler Eifert could be among the best in the league at their respective positions, but haven’t been able to stay healthy. John Ross scored the ball at a decent clip as a sophomore, but was horrifyingly inefficient past that (36.2% catch rate). Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon had excellent 2018 campaigns, and while not in critical scenarios as those listed above, the onus is on them to continue their upward trajectories.

On the other hand, one of these former early draft picks is facing a relatively stress-free environment due to diminished expectations. But does that mean he can’t produce a return on his current value? Let’s dive in.

Giovani Bernard, RB

Category: Sleeper

Yes, I’m qualifying the man who, while perhaps not in a consensus, was viewed by many as the 2013 rookie 1.01 as a 2019 sleeper. But I am nothing if not a slave to the infrastructure, and with a current ADP of 199.3, Bernard fits the bill appropriately, name recognition be damned.

Looking into the numbers, it’s not wholly unsurprising. The North Carolina product started his career soundly with three straight seasons of over 1,000 total yards, with nearly 150 combined receptions over that time. However, during that period he was never entrusted with the lion’s share of carries, and to date has yet to eclipse 170 in a single season.

There was some brief hope in 2017, given Mixon’s rookie struggles and Bernard himself bouncing back from a subpar and injury-riddled 2016 campaign. But #JoeMixonIsBad Twitter was decidedly silenced last season, with the rising sophomore finishing fourth in the league in rushing despite missing two games, while boosting his per-carry average by a whopping 1.4 yards. Bernard was relegated to a meager 56 totes, easily the lowest of his career, and missed four games himself to boot.

But much like Liam Neeson when a member of his family is taken, Bernard continues to offer a very particular set of skills. While galivanting and promoting violence across Europe isn’t one of them (actually, I don’t know the guy and his hobbies but I’ll consider this a safe assumption), Bernard remains one of the league’s better pass-catching running backs. Over his six-year career, he’s corralled 265 of 355 targets (74.6%) for 2,278 yards (8.6 YPR), thereby averaging 3.2 receptions for 27.4 yards every week. Even without rushing production and adding in the odd touchdown here and there, it’s a floor that won’t capsize your starting lineup if you’re looking for a desperation FLEX play.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Per reporter Paul Dehner, new head coach Zac Taylor has been experimenting with sets incorporating both Mixon and Bernard. Dehner believes Bernard could actually see upwards of 11-13 touches per game. He’s also apparently been lined up all over the formation in off-season activities, a welcome refrain from the stale Marvin Lewis methodology.

Even if the above winds up being overblown, there’s enough reason to believe an innovative offensive mind would want to use Bernard creatively. Outside of Mixon, Green, Boyd, and Eifert-When-He’s-Healthy, this is an offense sorely lacking playmakers. With the jury out on Ross and the depth receivers essentially resembling an antagonist’s backup posse in a bad 80’s movie, Bernard may be best suited for additional work. With his ability to catch passes and function as an occasional, ya know, backup running back, it’s not so far-fetched to see him providing viability regardless of Mixon’s health (i.e. the leap we almost always have to make with sleepers).

Many are concerned with the arrivals of rookies Trayveon Williams and Rodney Anderson. While the former put up great numbers in college, he tested out as one of the most unathletic running backs at the NFL Combine, and was merely a sixth-round pick. Anderson is on similar unsure footing after missing nearly all of the 2018 college season with a torn ACL, and also falling to the sixth round of the draft. Perhaps they will wind up outplaying their respective draft statuses, but there were clear reasons both slid as far as they did.

The other concern is the impending conclusion of Bernard’s contract. This is certainly an issue for his long-term future as a Bengal, but I’d argue the team actually then has every incentive to ride him as hard as they can, especially if they aren’t planning on re-signing him. In such a scenario they won’t be concerned with his viability past the upcoming season, and if Bernard shows well and signs elsewhere come 2020, Cincy could be looking at a potential compensatory draft pick. This isn’t to say he’s going to bite into Mixon’s workload in any significant manner, but it stands to reason he could and should hold off the pair of rookies.

Given the totality of the above, I think Bernard, if nothing else, makes for an interesting prospective trade target. I believe he’ll see a decent chunk of the running back reps, and he offers a bankable floor in the passing game. He’s far removed from the heights of his ballyhooed rookie ADP, but that doesn’t mean he can’t offer some short-term production in a pinch.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.