The Dynasty Impact of Eli Manning’s Benching

The year was 2011. A bunch of college friends and I gathered around the TV to watch the Giants play the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I could feel my heart beat out of my chest on every play of the game. Considering I decided to invite some of my more obnoxious friends over, I really needed the Giants to win. I said aloud for everyone to hear, “If the Giants score a touchdown on this drive, I will name my first kid after the player who scores the touchdown”. For those not familiar, this was the play on which Ahmad Bradshaw fell into the end zone.

I decided to credit Eli Manning with the drive though. My first born was either going to be Eli or Ella and my future fiancée was just going to have to be ok with it. Flash forward to November 28th, 2017, and I’m stunned as I hear the words “Geno Smith will be starting week 13 for the New York Giants”. It feels like I’ve surely been transported to another universe where benching Eli in favor of Geno is a smart football move.

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Don’t get me wrong. I know it was about time to bench Eli. I even think the Giants were smart to use Ben McAdoo as a scapegoat for the blame since he will be gone next season. However, it would have been much more understandable if they announced Davis Webb was starting. I do hear now that Webb may be starting in week 14, but still, you’re really going to bench Eli for Geno?

Anyway, as you all can imagine, benching the man who has been your quarterback for 14 seasons has big ramifications for dynasty purposes. It’s hard to say exactly who the next quarterback will be (except it’s definitely not Geno), but I thought it was worth looking at how this impacts values on the Giants nonetheless. I at least have to try to make myself feel optimistic about the move.

Odell Beckham, WR NYG

It probably never crossed Odell Beckham’s mind that when he went down for the season he very likely had caught his last pass from Eli Manning. Catching passes from Manning may have been the only thing that Odell loved more than that kicking net. Since Odell entered the league in 2014, he and Eli have hooked up for 313 receptions, 4424 yards, and 38 touchdowns. Eli targeted Odell nearly 500 times!

Now the biggest fear of Odell owner’s is coming to fruition. What will Odell be like in life after Eli? One of the biggest knocks we in the fantasy community can say about a player is they are “not quarterback proof” meaning they can’t play well with a bad quarterback. All the top fantasy receivers tend to have this trait, and I doubt there is any reason to believe Odell’s talent can’t hold up with just about any quarterback.

Thankfully, because Odell is out for the year, we won’t have to find out what his stats will look like with Geno Smith at the helm. I recently traded for Odell in one of my leagues, but wish I had waited until this news had broken. With his injury and questions about his quarterback, his price may never be lower than it is right now.

Sterling Shepard, WR NYG

While not quite the same love connection as Eli and Odell, Sterling Shepard also had a pretty strong connection with Eli. In his rookie season, Eli targeted him 105 times of which he caught 65, put up 683 yards, and 8 touchdowns. While the touchdowns have come back down to earth this season, the connection continued pretty strong with Shepard catching 38 of 51 targets, putting up 475 yards, and one touchdown in seven games played.

Suffice to say, Shepard will miss Eli almost as much as Odell will. However, unlike Odell we will actually find out what Shepard is capable of with Geno Smith at the helm. Shepard is set to return from the migraines that have kept him out of game action the past two weeks just in time for the Geno era to begin.

Despite what Geno said about liking working with Travis Rudolph, it’s hard to imagine that Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram won’t still be the focal points of this offense. That could be good for Shepard’s rest of the season value, but it also means defenses will be able to key onto him. Engram can tell him what that’s like having experienced it the past two weeks.

I’ve always been higher on Shepard than others. There’s likely some bias here because his is the only jersey I own. However, he’s still the WR50 in .5 PPR leagues this season despite missing four games and was the WR36 in his rookie season. I’d be looking to buy from any owner who is frustrated by the injuries this season and the lack of a quarterback for next season. Don’t be shocked if the Giants use that top three pick to get themselves a new signal caller.

Evan Engram, TE NYG

You know the common knowledge that the Giants love to target their tight ends? Is that a case of the chicken or the egg? Is that the Giants loved to target them, or was it, Eli? Either way, Evan Engram is one of 24 rookie tight ends since 1920 to have at least 450 receiving yards and four touchdowns in their rookie seasons.

The other more recent examples? Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski, and Hunter Henry. Not bad company to keep eh? Okay, so Tim Wright and Jermaine Gresham are also on the list, but still impressive.

I’m not in the camp that believes this kills Engram’s value this year. Tight ends are often safety blankets for quarterbacks, and while it’s a limited sample the last time Geno was a full-time starter in 2014 he targeted Jace Amaro the third most of any of his receivers. Considering Engram is one of the only talented receivers left playing for the Giants this year, I expect him to be the second-most targeted if not the most.

Long term I’m even less concerned. Just like we all seem to know that the Giants like to target their tight ends, we also seem to know rookie quarterbacks like relying on their tight ends. Whoever the Giants bring in should be able to get the most out of Engram’s talents. Engram may still be pricey at the moment, but at least check in with the owner to see if they are panicking.

I realize I spent most of this article completely dumping on Geno, but I do want to provide a glimmer of hope here. In the last five games where he’s attempted at least 20 passes he’s thrown for 1266 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and had nearly a 65% completion percentage. That’s not bad but those starts were all between 2014 and 2015.

I’m not going to lie to you-I don’t think anyone else on the Giants is fantasy relevant. I just can’t hype any of the other guys on the roster without sending too much like a homer. At least not for the long haul, and with Geno now at the helm, it’s hard to trust any of them producing. Orleans Darkwa may still hold some deep league appeal for the rest of this season, but I fully expect the Giants to look for running back help next season.

So, there you have it dynasty owners and Giants fans. I do think the big three on this team are still worth owning, and I would be putting out feelers if your trade deadlines are still open. There is hope around the corner in a potential new franchise quarterback. It could blow up in our face, but for all we know they could provide better quarterback play than Eli the last few seasons. It’s always sad to move on from the face of your franchise, but just remember, it could always be worse. We could be Browns fans.

Until next time,

Rek

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