Rookie Report Card: AJ Brown and Tony Pollard
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2019 potential, and long-term upside.
The series continues this week as we highlight AJ Brown and Tony Pollard.
AJ Brown, WR TEN
Week 15 Stats: eight receptions, 114 yards, one touchdown (13 targets)
To most, AJ Brown entered the 2019 NFL Draft as one of a handful of wide receivers who should be considered the top dynasty receiver prospect available. Other names like N’Keal Harry, DK Metcalf, and Marquise Brown were certainly worthy of being in the conversation but to a few of us, Brown was the clear alpha in a highly-regarded class.
Watching Brown play at Mississippi, he looked physical and overpowering. He was a man amongst boys even in the highly-regarded SEC, regularly overpowering smaller defensive backs both at the line of scrimmage and at the catch point. Elite as both a short-to-intermediate possession receiver as well as in the vertical game, he showed toughness across the middle on contested catches along with elite ball tracking when making over the shoulder catches down the field. Displaying excellent route running – particularly at the top of his route when changing directions – and incredible hands, he profiled as a WR1 in the NFL and appeared to have the potential to become one of the top fantasy wideouts if put in a position to succeed.
When Brown was selected by the Titans in the middle of the second round as the fourth wide receiver off the board, many dynasty owners saw the landing spot as a negative. After all, playing with Marcus Mariota in a run-first offense was hardly an ideal scenario and Corey Davis had failed to make his mark in Tennessee despite being billed as a WR1 a few years earlier.
It’s starting to become clear that comparing Brown to Davis was a big mistake, however.
Brown has been nothing short of spectacular as a rookie. Already with 47 receptions for 893 yards and seven touchdowns, he’s on pace to become one of the most productive rookie receivers in recent history and he appears to be getting stronger as his first season progresses. In just the last four weeks, he’s piled up 23 receptions for 447 yards and four touchdowns which makes him the WR1 overall in fantasy over that stretch.
On Sunday, Brown was in top form against the Texans. He showed his deep speed early on a 60-yard bomb from Ryan Tannehill (who all Brown owners should hope gets the extension in Tennessee that has been rumored recently), displayed his excellent route running on back-to-back out routes that went for 11 yards each late in the second quarter, and showed his incredible hands on a slant thrown well behind him in the third quarter. His five-yard touchdown catch early in the fourth was also impressive as he caught the ball coming back to the line of scrimmage and took a hit while staying in the end zone.
At this point, you’ll be hard-pressed to find somebody putting together dynasty rankings with another 2019 rookie receiver higher than Brown, for good reason. Already seen by most as a top-20 player at the position, he’s a lock to be considered a dynasty WR1 before the Super Bowl so if you don’t have him already, you should be making your offers sooner rather than later as the price (currently a first-rounder plus at least a second-rounder) will continue to spike as the hype builds this off-season.
I’m willing to spend two firsts on Brown’s elite WR1 upside (especially if they are both outside the top-five picks) but it will likely cost more to get him.
Tony Pollard, RB DAL
Week 15 Stats: 12 carries, 131 yards, one touchdown, two receptions,12 receiving yards (two targets)
The story of Tony Pollard’s dynasty value during the off-season is a unique one.
Overlooked by most coming out of Memphis, he had a reputation as a playmaker but was pigeonholed as returner by most because of his knack for making big plays on special teams (seven return touchdowns) during his three-year college career. Despite being known as a specialist by many, however, those who took the time to watch Pollard with the Tigers’ offense saw a player who had the potential to make a contribution as an NFL tailback.
Pollard was a part-time player in college, handling 139 carries for 941 yards (6.8 YPC) while catching 104 passes for 1,292 yards (12.4 YPR) while scoring 18 times but has good size (6’-0”, 210 pounds) and enough speed (4.52 40-yard dash) to qualify as an NFL running back prospect. The biggest asset he showed in college was that much like Tarik Cohen, he possesses the quickness and twitch that so many teams value. That along with his history as a pass-catcher made it a surprise to many that he was such an afterthought during draft season for dynasty owners.
That all changed in the months following Pollard being selected in the fourth round by the Cowboys.
Because of Ezekiel Elliot’s holdout (as well as the glowing reports out of Dallas and Pollard’s strong showing in training camp and the preseason), he shot up rookie draft boards. Originally a fourth-round rookie pick in most rookie drafts, he started going as high as the second round in August.
The hype died rapidly once Zeke returned just before the regular season however and the bottom fell out of his dynasty value when despite getting 13 carries in week one, Pollard ran for just 24 yards. The DLF trade tool showed multiple trades where the rookie went for a future third or fourth-round picks or as a throw-in on trades.
Since that point, Pollard has logged a pair of 100-yard games (including in week 15 when he carried 12 times for 131 yards and a score) but has been mostly irrelevant to fantasy owners with Elliott garnering most of the work in the backfield. Nevertheless, there have been reasons for owners to be encouraged about his upside if ever given an opportunity.
On Sunday against the Rams, Pollard looked explosive. He hit running lanes with little hesitation and finished runs with more authority than he has for a majority of his rookie season to this point. Although the Los Angeles defense showed little resistance throughout the game, it was a positive sign for the rookie when he picked up right where Elliott left off when his day ended.
Despite the quality performance, however, those who have watched Pollard throughout the season have seen an uneven running back. For every burst through the line there seems to be a handful of plays where he either runs into the back of his blocker or looks indecisive in the backfield before diving forward for a yard or two.
At this point, it’s still unclear if Pollard could be depended on by dynasty owners if ever given a backfield to himself. Although he’s shown flashes of playmaking potential, I tend to see a career backup with the upside to be a fantasy spot starter with RB2 upside if Elliott ever goes down for a week or two. If I could get a second-round rookie pick or a player of that value for him, I’d feel good about moving him.
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
