Welcome back to another edition of Vox Talks; the series that peels back the curtain on the private DLF writer Voxer chat.
Entering week 11, I had a very simple question for the DLF writers. Who is your current startup 1.01?
Choosing the most valuable player in fantasy football has been easy the past couple of seasons. For most, Odell Beckham Jr. was the slamdunk no-brainer selection. There are those who have kept Antonio Brown in that spot. There are even some weirdos who were taking a running back named David Johnson with the first overall pick. I think it’s fairly safe to say, though, Beckham has been the consensus top selection since 2015.
Beckham is still a fine choice, but I think an argument can be made for a handful of players. If you are a believer in the running back movement and think Ezekiel Elliott has learned his lesson then he is an attractive option that won’t even turn 23 until next summer.
DeAndre Hopkins is currently the WR1 in fantasy football and he is entering his prime production years, hopefully with a healthy Deshaun Watson in 2018 and beyond.
My choice though is Mike Evans. If I’m being honest, I would call him the 1a to OBJ’s 1b. Both are extremely talented young receivers, which is still what I want to build my teams around in most standard dynasty leagues.
What Beckham has done his first three seasons in the NFL is second to none, but I do worry a little about his quarterback once Eli Manning finally moves on. Manning is an easy target for his often terrible play, but clearly he has always done enough to make OBJ an elite option. It’s easy to say the Giants will just draft a quarterback with their early first round pick but there is no guarantee it will work out with whoever they bring in. We see first round quarterbacks bust all the time.
Evans, on the other hand, will continue to grow with the young and talented Jameis Winston under center. Winston has been up and down throughout his NFL career and he’s been banged up most of 2017, but for me, he is enough of a reason to elevate Evans over and the uncertainty that surrounds his future quarterback situation.
Let’s see what some of our writers had to say about who they would select with the number one overall pick in a standard PPR dynasty startup draft.
Odell Beckham Jr. He is the best wide receiver in the NFL and just turned 25 on November 5th. His only real drawback is an aging Eli Manning, but I’m confident that he will be able to produce WR1 numbers regardless of his quarterback situation.
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Are there options other than Odell Beckham Jr.? I couldn’t make a case for anyone else and I don’t think it’s really that close. If Nathan doesn’t even go to bat for Evans at 1.01, who’s going to make the case?
I’m looking at my teams and they are all telling me one thing – running backs are, well, back. The teams that are having the most success aren’t strong at wide receiver, they’re strong at running back.
With his resurgence under Head Coach Sean McVay, I’m ready to make a big bet on Todd Gurley as my 1.01. Just look at how good he is on a young team with an inexperienced head coach. Fast forward four years, and he could be flat out dominating and winning championships.
I know we all love wide receivers, but there have a been disappointments at that position again this season. When I look at the current landscape I have to go back to the ground with running backs.
Antonio Brown. He’s actually the best wide receiver in the NFL and people are overrating youth to an absurd degree.
Today, as it stands, there’s only one player that I wouldn’t trade to acquire Odell Beckham Jr. and that’s DeAndre Hopkins. I wouldn’t move one for the other, so I think that makes them 1a/1b. Hopkins has a better team and surrounding talent. OBJ is more talented. Gun to my head, I’m taking OBJ. But I’d have a real conversation with myself.
Odell Beckham Jr. My only other consideration would be Evans but he doesn’t have the pure talent OBJ does. I’m slightly worried about the QB situation and the offensive line, but until Giants fix the line they will need to pass a ton.
It’s still Odell Beckham Jr. for me by a decent amount, for the same reasons Nathan laid out. He’s still young, he’s proven to be quarterback-proof (Eli has been dreadful), and is one of the best receivers in football. This injury shouldn’t hinder him long term and I think anyone else you could make the case for at 1.01 has far more uncertainty surrounding them.
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Fascinating is the herd think on OBJ. Hard to disagree with it, but I will. With a fading QB, a done-done coach, no franchise RB on the roster, and regime change winds blowing at f1 levels in NY, it’s unlikely that he returns to form anytime soon. Sure he could, but to be the top dynasty asset, you gotta both be top producer now and confident to stay there a while. He’s neither now. My bet is Eli’s got only 1 more year after this one in NY, especially if the giants draft a QB early, as expected. Love OBJ, but his dominance in the top spot is over. Falling lower within the top 10 isn’t the end of the world, though.
As a Giants fan with exactly zero shares of OBJ (By the time I got to dynasty he was already a superstar) I’ll play devils advocate. The regime change winds blowing in the Meadowlands are exactly the reason to draft OBJ. He’s thrived in our terrible West Coast Offense (An offense that Eli is unsuited for) with a coach who spent a year running 90% of plays out of 11 personnel. Our entire offense has been “5-yard slant to OBJ and have him dodge 4 defenders and take it to the house”. We have had a bad OL and NO running game.
Now let’s talk new coach: We either have Eli running something closer to an Air Coryell offense (Which is perfect for him) and maybe pick up Barkley and adding to the OL, or the new regime just trades OBJ and sends him to a contender where he’s seeing 13 targets every game. For the last two years, OBJ has been killing it on a no-heart squad that gets mad at his passion for the game. That kid has been a star in almost the worst conditions imaginable (Okay, CLE would be worse…), he remains a star, and will continue to be a star for the next 7 or so years. PPR he’s easily the 1.01 unless we’re talking superflex or 2QB.
I look at Evans QB situation and I see risk. Different risk, but there’s still risk. How many times has he demonstrated (a) he has trouble staying healthy, and (b) he has trouble staying out of trouble. Another sexual harassment claim coming his way. Maybe it amounts to nothing, but it’s a reminder that there’s no guarantee the Evans/Winston connection is some surefire connection that’s going to blossom like Big Ben/Brown or Ryan/Julio.
There’s risk absolutely everywhere, but when I look at upside right now I see one thing: Deandre Hopkins. Look, it’s possible Watson pulls a Nick Foles and plummets in year 2 (I still have worries about his arm strength), but this offense was supporting the #1 QB and the #1 and #2 WRs while Watson was healthy. Maybe that’s non sustainable, but Hopkins is 25, has 0 injury history, has already proven he can produce in a bad environment and has possibly one of the young, elite QBs throwing his way.
Give me Hopkins. That ceiling is sky high.
