Rookies Destined to be Overdrafted

Where a rookie lands can certainly have an impact on his professional career. Often times, though, I think many of us in the dynasty community, myself included, place too much emphasis on a player’s situation.

As I said when I did this series last year, Josh Gordon had his insane 1,646-yard campaign on a disastrous Cleveland offense. Mike Evans scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie despite the fact Tampa Bay only scored 28 offensive touchdowns. (Then, when the Buccaneers actually had a decent offense in 2015, totaling 1,400 more yards than they did in 2014, Evans had just three scores despite catching six more balls for 155 more yards.)

It works the other way, too. Each summer, players who land in what seems like an ideal situation get a boost in dynasty value after the NFL Draft. Josh Ferguson and Josh Robinson were things once because they ended up with the Colts. Eric Ebron was a mid-first-round pick in 2015 rookie drafts because Detroit seemed like a great spot.

Obviously, opportunity is key in any fantasy format — players can’t score points without snaps, targets or carries — but in dynasty, with the way a player’s situation can change quickly in today’s NFL, we can afford to draft more on talent and less on circumstance.

Here, we’re going to look at three players who have a good chance to be overdrafted in rookie drafts this summer. Two are rookies whose value appears to have been positively impacted by the teams which chose them in the draft. The other is a player who looks like he has a very low ceiling, but he’s not being valued like it.

Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts

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Well, we touched on Robinson and Ferguson in the intro, but it seems like we haven’t learned our lesson because we’re talking ourselves into a Colts rookie running back once again. Per our rookie average draft position (ADP) data, Mack was the 32nd overall rookie in March, and he’s up to 23rd in May. 

I get it — I definitely get it. In a league I’m in with 11 DLF brethren, I took Mack 29th overall in our rookie draft, so I’m sipping some of the Kool-Aid. With Andrew Luck at the controls, the Colts’ offense should be a fantasy-friendly attack for the foreseeable future. Frank Gore was in Eric Dickerson’s draft class (don’t look it up), and Robert Turbin probably isn’t a top-notch backup. The Colts are a great situation for a rookie back, and having Indy’s top running back on your dynasty team would be really nice.

But I think about 95% of the reason Mack has climbed nearly ten spots in value is the fact Indy took him, and that they chose him in the fourth round, which was a little earlier than some people thought Mack would go.

NFL teams are wrong a lot, but with that said, it does speak well for Mack that the Colts spent something other than a really late pick on him. However, as the RB11 in this class, per May ADP, Mack may not have the three-down skillset to live up to his value. Athleticism isn’t the issue — he was a SPARQ darling — but NFL evaluators didn’t like his tape, with Matt Miller calling him a “better athlete than football player.” Mack was routinely criticized across the draft industry as a back who tried too hard for home-run plays.

We know there’s going to be a need for another back in Indy sometime soon, but Mack appears to be more of a project than a player who is ready to contribute soon.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

Jones is a similar case to Mack as his value took a big jump after the Packers spent a fifth-round pick on him. In fact, Jones’ value has risen as much as any player post-draft. He was 51st overall in our March ADP, and he’s climbed to 29th overall in May — a massive jump.

I don’t need to waste time telling you how awesome it would be for Jones’ fantasy stock if he was great and won a three-down role in an Aaron Rodgers’ led attack. It would obviously be amazing, but anytime a player jumps 20-some spots due to his landing spot, we have to be wary.

For starters, while one of the positives for Mack is the lack of competition in Indy, the backfield in Green Bay is plenty crowded. To be a good fantasy producer, a running back needs to see goal-line work or be a factor in the passing game (both, ideally), and it’s hard to see Jones fitting into either of those roles.

Ty Montgomery had a pretty nice 2016 campaign after becoming a full-time running back, averaging 5.9 yards per rush on a small sample of 77 attempts. It’s probably safe to assume Montgomery will improve with an off-season of work as a running back, even if he may not ever be a true three-down thumper. Montgomery’s background makes him an ideal fit for a passing-game role even if he flops as an early-down runner moving forward.

Montgomery is certainly in Jones’ way, and there’s also Jamaal Williams, another rookie runner who Green Bay took in the fourth round. That right there tells you the organization thinks Williams is better even though their opinions can surely be swayed by Williams’ and Jones’ on-field performance moving forward. Williams has been touted as a “powerful” runner who “sees it and goes” — which sounds like someone I’d want to give the ball to near the goal-line.

On one hand, Green Bay taking two running backs could be viewed as the team not having much confidence in Montgomery. On the other hand, the Packers acquired Knile Davis, Christine Michael and Don Jackson at various points during the 2016 season, and none of them are on their current roster. The Packers needed running backs in the worst way, so they got some.

As far as Jones’ pre-draft scouting report, he is considered a player who doesn’t run with power and isn’t good in short-yardage situations, according to his CBS draft profile. Sure, he could improve in that area, but it doesn’t seem like it’s his strong suit.

Jones also played four years at UTEP and saw more than 300 total touches (658 carries and 71 targets). While that workload could be taken as a sign of stability and reliability, it’s a ton of wear and tear on his body before he takes a pro snap.

If Jones isn’t as good of a pass catcher as Montgomery or as good in short-yardage situations as Williams, it’s difficult to find a path for him to score a bunch of fantasy points barring a bunch of injuries.

You can never write off any running back regardless of their talent level. If they’re in the NFL, they obviously have some ability, and as Rob Kelley showed last year, even a middling talent can be a productive fantasy producer if given 15-plus carries in a game. In that same vein, what scouts and talent evaluators think of a player isn’t the be all end all, but the ADP data shows us Jones’ off-season rise is mostly precipitated by his landing spot. We should be skeptical of such players.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Opposite of the first two, Kupp’s ADP has fallen since the draft. He was the 24th overall player in March, and he slipped to 27th in May. I still think he’s overvalued, though.

At 6-foot-2, 204 pounds, Kupp has the size to play outside, but he was deployed as a bigger slot receiver at Eastern Washington. If he plays as a slot wideout with the Rams, he faces an uphill battle to fantasy relevance as there just aren’t many examples of slot weapons on bad offenses turning into must-have fantasy assets.

While just about all slot-type receivers have a lower ceiling due to not normally seeing much red-zone work, Kupp’s ceiling is lower than most. Jared Goff was nothing short of atrocious last year, and the Rams ran the second-fewest plays (960) while finishing last in yards per play (4.4). They were very bad. Maybe Kupp develops into the team’s number one target, but the Rams have taken seven wideouts/tight ends in the past two years so there is plenty of competition for targets.

As we know, it’s difficult for any slot receiver to produce big-time numbers. There are exceptions, of course. Jarvis Landry and Julian Edelman operate primarily out of the slot, and they were able to become coveted dynasty assets. But Edelman plays in a great offense with one of the best quarterbacks ever, and Landry sees immense volume on an offense that’s pretty good (seventh in yards per play in 2016).

If the Rams transition Kupp to more of an outside wideout, which some people think he can handle, it will give his upside a slight boost. Even still, barring a drastic improvement from Goff or an insane target load, Kupp is going to be a low-floor, low-ceiling asset — not something in which we want to invest.

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