2017 IDP Off-Season Targets
With minicamps currently happening around the NFL, there’s an awful lot of positivity surrounding all 32 teams. Everyone is “looking great,” “poised for a huge step forward” or “on the brink of a breakout.” Digging through all that trash is often difficult, especially with “rookie fever” running rampant right now. This is the time of year where we are convinced a fourth-round rookie is going to supplant a veteran presence and become an IDP asset.
We all have our favorite late round sleepers, but they’re not all going to make a first-year impact and it presents an opportunity to buy veteran players at a discount. This time last year you could’ve bought Paul Posluszny for a bag of half-eaten Funyuns because we were all convinced Myles Jack was going to come in and dominate. Instead, Posluszny finished with his second consecutive 133 tackle season and was a key cog for IDP leaguers. I’m going to talk about a few players who I feel have similar value for 2017 and can provide solid return on their investment.
Tahir Whitehead, WLB DET
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Tahir Whitehead is a player I have in every one of my IDP leagues, either because I owned him last year or I was able to get him as a throw-in to another trade. So why are people bailing on a player who racked up 128 total tackles last year? Well, his numbers were inflated because of volume on a defense which wasn’t good at all. According to PFF’s inside linebacker ratings, he finished 59th out of 59 qualifiers. For those keeping score at home, that’s not good. The Lions went and draft Jarrad Davis in the first round of this year’s draft to play middle linebacker and quickly named him the starter. They also drafted Jalen Reeves-Maybin in the fourth round and some people believe he’ll overtake Whitehead on the weak side. I do not.
So why buy Whitehead? He’s a better player on the outside but offers a lot of versatility. He’s going to be an every-down linebacker on a defense which still isn’t going to be great. The Lions didn’t address their weakness on the defensive line and the secondary is still a big question mark. He doesn’t have to be efficient to be an IDP producer for 2017. His main competition in 2017 will not come from Reeves-Maybin, who I actually like long term, but instead from IDP punchline Paul Worrilow, and Antwione Williams. Neither of these guys are better than Whitehead. I’m expecting low-end LB2 numbers from him this year and he’s being treated as a fringe LB3/LB4. He’s without a doubt worth taking on at that price.
Demario Davis, ILB NYJ
Look, Demario Davis isn’t going to win any beauty contests, but it’s closing time and beggars can’t be choosers. Davis left New York last off-season for Cleveland in free agency and came up one tackle short of his third 100+ tackle season in four years. Going back to Gang Green will actually help his IDP outlook quite significantly. While he wasn’t efficient in 2016, Darron Lee was arguably just as bad. With the recent release of David Harris, there are a ton of tackles up for grabs. There’s not a real nice way to say this but the Jets are an absolute dumpster fire on both sides of the ball and have to be the odds-on favorite for the top pick in 2018. For as bad as this defense is going to be, the offense is going to be so much worse. Davis might be the cheapest lock for 100+ tackles in IDP land and someone you couldn’t be less excited about owning.
NaVorro Bowman, MLB SF
Every once in a while the off-season news cycle fires some crazy news blurb out of left field and opens a window to acquire a player at a big time discount. In my opinion, this is exactly what’s happening with Bowman right now. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat recently ran a story saying “they expect the 49ers to cut NaVorro Bowman.” That’s ridiculous. He’s less than one year into a seven-year, $77 million contract and cutting him loose would create nearly $11 million in dead money. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat’s story feels like click bait to me.
Other reports have been very positive regarding Bowman’s recovery and performance throughout April and June’s minicamp. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Bowman “looks like the linebacker he’s seen on tape.” So far things are very positive regarding his recovery from October’s Achilles injury and he’s out to prove he’s still one of the best linebackers in the league. This year the 49ers are switching to a one-gap 4-3 defense after Bowman thrived in a 3-4 defense. They added first-round rookie linebacker Reuben Foster and free agent Malcolm Smith to bolster the linebacker group but Bowman isn’t resting on his laurels. With a new coaching staff and a new scheme to learn, he knows nothing is guaranteed.
My advice is to kick the tires on a Bowman trade. With the addition of Foster, the two lower leg injuries and the negative blurb ran on Rotoworld from the Santa Rosa Press Democrat, owners might be willing to move a top ten dynasty linebacker at a heavy discount. In most cases, you won’t get him for pennies on the dollar but you might not ever have an opportunity to get him at this value again.
Calvin Pryor, S CLE
This is a pure shot in the dark and I’m only adding him if he’s on waivers or dirt cheap, but I think Pryor could be defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ new Mark Barron. Barron was a “left for dead” safety of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before he landed with Williams in St. Louis and moved to weak-side linebacker. He’s now a solid IDP asset and was rewarded with a five-year, $45 million contract last off-season. Pryor was on the other end of the aforementioned Demario Davis trade. When Cleveland traded Davis to the Jets it left a hole in the middle of the defense and it’s unclear how they plan on filling it. Right now Tank Carder, a career special teamer, is lightly penciled in as the starting middle linebacker but I’m very curious to see if they try to use Pryor, Jabrill Peppers and either Ed Reynolds or Ibraheim Campbell at the same time to disguise their scheme and get as much speed and athleticism on the field at once. Adding Pryor should also allow the Browns to use Peppers on offense and special teams more as well. He should be a dirt cheap addition who has the ability to provide a huge return on investment.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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