Ranking In a Vacuum: Rookie Wide Receivers and College Dominance
Editor’s Note: This article is submitted by Member Corner writer, Peter Howard. We look forward to seeing much more of Peter’s work in the future.
Winston Churchill made famous the words of an unknown colleague when he said: “democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried.” In the same way, evaluating rookies using the Market Share of college production by age is not the best way to evaluate rookies; it’s just better than all the others.
Anyone ranking players, at any position, must take into consideration multiple factors including situation and draft capital. However, I will examine college production in a vacuum.
I’ll begin the case against using college production only.
Why is it the worst way?
The Ravens drafted Michael Campanaro in the seventh round of the 2014 NFL draft. I can lay a thick wall of numbered proof that he is an incredible prospect. He has ample athleticism and college production to make both a productive NFL and fantasy wide receiver.
On the other hand, the only story I can tell you about Kelvin Benjamin is a horror story.
I think the trend for both wide receivers seems to be coming back to the mean in 2017. But so far, which would you rather have drafted in your rookie draft? Benjamin has been a heck of a lot more useful and valuable in the intervening years.
Side note: If you can trade Kelvin Benjamin in a deal and get Michael Campanaro back; that’s winning with the same cards twice.
Why is it the best way?
Because you will be right more often in the long run. You’d avoid Nelson Agholor and Philip Dorsett. You would have bought-in (hard) in the 2014 class including Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson and Jordan Matthews. College production by age evaluation avoids Kevin White and gets excited about Stefon Diggs.
We can mislead ourselves with numbers, but some numbers are more misleading than others. I’m not interested in counting stats for examining college production. Simply put, they lie more then Market Share.
Rashad Greene had two 1,000 plus yard seasons in the last two years of college, but his Market Share is more descriptive of who he was as a prospect. (FYI, Greene was the leading receiver on Kelvin Benjamin’s college team in the two years Benjamin played.)
The share of a college offense a wide receiver earned – and what age he was when he compiled it – can help guide us towards the best probabilities for fantasy points.
Now, to be clear, there is a lot more to understanding Market Share of Receiver Yards (MSyds), and production by age. I strongly suggest you check out Jon Moore’s work on RotoViz and take a long look at Jim Kloet’s excellent visualizations on the same topic.
Needless to say, a good tool used improperly… well… the punch line is – you lose your fingers.
Cut the preamble, give me the rankings
If I were to judge rookie wide receivers in 2017 purely by their college production, I’d be crazy. But I have and will continue to use it as my starting point, a place to begin, before I consider draft capital, situation and (since this is still a game I play for fun) how cool it makes my lineup look.
I’m only going to rank players who were actually drafted in the 2017 NFL draft because if we wade off into the UDFA pool I’d be here for a few weeks. So, in a vacuum, and purely with what I’m calling “rough-shod subjective eyeballing of college production by age”, I give you my top ten rookie wide receivers of 2017.
1. Corey Davis, WR TEN
There is no debate to be had, Corey Davis is a phenomenal prospect and if he’s not your number one rookie wide receiver, you are wrong. Some things just are.
Just in case it’s not clear enough, notice that I had to extend the Y axis to include all of Davis’s numbers. His touchdown share literally spikes out of the graph I use for other wide receivers.
2. Isaiah Ford, WR MIA
Yeah, this is where things get weird. He has an athletic profile to rival Willie Snead and Jarvis Landry (not good). But I don’t know of another drafted wide receiver (outside of Corey Davis) who was anywhere near this productive at 18 years old. Or one who maintained such a clear dominance, for that matter. I don’t want to go too far off the path of judging college production, but being drafted in the seventh round by the Miami Dolphins – I’m finding it hard to stash him in most leagues, but I want to, damn it, I want to!
3. Chris Godwin, WR TB
I don’t think I need to explain much about this already-hyped wide receiver, right? He’s got the athleticism to match – check. Also good in college – check. No surprises here.
4. Juju Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
Similar to Godwin, Juju Smith-Schuster was very good in college. You can flip their ranks if you like, as I have a few times. Juju was better by a hair in their freshmen years, but Godwin wins in MSyds in their sophomore year. The decision-maker for me was whose numbers dropped off further in their junior campaign.
5. Taywan Taylor, WR TEN
He slips a little for me because he wasn’t as productive – as young – as the players ahead of him. I could put him above the last two players. He reached a higher level of dominance at age 21, but he also played with an age and experience advantage at 21 that Godwin and Juju didn’t stay to take advantage of. Taylor got better every year, and at a significant rate, so he has to be top five either way.
6. Kenny Golladay, WR DET
Golladay redshirted a year after transferring to Northern Illinois so I have to put him below the others. But he sure didn’t skip a beat when he came back – even with an increase in competition level. If he had a straight line to connect his age 19 and age 21 season, he’d be number two. (He’s the only other player who needed an extended y-axis)
7. Zay Jones, WR BUF
Jones was more productive at a younger age than some above him in these ranks. He also out-produced Taylor (at least, in Touchdown Market Share) in his final year. But I have to drop him to seven. I don’t know what his production – fueled by that many catches (158 in 2016!) – will translate to in the NFL. There is a chance that his volume of receptions inflated his Market Share numbers as well as his counting stats.
8. Josh Reynolds, WR LAR
Reynolds was drafted in the fourth round by the LA Rams. I have no idea how that depth chart will shake out, but it helps to know that the hype he received in some places isn’t built on sand. In fact, it’s built on early and dominant college production. There is a higher volume of touchdowns compared to yards, however, which reminds me a little of Josh Doctson. Unfortunately, Doctson is not a great example of what may be to come because he hasn’t been able to play a season yet.
9. Chad Williams, WR ARI
Williams was another steady riser – as he got older, he kept taking up more and more of the offense. He was not quite as productive at any age as those I put in front of him, however it’s still more than enough to indicate a good likelihood of success. He also probably the best athleticism of anyone on this list.
10. Mike Williams, WR LAC
Jerome Lane went undrafted (to the Colts) so I need a tenth guy. I’m putting Williams in here (I can hear you hating me right now).
The reason I’m including him is of the injury he suffered in his age 20 season. If I imagine one good year there, he still looks weak by Market Share. But it gets better if I then imagine a better age 21 year season – because he hadn’t only just come back from a near career-ending injury – but you have to squint to see it though.
I don’t encourage you to see numbers that aren’t there, but I can’t rule it out either. There’s no denying he was productive, but his Market Shares totals aren’t good enough to get him any higher in a vacuum. If you draft him, it’s a bet on draft capital alone.
Honorable mentions
Deangelo Yancey, WR GB
Dede Westbrook, WR JAC
Conclusion
There you have it. I’m not saying this is the order I’d draft the rookie receivers in. But it is where I start from before taking draft capital and situation into consideration. Clearly, several of them will be better waiver wire pick ups after the draft than actual draft picks.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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