Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week 13
Welcome back to our target share article where we look for trends in player usage to find an edge in our start/sit decisions and potential value in dynasty. I’m sorry I missed you all last week but I took the Thanksgiving week off. I hope you all also had a nice holiday as well.
But the vacation is over and now it’s time to get back to the grind. The playoffs are here, and whether you’re in or not there is still football left and data pouring in that we can take advantage of for our dynasty rosters.
So, let’s dig in!
Running Back Risers
Below you’ll see the season-long stats of the biggest snap percentage climbers from the last three weeks at the running back position. These are must-add players in most situations because of the nature of the position and the value you can find or keep away from other league-mates.
Miles Sanders, RB PHI
If the team is committed to a committee, why does the committee go away when Jordan Howard is injured? The truth may well be that they like Howard and Sanders more than they like a committee. Even still as long as Howard is out Sanders should be considered a locked-in starter given his performance on increased usage. His snap share and target share put him in some rarified company last week and his fantasy performance rose to meet it.
Darwin Thompson, RB KC
Finally, one of the off-season running back darlings got some work. There has been very little “league winner” activity from the lower half of the board this year and Thompson’s usage didn’t change that. However, he performed well on increased volume and I’ll be interested to see what happens in the coming weeks. There is upside here.
Patrick Laird, RB MIA
His emergence was very much exaggerated in some circles. However, it’s undeniable that over the last few weeks the team has started to shift usage towards Patrick Laird. With Kalen Ballage going to IR, this trend is only likely to increase. It’d be tough to start him but I definitely think we should add him to see where this goes.
Raheem Mostert, RB SF
The San Francisco 49ers have no running back, and it’s not really a committee either as they will use one of their players enough almost every game. But I honestly don’t know how we could feel confident predicting which one it will be.
Rashaad Penny, RB SEA
Everything is calling for a Rashaad Penny breakout season… except for the coaching staff. Penny has been great on the work he has been given and sometimes Chris Carson is injured or fumbles. However, the team continues to go back to Carson almost straight away. Penny still lives in that top-36 flex range for now. I think his performance is positive form a dynasty perspective at least.
Kenyan Drake, RB MIA
Even with a, supposedly healthy Chase Edmonds and David Johnson in the backfield, the team is still more confident giving the biggest share to Kenyan Drake. Sometimes we just have to believe what they tell us, even if we know the other players are talented.
Brian Hill, RB ATL, Benny Snell, RB PIT
With Devonta Freeman and Jaylen Samuels (maybe James Conner) healthy for now, it’d be hard to predict these players to continue their usage trend. However, I think they should be close to the top of handcuffs to add since they have already proven to be the players the teams will lean on if and when they are needed.
Wide Receiver Risers
Below you’ll see a table of wide receivers who have not been averaging 20% or more of targets this season but who saw the biggest rise in target share over the last three weeks.
Alshon Jeffery, WR PHI
Alshon Jeffery came back with a bang in week 13 for a 35% target share and a 28.7 PPR point performance. The veteran has continued to struggle with injuries and production over the last few years but he is the alpha in the target share game for the Eagles when he’s available. Notably, the targets have consolidated easily around Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and Dallas Goedert over the last few weeks. Still, Jeffery remains one of the few aging players even I’d be more willing to trade than buy.
Anthony Miller, WR CHI
While Taylor Gabriel is away, Anthony Miller has been at play. For once. It’s taken multiple opportunities but over the last two weeks, Miller has really stepped into the WR2 role for the Bears. He fell to the waiver wire even in some dynasty leagues so it’s worth checking on. He’s always been a physical player with a lot of talent even in college but his downside players have equaled his upside ones in the past. I’m rooting for him to keep up this new positive trend.
James Washington and Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
With Johnson’s return, Washington falls to the second option. But Washington has also earned significant usage over the last few weeks and that held true in week 13 with a 26% target share. I’d be interested in adding either of them in dynasty, and I think Johnson may surprise by taking back his lead role on this team down the stretch. Either way I don’t want to forget or dismiss Washington’s performance over the last few weeks despite a lot of questions that have been thrown at him, he continues to produce well with his earned opportunity, just like he did in college.
Okay, folks, that’s about all I have time for today, I hope week 13 finds you in the playoffs, but if not, don’t stop working. We only get so many weeks to learn about these players before we start trying to maneuver for them in the no games part of the season. Dynasty has no off-season.
You can find all the data I’ve collected for this article from 2019 at this link here.
Good luck, and I’ll see you all next week.
Thanks again.
Peter Howard
@pahowdy
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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