Devy Stock Market: The Trading Post
The fantasy football stock market is constantly fluctuating and it is always important for us to know which players have a price that has become exploitable whether it be to buy or sell. Pieces like this one have been fairly commonplace in the industry for a while in both redraft and dynasty, but I will be focusing on college players for devy dynasty leagues and how their week-to-week performances are affecting their price in those leagues.
In this week’s stock market, I’ll be breaking down some recent trades made involving devy players.
Todd Gurley
for
Derrick Henry, Derrius Guice and Calvin Ridley
From an NFL perspective, the emphasis of this trade focuses on the hot start from Todd Gurley and the lack thereof from Derrick Henry. Henry remains behind DeMarco Murray while Gurley is the top scoring back in PPR scoring.
Just a few months ago, with much of the community down on Gurley, you would’ve been hard pressed to get just Derrius Guice for Gurley, but an impressive start results in being able to get Guice along with Henry and Calvin Ridley. The conversation entering the season was Saquon Barkley or Derrius Guice for 2018 RB1, and while many have answered that with Barkley due to his early season dominance, Guice has performed as well with 314 rushing yards and five touchdowns despite battling injuries.
Calvin Ridley may be an older prospect set to enter the NFL at 23 years old, but he has also played well this year with the highest yards per catch of his college career at 13.4, along with 322 receiving yards and two touchdowns. I value Guice as a high first round rookie pick in normal leagues, with Ridley valued at a high second round rookie pick. This trade comes down to production now versus upside later, but it comes down to Gurley is a league winner this year and if you are a contender, it is a risk worth taking.
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Amari Cooper, Leonard Fournette and Jacob Eason
for
Todd Gurley and Joe Mixon
Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley were the focus of the in-podcast trade poll on this week’s Dynasty Tradecast. Twitter heavily favored Gurley as he got 76% of the votes, I think it is more of a coin flip and when it is a coin flip between running back and wide receiver, I always favor the wide receiver. So let’s say Gurley and Cooper cancel out, it then becomes Fournette and Eason for Mixon.
Entering the season, I was excited about the prospects of Jacob Eason, but it appears he has lost his job to injury as his replacement Freshman Jake Fromm has played well in his absence, with 734 passing yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. The list of college quarterbacks who have lost starting jobs and then became successful NFL quarterbacks is few and far between. Jacob Eason isn’t Tom Brady and he no longer holds much value in devy leagues, even in superflex. So it becomes Fournette for Mixon and I definitely prefer Fournette predraft, post draft and now, four weeks into the season.
Mike Williams
for
Courtland Sutton
When DLF’s Doctor, Dr. Scott Peak makes a trade involving an injured player, it always causes a raise in the eye brow and this was an intriguing one to look at. Williams was the seventh overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft, but has yet to see the field due to his neck injury.
Courtland Sutton entered the 2017 season as many people’s WR1 in college football. So far in 2017, the touchdowns have been there for Sutton with seven touchdowns in five games, but his receiving yards per game has dipped from 103.83 yards per game to only 65.8 yards per game this season. Many have dropped Williams due to his early career injuries, but I think he should still be valued around where he was taken in rookie drafts, between 1.04-1.06. While Williams has injury risk, Sutton has draft capital risk.
We know Williams was the seventh overall pick, at this stage, I’d consider it unlikely that Sutton is a top 12 pick in the NFL draft unless he returns to 2016 form. I’d rather have Williams at this time, because I’d rather have the injury risk than the risk of Sutton’s stock falling between now and the NFL draft.
Amari Cooper and James Washington
for
Christian McCaffrey and Mike Williams
I think is another instance of an overreaction to Amari Cooper’s slow start in 2017. Cooper may be WR68 through four weeks, but that doesn’t erase two years of an awesome career start with 155 catches for 2,223 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.
Cooper should still be clearly valued above Christian McCaffrey, and Washington versus Williams is similar to the Williams versus Sutton argument from earlier. However, Washington’s amazing season of 647 receiving yards and five touchdowns while averaging 23.1 yards per catch makes the argument for Washington going around seven overall in the NFL draft or possibly higher.
Even if Washington does have more value than Williams, that gap is smaller than the gap between Cooper and McCaffrey. From a strictly redraft perspective, I’d rather have McCaffrey than Cooper with EJ Manuel for the next several weeks, but from a long term perspective, I see this as an easy win for the Cooper side.
Equanimeous St. Brown, Derrick Henry and Martavis Bryant
for
Antonio Brown, Devin Funchess and Bilal Powell
This is a clear win now versus win later deal, but this may an example of selling low in an attempt for a rebuild. St. Brown is the big piece in this deal that could determine this trade going toward the Brown side heavily, or a closer deal.
St. Brown came into the season as one of the most highly touted wide receivers in the country. In 2017, he has been underwhelming, with only 14 catches for 202 receiving yards and two touchdowns in five games. Notre Dame has been an inconsistent offense throughout St. Brown’s college career, so if he has success in the NFL, it will likely be a result of going to a better situation than he has had at Notre Dame.
In recent weeks, Funchess has shown he should hold some value with flashes and Bilal Powell is a nice win-now piece who can fill in on bye weeks and injuries. Henry and Bryant have also been inconsistent and have shown the ability to possibly RB1/WR1’s in the future, but I don’t think that potential bridges the gap between St. Brown’s potential and the dominance of Antonio Brown that doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon.
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