Summer Sleeper: San Francisco 49ers

Dan Meylor Posted On July 30, 2016

We begin our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Tyler Lockett or Carlos Hyde, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Willie Snead is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

There are a handful of sleepers on the 49ers’ roster worth considering for this series. In the backfield, Shaun Draughn isn’t very highly coveted in most dynasty leagues but proved he can be a useful fantasy tailback and is only one Carlos Hyde injury away from becoming relevant again. There are also a pair of tight ends worth thinking about as Vance McDonald finished 2015 strong with a trio of 60-plus yard, one touchdown games over the final six weeks of the season, and Blake Bell continues to learn the position after making the move from quarterback in college.

After considering all the options however, it’s another pass catcher from The Golden Gate City that has my attention this off-season.

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Bruce Ellington, WR SF

Category: Sleeper

Since being selected in the fourth round of the 2014 draft, Ellington has sat idle on the 49ers sideline for the most part – catching just 19 passes for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Although those statistics aren’t usually a sign of a breakout, there are reasons for optimism when considering Ellington.

The biggest reason for optimism is the head coach and the high paced offense he’ll play in. Ellington’s modest numbers over his first two years were posted during Jim Harbaugh’s dysfunctional final season in San Francisco, and in Jim Tomsula’s dysfunctional only season at the helm for the ‘9ers. In each of his two seasons in the NFL, and particularly last year under Tomsula, Ellington played in an offense that preferred a bit of an “old school” approach that rarely required three wide receivers – instead preferring to lineup multiple tight ends and running backs to slam the ball between the tackles and work off of play action.

Enter Chip Kelly.

Although Kelly certainly has his faults, which he proved while in Philadelphia, there are also some positives fantasy owners can take away from his time with the Eagles. For instance, Kelly’s offense featured three receivers on nearly 70% of their plays in 2015 according to Pro Football Focus. Over the last two years, Jordan Matthews manned the slot in Philly and soaked up triple digit targets in each of those seasons – catching 67 passes for 872 yards and eight touchdowns in 2104 and 85 balls for 997 yards and eight more scores in 2015.

While the talent difference between Matthews – who was selected 42nd overall in 2014 – and Ellington – who was taken 106th in the same draft – can be debated, the fact that Kelly’s offense has the potential to shine a very bright light on the slot man, is difficult to fight.

So the question at this point is whether fantasy owners should really be penciling in Ellington’s name to be the slot receiver in Kelly’s offense. That brings me to the second reason Ellington should be considered a top summer sleeper – the 49ers’ depth chart.

After sitting behind Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd and Torrey Smith over the last couple years, Ellington should be licking his chops as Smith remains as the only legitimate pass catcher on the roster. There’s also little completion for slot duties with the likes of Quinton Patton, Jerome Simpson, Eric Rodgers, DeAndrew White and Devon Cajuste battling Ellington for playing time behind Smith.

At 5’-9” and 197 pounds, Ellington is built to play in the slot. With excellent burst off the line of scrimmage, he has the ability to get defensive backs on their heels in a blink. Also displaying impressive agility and shiftiness at the top of his routes, he’s able to get separation on short to intermediate routes much like Percy Harvin did early in his career with the Vikings. Combined with excellent hands and a tough demeanor, he’s the natural choice to line up in the slot for the 49ers in 2016 and beyond.

So with such an electric skill set and opportunity for playing time at his fingertips, some may be asking why Ellington is a sleeper and off so many dynasty owners’ radars. Simply put, the 49ers are bad and fantasy players simply don’t trust anybody in San Francisco.

With the exception of Carlos Hyde, who currently has an ADP in the middle of the fifth round in dynasty startups, no 49er is being taken in the top 100 players. To take things even further, after Torrey Smith at 105, Ellington is currently being taken at 184 followed by Vance McDonald at 208.

That’s it! There are only four 49ers currently being taken in the top-250 picks of mock drafts.

Dynasty owners as a whole are a smart bunch. There are obvious reasons not the trust the 49ers offense. On top of the lack of production a year ago, there’s also a glaring hole under center with Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert fighting for the job, problems on the entire offensive line and a definite lack of playmaking ability throughout the group of skill players.

At the same time however, dynasty owners should also keep in mind that even the worst NFL offense gets production from somewhere and the 49ers will be no different. After Hyde and Smith, somebody else has to get the ball. That somebody is going to be Ellington.

So let’s recap with nine things that we know.

The 49ers are, by most accounts, going to be a poor football team and playing from behind often – which will force them to pass a lot.
Chip Kelly wants to run the most fast-paced offense in the league, and run more offensive plays than any other team in the league.
Kelly also features three wide receiver sets more than nearly any other coach in the league and has featured his slot receiver as the primary weapon in his passing game for each of his two seasons in the NFL.
Chip Kelly is the 49ers’ head coach.
The 49ers lack the playmakers as a whole that Kelly needs to be a dynamic offense and are in desperate need of an explosive receiver to play the slot.
Bruce Ellington is a speedy wide receiver with good hands and excellent burst and is already on the 49ers’ roster.
Kelly has already spoken publicly (and unprompted) about the potential Ellington has in his offense saying, “Wow – that kid can do some interesting things” according to an article in the Sacramento Bee in February.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Ellington is the ideal end of the bench sleeper for dynasty owners. With an ADP at 184, he’s extremely cheap, but he carries big upside – particularly in PPR leagues – and has the potential to gain dynasty value very quickly as training camp progresses.

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Dan Meylor

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Dan is a jack of all trades but master of none and specializes in salary cap and contract leagues.He has far too many hobbies (including writing the article you just read), is a die-hard Packers fan and can't wait to introduce his young sons to fantasy football.