Rookie SWOT: Corey Davis
Name:Â Corey Davis
Position:Â Wide Receiver
Pro Team:Â Tennessee Titans
College Team:Â Central Michigan Broncos
Draft Status:Â Round One, Pick No. 5 Overall
Video Highlights
Combine Review
- Height: 6’3.”
- Weight: 209 Pounds
- Arm Length: 33’’
- Bench Press: N/A
- 40-Yard-Dash: N/A
- 20-Yard-Shuttle: N/A
- 3-Cone: N/A
- Vertical: N/A
- Broad Jump: N/A
Strengths
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Wide receivers are supposed to run routes like a laser cutting fine glass, and Corey Davis does exactly that with his sharp cuts and straight-line speed. He knows how to sell a route as well with great head fakes and double moves. Davis rarely uses his body to catch passes, and his catch radius is quite large.
The Titans are going to love his versatility as he played all over the field in college. The defense isn’t going to want the ball in Davis’ hands as he is dangerous and very hard to corral. He has an acute attention to detail and knows how to use his feet when near the sidelines. Defensive coordinators will have to watch their zone coverage when facing Tennessee, as Davis will exploit and damage it. Good luck trying to get the ball out of his hands, as Davis has only one fumble on 266 receptions in the last three years.
Weaknesses
He will need to get more consistent when going after 50/50 jump balls. Davis is unbeatable one moment, then disappointing the next with a propensity to drop passes. Each year Davis increased the number of drops ending with 11 in 2016. I believe this was due more to a lack of focus than an inability, so he will need to get more disciplined there. When running go routes, Davis has a hard time shaking coverage and is a little stiff, especially when trying to create big plays with underneath throws.
Opportunities
Just one season ago the Tennessee Titans were on the hook for executing “exotic smashmouth” running, and now they have potentially the best wide receiver on the team. I still think Tennessee is going to run the ball, but they finally have a receiver that can open up their offense even more. Although Delanie Walker has been their number one receiver since 2014, it has been a pit of despair for the Titans at wide receiver overall. The last receiver they could truly count on was Derrick Mason in 2004. Now with Davis, they have some legitimacy going forward. Davis should be the number one or close to it depending on Rishard Matthews. Tennessee has set themselves up nicely now and can operate a three wide receiver set.
Threats
The major threats are three-fold. First, Rishard Matthews came alive last season to post 65 receptions for 945 yards and nine touchdowns. Second, the Titans offensive scheme might not bode well for Davis in fantasy. The Titans are a running offense and it may take several years to move away into a more passer friendly scheme. On top of that both Walker’s and Matthews’ contract expires in 2018, so how much they invest in receivers down the road will be telling. Third, quarterback Marcus Mariota is a multi-talented athlete. He can run with the ball, and this will limit passing opportunities for Davis.
Another threat possibility is free agent Eric Decker. If he lands on the team, this would be an obvious threat. He’s older, but still has a couple of seasons left at peak level.
Short-Term Expectations
I don’t see Davis exploding on the scene for at least two seasons. However, this is more due to his role and team than his talent level. Tennessee increased the role for Mariota last year as he had more pass attempts and did well with them. Mariota’s rushing numbers also increased. I just don’t see room for more receptions outside of what Matthews and Walker will be getting. Taywan Taylor is also involved, and Davis is coming off an ankle injury. Temper expectations though for at least the first two years as he will miss time learning and getting reps in the offense.
Long-Term Expectations
Thank goodness for dynasty leagues, because this is where Davis will pay off for you. I do believe that Tennessee will eventually move to a more intense passing game. Mariota has the talent, makes good decisions, and they have a solid core of wide receivers. For Davis, it means the offense will open up for the big target receiver moving into an Andy Dalton to A.J. Green type of relationship. Davis is a pro-ready wide receiver; he just needs the opportunity to showcase his talents.
NFL Comparison
Two players stick out in my mind. First, is a slower (but not by much) A.J. Green. Both have good height and slender build with long arms. Both have deceptive speed, and if Davis can get better at winning 50/50 balls, he would make an almost identical impression. Each can get deep and have great ball tracking skills.
Second is Keenan Allen. Both receivers have similar athletic ability and speed. Each demonstrates a solid grasp of route running and ball skills. Each is very similar in body type and have that special ability to make plays happen.
Projected Range for Rookie Drafts
At this point, there is nobody better than Corey Davis. He is the number one receiver according to DLF rookie drafts by a large margin. To define it even clearer, he is in a tier by himself. There is only another possibility that I would consider and that is Christian McCaffrey. At this point, he is going seven picks lower in overall ADP.
In dynasty rankings, he drops down just a tad bit. At this point, he is the 23rd player selected overall in ADP. In the six mock drafts, he has been chosen anywhere between 22-25. Key players drafted before him include Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, and Todd Gurley. Those selected after him Jordan Howard, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Baldwin, and Davante Adams.
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