Breaking Down the ADP: Quarterbacks
One of the most common comments/compliments commented commonly to me is our reader’s love of the player comments in our rankings. I appreciate people taking notice because I think they are very often more helpful than the ranking itself. They do have a rather pesky length limitation, though. It was with that in mind that Mr. Dan Sainio and I set out to craft expanded comments for the top-10 quarterbacks and tight ends and top-20 running backs and wide receivers from our February startup ADP.
We each pitched in about 100 words per player to give you two different viewpoints. No notes were compared, so while some comments may be similar, there are plenty of differences as well. This series will be stretched out over six parts, with each pushing into the 2,000 word territory. While longer than most articles released here, we think the short, consumable, blurbish nature of the format will make it pretty easy to digest while still being very informational.
QB1 – Andrew Luck (ADP 42)
Jeff: In his last two healthy seasons, Luck has averaged 21.1 PPG, a pace that locks him into top-three production. With a returning Donte Moncrief and his relative youth (only 27), Luck is the common choice for QB1. While there are some who still prefer Aaron Rodgers, I expect them to score similarly in 2017, which should get those detractors on board.
Dan: After a nice bounce back season following 2015 where he played just seven games, Luck has proven once again to be very productive with a poor offensive line and an average at best rushing attack. While I prefer another option as the top quarterback, Luck likely has the most remaining years of elite fantasy output, as he is just 27-years-old. With a top wide receiver tandem and positive changes being made in Indy’s management, Luck seems to be locked in as the top dynasty option for the foreseeable future.
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QB2 – Aaron Rodgers (ADP 44)
Jeff: You would be hard pressed to find somebody outside of our own George Kritikos who doesn’t see Rodgers as a top-two quarterback option. (QB5? Come on, George.) Yeah, he is 33, but after sitting several seasons behind Brett Favre, the wear and tear is much less than his similarly aged peers. Even without that fact, Rodgers is probably the only QB in the NFL capable of consistently pushing over 350 points. With Davante Adams breaking out and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb healthy, that should be a reasonable goal yet again.
Dan: My personal top QB, Rodgers, used the 2016 season to prove once again that his production floor and potential ceiling are unmatched. Throwing 600+ passes certainly helps, but being the most physically gifted passer of this generation might have something to do with it as well. Sure, he may be a bit older than some others at the top of this list, but he certainly doesn’t play like an old guy. With Nelson, Adams, Cobb and the emergence of Ty Montgomery, Rodgers is surrounded with talent and has plenty of QB1 years in front of him.
QB3 – Russell Wilson (ADP 59)
Jeff: This is where the disagreements may begin. Unlike this time last year, there are as many as five guys in play for this slot. Wilson gets the nod, most likely due to the notion his injury issues are what caused a sub-par 2016. Cam Newton, his most serious competition for this slot, gets no such excuse. Even with this being his worst season as a pro by far, Wilson was still a QB1. If this was his floor, an ADP of QB3 is more than fair, plus a return to 20 PPG could push him by Rodgers.
Dan: It was pretty clear Wilson wasn’t healthy for part, or possibly all, of 2016. Even so, we find him at QB3. With the possibility 2015 was an outlier from a TD production standpoint, Wilson still has a ton of upside considering his ability and willingness to run, as well as the Seahawks transition to lean a little heavier on the pass. Seattle does need to address the issues on the offensive line, or we might not be able to see 16 healthy games from Wilson. When all is said and done, Russell should be a top-five dynasty QB without question.
QB4 – Cam Newton (ADP 62)
Jeff: This is a very arbitrary cutoff, but Cam has failed to top 18.6 PPG in three of four years. It makes me wonder if 2015 was the outlier. Another season in the 17-18 range and that will make my wondering harder to ignore. It is with that in mind we have seen his overall ADP fall to its lowest point since September of 2015. For my part, I’d expect to see Cam rebound from his career-worst season, but I’m not confident he will ever hit that elite 350 point mark again.
Dan: I want to tell you that his 2015 season is sustainable. I want to tell you that 2016 was an anomaly. But I also don’t want to lie to you. Newton skyrocketed up the ranks in 2015 with his massive fantasy season, and I fell for it. While I don’t think there is any question Cam is a top-five dynasty QB simply because of his sky high potential, I’m not sure we will ever see a repeat of his 2015 season. With disappointing weapons, outside of pre-bye-week Greg Olsen, Newton doesn’t have much to rely on. Carolina will need to get him some dependable weapons, and we will need to see a nice rebound before we consider moving him back to the top.
QB5 – Marcus Mariota (ADP 78)
Jeff: Mariota exploded from weeks 5-12, averaging 24.2 PPG. At a clip of 9.6 points per, the other eight games were a bit less productive. With a dash of speculation Tennessee is going to add a highly drafted pass catcher and his major late-season injury thrown in, the range out outcomes for the youngster is as vast as the gap between Michael Strahan’s teeth. It is the hope for a result at the top of that range that has him above the fast rising Derek Carr, bally-hooed Jameis Winston, and proven Matt Ryan.
Dan: This is where we start to see discrepancies in QB ranks, but for me this is the obvious choice. At just 23-years-old, and heading into his third season, Mariota has done quite a bit with very little talent on offense. Leaning on Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews isn’t quite as luxurious as it might sound (disclaimer: it’s not even remotely luxurious), but Mariota continues to improve and produce with limited surroundings. If the Titans finally pony up for some decent receiving options and the running game remains solid, we should see the continued rise of old Double M. Just to give you something to look forward to, go bask in the glory of his midseason stretch where he looked like the elite dynasty asset he’ll soon become.
QB6 – Jameis Winston (ADP 81)
Jeff: From a pure fantasy scoring perspective, Winston took a pretty big (1.2 PPG) step back this past season. But a closer look at his stats tells a different story. His completion percentage, yardage, and touchdowns were all up. The three additional INTs versus his rookie year on only 33 more attempts isn’t ideal, nor is the drop from six rushing touchdowns to one, but we should have expected that. What many of us also expect is for the 23-year-old to take a leap forward this season, especially if Tampa Bay follows through on the rumors and adds another legitimate receiving threat.
Dan: This is a weird one for me. While I don’t disagree with the ranking, I’m not sure Winston is all that great of a QB. That said, we have come to learn that being a good QB doesn’t always matter for fantasy (see: Bortles, Blake). The production is there, and he is improving, so maybe this is exactly the right spot for the former number one overall pick. Having Mike Evans to lean on is a plus, but hopefully Tampa Bay finds him some other options to help out. I have him lower, but Winston is young and productive so his dynasty value should hold strong.
QB7 – Derek Carr (ADP 83)
Jeff: It is hard not to be excited about Carr. He has steadily improved every season of his career, taking a giant leap forward in 2016, cutting his interceptions in more than half and kicking his completion percentage up 2.6% over 2015. That he is on an ascending offense with the elite prospect that is Amari Cooper makes it hard for me to see him as low as he is in ADP. I personally have him as my QB5, making him a tremendous value at this price. If you like Carr, now is the time to pull the trigger. This is probably the cheapest he will be for the next decade.
Dan: Carr was anything but disappointing in 2016, and continues to improve each year. However, he has some consistency issues. He posted eight games over 20 points (24.17 PPG), and six games under 13 points (9.62 PPG). To me, that screams boom/bust, especially considering he posted very similar production in 2015. The ceiling is solid, and it’s positive he’s usable more often than not, but his floor is relatively low and that’s tough for me to rely on. This ranking might seem a little low, but because of the inconsistency, I’m okay with him here. Let’s hope he takes another step forward in 2017.
QB8 – Matt Ryan (ADP 96)
Jeff: This is a tough one. Based on how he looked in 2016, it is hard to argue Ryan as anything other than the QB3. But as good as he was, it isn’t often a career 15.6 PPG QB with eight years of service becomes a 20 PPG guy. Perhaps Ryan has turned a corner and this isn’t all the departed Kyle Shanahan’s doing, but dynasty owners aren’t fully buying that, hence the QB8 ADP. I suspect the truth is somewhere in that 17-18 PPG range, making him a solid top-eight option and justifying his current standing.
Dan: Matty Ice was truly special in 2016, as that offense seemed unstoppable. However impressive his season was, I see it as unrepeatable. He attempted the fewest passes he has thrown in a season since 2009, yet had career highs in completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns with a 7.1 TD percentage. SEVEN POINT ONE! For reference, Rodgers was at 6.6% and Brady at 6.5%. With that being said, I do believe he was underrated in previous years and should still slot into the top 12.
QB9 – Dak Prescott (ADP 104)
Jeff: Prescott is a hard guy for me to rank. On one hand, I can’t recall ever witnessing a more impressive rookie season. His poise and decision making belies his age and experience in a way we aren’t likely to see again any time soon. On the other hand, it is just so hard to buy it at face value after what we thought he was coming in. Whether Dak’s output was the result of landing in the perfect situation, affording him an opportunity almost no other rookie signal callers get, or he really is that good, we aren’t likely to find out in 2017, as their offense remains intact. Talk about having insulated value.
Dan: If you weren’t impressed by Prescott this year, you must be an Eagles fan. The arguments against him are being an overlooked prospect, landing in the best possible spot, and having a rushing attack that kept the defense at bay. Why can’t those be the things that prop him up? His situation isn’t changing for quite some time and, as I have stated previously, you don’t have to be a great QB to be a great fantasy asset. For me, he is above average for the position. At some point, the NFL just has to take an “L” on his evaluation. For the future, I believe his passing yardage and TD production will increase, and his rushing stats should remain pretty constant with some likely TD regression. I have him at QB6, and consider him one of the safer QBs out there.
QB10 – Tom Brady (ADP 110)
Jeff: This one surprised the hell out of me. My suspicion is this is as much about lack of options as anything. The guys just below Brady are either also old (Drew Brees) or divisive (Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins). At 39, you have to think the end is somewhere in sight, even if he says he wants to play until he is 80. That is the primary reason he is my QB15. There also concerns about Rob Gronkowski’s long-term health and if the Pats will continue to pay the stud tight end if he can’t stay on the field (plus his cap numbers get pretty fat after 2017). I get the pull to put Brady in your top-10, but I just can’t get on board.
Dan: He has the rings, the fame, and perfect hair. What he doesn’t have in his corner is Father Time. This is a little high for the ultimate win-now QB, but the guy just keeps producing. He isn’t declining, as he posted the third highest TD percentage of his career, but it has to start soon, right? RIGHT?! I don’t think I can argue that his weapons will hold him back, because Brady and Belichick just keep finding ways to make average players into productive ones (not including Gronk). So all I have to go on is that he’s old, and I really don’t know how long he can keep this up. Maybe he has the fountain of youth is his backyard…
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