Mind of Miller: Rookie Rankings, Part One
I’ve got a fever, and the only prescription is more rookie talk. But also some Advil (use the offer code Miller). That’s right DLF readers, and that one weird Russian guy who keeps hacking my webcam, with only a couple weeks to go until the NFL Draft, it’s time for me to get my poop in a group and release my pre-draft rookie rankings. Along with each player, I’ll include a few thoughts and the Truly Huge and Now Known Super Official Best and Most Accurate™ (THANKSOBAMA) prediction metric*.
*THANKSOBAMA is calculated as follows: First I take five shots of Patron without a lime chaser (fruit is for the weak). Then I throw darts at a board, which is totally unrelated but I thought I should mention it. Finally, and this is the key factor, I make a wild, somewhat educated-ish, almost sure to be wrong guess. So, basically, I’m virtually guaranteed to be correct.
This week will feature my top-six, with next week’s Mind of Miller rounding out the top-12.
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1.01 – Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan
When I look at receiver prospects, my favorite traits almost always come down to technique. Can they run good routes? Do they have the ability to fool defenders with double moves, head fakes, etc.? Are they able to create separation without relying on physical or athletic ability? Davis crushes these questions with yeses all around. That he also has good hands, is a terror with the ball in his possession, and competes on every play solidifies his standing at the top of my board. Davis is in a tier of one and is the only receiver in this draft who has truly legitimate shot at being an elite dynasty contributor.
THANKSOBAMA prediction: Poor-man’s A.J. Green who posts mid to high-end WR2 numbers.
1.02 – Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State
I wrote a lot of words on Cook for a rookie profile that was posted just this morning. Go read it, I’ll wait here. Back? Yeah, right. You didn’t even leave. Jerk. Fine, here are the cliff notes: His film is unreal. His production is unreal. He is unreal. Sometimes players are so good at football, it doesn’t matter if they can run quickly around orange cones. Jarvis Landry comes to mind as a recent example. Cook is that guy, and I love him so very much.
THANKSOBAMA prediction: A high floor fringe top-five running back who plays like the unholy child of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman.
1.03 – Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford
This is a close competition with Joe Mixon nipping at McCaffrey’s heels. CM’s ability to wear a number of hats, including one that could see him catch more than 70 passes per season, is what puts King Size Darren Sproles over the top. Not exactly built like a traditional back, McCaffrey could likely handle 10-12 weekly carries to go with five or more receptions without too much difficulty. If he gets that sort of volume, it is hard to see Easy Ed’s son as anything other than a very good RB1. There are landing spot concerns, as a coach trying to shoehorn the versatile back into a traditional role would sully his outlook. If we can avoid that, I’d be stoked to have him at 1.03.
THANKSOBAMA prediction: Similar outcome range as Cook, except with a lower floor since many teams struggle to properly use players of this ilk.
1.04 – Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma
Let’s get the difficult stuff out of the way: I know Mixon did a reprehensible thing. He may even be an awful person. But I have almost no concern that truly awful event is predictive of future incidents. Aside from Greg Hardy, who is an insane person, we haven’t seen much precedent for an outed abuser to be a repeat offender.
With that said, Mixon the player has a near-ideal mixture of size and athleticism and is a highly polished pass catcher. In the right offense, his ceiling is probably higher than any other back in the draft. The caveat in the last sentence comes down to vision issues. At times, Mixon looks a bit lost behind the line of scrimmage. In my film study I found myself wanting him to attack more, especially when the hole was small or quick to disappear. His anticipation is also below average, causing him to be late on more than one occasion.
THANKSOBAMA prediction: Mixon gains a bit of urgency at the point of attack and finds himself right in the mix with McCaffrey and Cook, knocking on the door of the top-five dynasty backs.
1.05 – Mike Williams, WR Clemson
At one point Williams was seen as the possible top receiving prospect in this draft. If this was 2016, he would be just that on my board. Unfortunately for the soon to be 763rd Mike Williams in NFL history, there are four really good players I like better this year. With that said, I’ve really come around on Williams the last few weeks. My initial take had him a distant sixth in this group, but further study shows a slower, more competitive Alshon Jeffery. While his inability to separate does concern me, he is so good in every other area, I am confident the massive 6’5” receiver can overcome the deficiency. The range of outcomes for Williams is wider than Davis, but I see a slightly worse Jeffery/much better Kelvin Benjamin.
THANKSOBAMA prediction: Williams settles into the WR16-18 range but never gets the respect he deserves from dynasty owners.
1.06 – Leonard Fournette, RB LSU
If it was 2004, Fournette may be my 1.01. Unfortunately for him, in today’s NFL, unless you possess Zeke Elliot talent, being a two-down banger isn’t the best path to elite fantasy production. For example, let’s look at Marshawn Lynch, another guy with immense skill who didn’t catch many passes. In his last three healthy seasons, from 2012-2015, Lynch finished as the RB5, RB5, and RB4 respectively. His average stat line over that span was 299 carries for 1384 yards (4.64 per) and 12 touchdowns. To me, that is Fournette’s likely best case scenario. If that is true, how can we expect him to ever be more than the RB5, especially considering the major infusion of talent at the position both this year and next?
THANKSOBAMA prediction: Proves to be a solid, oft-injured, mid-range RB1 who never finds a way to crack into the top-five.
I will see you next week with 1.07-1.12!
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