Turmoil.
That’s really the only word to describe the state of rookie drafts at the moment. Dynasty owners and fantasy football enthusiasts all over the globe are clearly perplexed after we’ve seen a preseason and training camp full of unexpected performances from veterans combined with disappointing statistical outcomes or injuries from high priced rookies. While this is no time to panic (and I really can’t stress this enough), one thing is becoming very clear – there is more risk within this group of rookies than many had initially expected. Players like Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny have all seen their rookie draft stock become much more volatile based on injuries or a perceived poor start to their careers and they’re not alone.
Knowing what we do now and evaluating the rookies based on their performances thus far, there are also several youngsters who seem to have either outplayed their early rookie draft position or solidified themselves as a very safe selection in rookie drafts. While any of them could still bust and the sample size we have is extraordinarily small (again, I really can’t stress this enough), there are six players who stick out to me as the safest players to draft at the moment. If you’re a rebuilding team or someone who is risk averse, these may just be the players for you to target. Keep in mind this is my own personal list and not based on anything other than my own evaluations. With that being said, here are my six safest bets in rookie drafts at the moment.
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Ken Kelly
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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James Barton
August 26, 2018 at 5:30 pm
Was able to get Kirk at 1.14 Goedert at 2.14 in my 16 team league. As an Ertz owner, I hope I made the correct move. Thx
steven manies
August 26, 2018 at 7:11 pm
No Kerryon Johnson? He looks like the best rookie RB behind Barkley to many of us paying attention.
James Nall
August 26, 2018 at 8:32 pm
He’s not getting any real run in the preseason with the 1’s. Riddick and Blount might be a problem for early success.
Ken Kelly
August 27, 2018 at 8:16 am
I considered Johnson as he’s certainly done nothing wrong thus far and performed pretty well. However, I agree with James below. The trouble with Johnson is a super crowded backfield that makes it really hard for him to carve out an unimpeded path to early success. While that could (and should) happen in time, Riddick is a serious roadblock to him in PPR leagues and while I really do like him at his current draft slot and ADP, I simply consider the six here a little safer. He wouldn’t be far down the list, though. If this was a top ten, he’d make it for sure.
steven manies
August 27, 2018 at 12:24 pm
You have RB Royce Freeman on the list and he has the same problem that Kerryon Johnson has which is established veteran RB’s ahead of him on the roster. I don’t see much difference, although the Lion’s O-Line is most likely better than the Broncos. I guess time will tell.
Ryan Parish
September 1, 2018 at 4:35 pm
Johnson has two ahead of him, each with different roles, which will make it har for him to carve a niche early. Freeman only has Booker, and to call him “established” is a rather liberal use of the term.
Heath McCoppin
August 28, 2018 at 9:23 am
Ken, I have a unique draft question. I’m in a 8 team dynasty league and did some trading to acquire the 1st overall pick along with the 5th and 6th. S. Barkley is the obvious choice at no.1 but who do you like at 5 and 6 in the first round for me? My current RB’s are E. Elliott, D. Cook and A. Jones while my WR’s are OBJ, J. Jones, M. Williams, C. Davis and C. Godwin. I’m wanting to grab 3 RB’s and was curious what your thoughts were on stashing D. Guice if he’s still there? Lastly, I have Dak and Watson so would you drop Dak for a Mayfield, Rosen, Allen or Darnold if they are available? Thnaks