20/20: Rashaad Penny

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we will be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2018 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – Rashaad Penny

2.) College – San Diego State University

3.) Height/Weight – 5’10″, 220 lbs

4.) Birth date – 02/02/1996 (22 years old)

5.) Class – Senior

6.) Basic college stats –

2014: Two carries for 22 yards (11.0 YPC). Zero receptions.

2015: 61 carries for 368 yards (6.0 YPC) and four touchdowns. Eight receptions for 120 yards (15.0 YPR) and one touchdown.

2016: 136 carries for 1,018 yards (7.5 YPC) and 11 touchdowns. 15 receptions for 224 yards (14.9 YPR) and three touchdowns.

2017: 289 carries for 2,248 yards (7.8 YPC) and 23 touchdowns. 19 receptions for 135 yards (7.1 YPR) and two touchdowns.

7.) NFL Draft round projection – Penny will likely be selected on the second day of the draft.

8.) Current NFL comparison – Jay Ajayi/Jordan Howard.

Penny is a hard player to find a perfect comparison for. I view Penny as more similar to Howard than Ajayi, but Penny’s receiving ability trumps Howard’s by a significant margin and more closely resembles Ajayi’s. At the same time, Penny isn’t as violent a runner as Ajayi is. All three are 220-plus pounds and excel between the tackles. Penny is a little unique in that he offers added value in the return game.

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9.) Best possible destination – Detroit Lions.

The Lions have needed an influx of talent at the running back position for years now, failing to have a single rusher total 100 yards on the ground since Reggie Bush in 2013. Penny is a capable pass catcher but struggles in pass protection – so an early down role suits him best, and the Lions have one of the league’s best third-down backs on their roster in Theo Riddick.

10.) Worst possible destination – Other than the teams with established starters – Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle has cycled through ineffective or injured runners behind a makeshift offensive line since Marshawn Lynch’s “retirement”. Penny would excel on a team with a strong offensive line but would be worse than many others behind a bad line. He has terrific vision and has good agility, but isn’t what people would consider shifty and lacks elite top-end speed. His woes in pass protection (see below) would exacerbate the issue of a poor offensive line, and could potentially limit how much playing time he ends up seeing.

11.) Best current skill – Vision.

There’s a lot to like about Penny – his build, leg drive, initial burst, and ability to handle a significant workload all stand out – but as mentioned above, Penny’s vision is his calling card. Penny had a lot of long touchdown runs where he was untouched, but many of those runs relied on him making a cut in the backfield. San Diego State’s offensive line was inconsistent, opening large lanes for him to run through at times and forcing Penny to create for himself behind the line of scrimmage at other times, which he proved adept at.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Pass protection.

Penny doesn’t have many holes in his game, but he’s not a perfect prospect. There are certainly things he could stand to improve upon – he runs somewhat upright, doesn’t have elite bend, agility, or long speed, and doesn’t consistently play to his size – but his shortcomings in those areas are nitpicking more than identifying major flaws. However, his one weakness worth mentioning is a significant one: his pass protection is pretty brutal at this point. However, his issues in pass protection are almost all technique; his effort and size aren’t hindrances in this aspect. Therefore, it’s encouraging that one of his biggest knocks is coachable and fixable.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – Among our rookie rankers, Penny comes in at the ninth spot – as high as third overall and as low as 28th. His February rookie ADP is ninth as well – across ten different mocks, he was selected as high as fourth and as low as 16th.

14.) Projected dynasty value –  Penny is projected to be a first rounder in rookie drafts this summer – as mentioned above, his February rookie ADP was 9. His startup ADP is 76th overall, placing him in the seventh round. Because of his struggles in pass protection, I doubt he’ll be a three-down back upon entering the league, although I think he’s capable of developing into a workhorse who doesn’t leave the field. Until then, I don’t see RB1 upside but think he could settle into the RB2 range between the fourth and seventh round of startup drafts in the years to come. Ultimately, his landing spot will go a long way in deciding where he should be drafted.

15.) Return ability – Penny is tied for the NCAA record for career kick return touchdowns with seven. The players he’s tied with – C.J. Spiller and Tyron Carrier – are 20 pounds and 50 pounds lighter than Penny, respectively. Penny, who had never returned a punt before this season, took his first career punt return back for a 70-yard touchdown. College teams try to get the ball in the hands of their best playmakers as often as possible, and Penny fit this mold for the Aztecs. Return ability has proven to be moderately correlated with running back success at the next level.

16.) Career backup – Rashaad Penny wasn’t a household name until he entered the Heisman conversation this year. The senior finished fifth in Heisman voting in 2017 but spent the past few seasons backing up Eagles running back Donnel Pumphrey. Despite playing behind Pumphrey in 2016, Penny rushed for over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, setting the stage for his breakout senior campaign.

17.) Family bloodlines – Penny’s brother, Elijhaa Penny, is a running back on the Arizona Cardinals.

18.) Humility and maturity – For an accomplished collegiate running back, Penny is extremely mature and humble. He consistently deflects praise and thanks his teammates and coaches instead, saying he’s focused on winning and doing what he can to help his team. You hear a lot of these clichés recycled during many press conferences, but it’s refreshing to hear a young college athlete with as many accolades as Penny putting the team ahead of his personal accomplishments.

19.) Passing a legend – Penny broke a record set by Hall of Famer and former San Diego State running back Marshall Faulk in November of this year. Faulk held the school record for total yards in a game with 422 before Penny and the Aztecs took on Nevada in November. Penny took a kick and a punt back for touchdowns, rushed for 222 yards and two touchdowns, and added a short reception to bring his total to 429 – the ninth-highest total for a single game in FBS history. He became the second player ever to have a kick, punt, and rushing touchdown in a single game – and the first to accomplish the same feat by scoring two rushing touchdowns. Amazingly enough, Penny also had a 70-yard touchdown run called back due to holding.

20.) Production and highlights – Penny closed the season on an absolute tear. He rushed for over 200 yards in each of this season’s last five games and scored 15 total touchdowns in those contests. Averaging 22 carries a game over that span, he averaged 10.3 yards per carry over that 110-carry sample. For the season, Penny and Stanford RB Bryce Love were the only two running backs to surpass 2000 rushing yards, with Penny leading the entire NCAA by 130 yards.

Penny is a workhorse back that doesn’t wear down towards the end of games. To watch his highlights, check out the video below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98HqRF3INqY

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