FanDuel Bargains: Week Ten
Editor’s Note: We’re going to be bringing you an unprecedented amount of content this year during the season, mostly dynasty related. However, seeing the explosion of DFS games, we’ll also be ramping up our Daily coverage, similar to last season. Even if you don’t play in DFS games, these articles can help you in making lineup decisions or judge current value of your dynasty assets.
Of all the weeks on the NFL schedule, week one is perhaps the best for FanDuel players. Not only does it finally give all of us what we’ve been craving for the last seven months, but due to prices being set so long ago, it presents the best opportunity for bargain hunters to find good deals.
Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.
Keep in mind that these suggestions are made for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments with more than 50 participants where players are looking for bargains to fill out their lineups after already inserting their “studs” for the week. Many of them are risky plays and shouldn’t necessarily be considered in head-to-head or 50/50 games. Rankings courtesy of ESPN.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz, QB PHI ($6,800)
I enjoy this $6,800 price tag, and Doug Pederson’s preference to focus more on the run makes this a perfect fit for the GPP style games. More than likely they will dial back the passing game, as the Eagles have 96 passing attempts in their last two games.
Darren Sproles is getting more action in the Philadelphia offense as he fits the Eagles offensive scheme much better than Ryan Mathews, and that is proven by his 80 percent snap percentage on the field over the last couple of weeks. This should only help Wentz’s point total. Atlanta is allowing the second highest amount of receptions and yards to backs.
Wentz showcased his ability last week against the New York Giants throwing for 364-yards and against Atlanta he could continue toward that direction. The Falcons defense is worst in the league giving up 22 points to quarterbacks, and their offense pushes team to avoid the run.
The Falcons are favorites (1.0) on the road and the over/under is 50
Consider:
Case Keenum, QB STL ($6,800)
Case Keenum has kept the St. Louis Rams afloat and Jared Goff on the bench. Keenum has done the job against poor defensive teams as he has racked up a total of 617 yards and four touchdowns against both the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers. He also has thrown for 265 yards in five straight starts.
There are only five starting quarterbacks who actually fit the criteria this week. Of the bunch, I’ll give the nod to Case Keenum. The Rams are being pressured into making a move at QB, but Keenum hasn’t been that bad, especially in good matchups. In a good matchup against the Lions a few weeks back, Keenum threw for 321 yards and three TDs. Last week, he threw for 296 yards and a score against the Panthers. He’s thrown for 265+ yards in five straight starts.
The Jets defense is elite at stopping the run (fourth in rushing yards per game allowed), but struggle against the pass. They have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, which is in the bottom third of the league and give up 16.8 points a game to quarterbacks. Keenum, is averaging 14.2 points per game and should reach the Jets average if not surpass it.
The Jets are favorites (1.0) at home and the over/under is 40
Running Backs
Darren Sproles, RB PHI ($5,100)
Darren Sproles fits best with the Doug Pederson Philadelphia Eagles offense (think Jamaal Charles). Last week, he had carried the rock 13 times and finished with 57 yards and three catches for 14. Even though he drove the offense down the field he was promptly removed from any kind of goal line work.
Pederson has been honest with how he wants and who he wants running the offense. He has incorporated more of Sproles and has not lost any of his importance in the passing offense. Two weeks ago, Sproles had 15 carries for 86 yards and added five catches for 17 yards. He has played at least 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in each game.
With both a bad offense and a poor defense the Eagles should advance the ball and keep the offense going and Sproles should be a big part of that.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson called Sproles the team’s top running back Monday, saying, “I would say that Darren (Sproles) is the No. 1 back right now,” ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports. This is something that was already assumed, but now its cemented.
Falcons are 26th overall in defense and 31st against the pass. Atlanta Falcons are seventh against the rush, but Sproles is not going to carry the ball 20 times. Falcons have also allowed 71 receptions which is 31st in the league in receptions.
The Falcons are favorites (1.0) on the road and the over/under is 50
Ty Montgomery, RB GBY ($6,200)
Head coach Mike McCarthy called Ty Montgomery a three-down back Wednesday, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports. “I think you have to get past his number, No. 88,” McCarthy added. “He’s 225-pound, and he’s physical.”
Looks as though the Packers have made their decision to go with Ty Montgomery as their running back and this is something they should have done long ago. Just looking at his last three games he has averaged 14 touches and gaining 107 yards. He also has double-digit FanDuel points on each of his three games played. Montgomery has also tacked on 13 receptions (on 16 targets) for 104 yards.
The Packers will be facing the Tennessee Titans who are 16th overall defense which includes 20th against the rush and tenth against the pass. Tennessee are average against running backs catching the ball out of the backfield, allowing 39 receptions on the season (18th most in the NFL).
The Packers are favorites (2.5) on the road and the over/under is 49.5
Consider:
Tim Hightower, RB NOS ($6,200)
Tim Hightower has taken over the starting duties in the New Orleans Saints. He has had more carries in the last two games and out-snapped Mark Ingram 47-6 in week eight (Ingram fumbled), and had 102 yards in 26 carries against the Seattle Seahawks. Last week was an identical story. This time, Hightower took 24 touches into 102 total yards and a touchdown against San Francisco.
In the first half against the San Francisco 49ers, Hightower carried the ball 13 times compared to Ingram’s five. Even though the game finished with a 23 (Hightower) 15 (Ingram) game split between the two running backs, I believe it’s going to remain this way as Sean Payton has mentioned.
“You’ve covered us long enough to know that we’ll do what’s best each week to win that game,” Payton said when asked about whether he would prefer one leading man to a time share in the backfield. “And, man, it was good to see Mark run. The week before, Tim gave us a jolt. And we’ll continue to look at each game and plan accordingly.”
In other words, lean toward Ingram, but if Hightower performs well, he will get the concentrated looks. This seems how FanDuel is looking at it as they are giving Ingram the $100 weighted value. The Denver Broncos have not been the same kind of defense as they were last season. They are allowing 4.4 yards per carry (24th) and allow the ninth most FanDuel points to running backs. Just last week they allowed Latavius Murray to rush for 114 yards and three touchdowns.
The Saints are favorites (3.0) at home and the over/under is 49
Wide Receiver
Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN ($6,900)
Emmanuel Sanders continues to get the targets regardless of the poor play from Trevor Siemian. Sanders has been targeted eight times in eight of the nine games played this season and ten or more in the last two games. Siemian has made it clear he is the guy.
His touchdowns have been lacking as he has not scored since week four, but against the Saints, the regressive curve should turn around. New Orleans allow the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and have Football Outsiders’ 28th ranked pass defense. The question is how will Sanders be as he has routinely failed against the likes of the Oakland Raiders, and the San Diego Chargers twice. He did post double-digit numbers against Houston fifth ranked passing defense though. Weird.
When looking at the red zone targets, Sanders is at the top (19) and also leads the league from within the 10-yard line (13). The targets are there, but his touchdowns (3) of the 12 that the Broncos successful conversions are not. Which is interesting considering he has always been solid near the pylons.
The Saints are favorites (3.0) at home and the over/under is 49
J.J. Nelson, WR ARI ($5,600)
J.J. Nelson is making a name for himself and fantasy owners should be taking notes. At the start of the season, he was behind both John Brown and Michael Floyd. At this point, Nelson is the Cardinals legitimate number two receiver. He has out-snapped and out-targeted both of them in each of the last two games.
The good news is that his price tag has not caught up with his status or his numbers he has been producing, which gives you insurance on his floor, but he also offers a large ceiling because the Cardinals will be facing the San Francisco 49ers. Having seen 50% of the team’s red zone targets over the last two games, Nelson has a good chance to play a big role in that scoring.
Two weeks ago, Nelson was good for eight receptions on 12 targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns in a week eight loss to Carolina. This prompted Bruce Arians to name him the official number two. Even better, is that both Brown and Larry Fitzgerald are dealing with injuries. Over the last two weeks, Nelson has 19 targets.
The Cardinals are favorites (14.0) at home and the over/under 48
Tyrell Williams, WR SDC ($5,900)
Tyrell Williams has been gaining Philip Rivers’ trust as he is been getting 6.7 targets per game which is ninth in the NFL in red-zone targets. With Travis Benjamin out with a knee injury this week, the opportunities are going to open even more for the wide receiver. The Chargers are a passing offense and Rivers is going to go his direction. Look for the big-play probability out of Williams as he has 11 catches of 20 or more yards, but Sunday’s six-yard quick slant for a touchdown showed that he is a threat near the pylons as well.
This week Williams will face the Miami Dolphins defense which is allowing big points against passing offenses. They are giving up 24 points to opposing receivers which is 21st in the NFL. They have also given up nine touchdowns.
The Chargers are favorites (4.0) at home and the over/under 48.5
Consider:
Rishard Matthews WR, TEN ($5,800)
Rishard Matthews is now the new number one receiver for the Tennessee Titans. In the last two games he has ten receptions on 14 targets for 101 yards and three touchdowns. He also is leading all wideouts in snaps.
The Green Bay Packers are stout against the run (second) but they struggle against the pass (17th) and are lacklustre against fantasy points allowed. Green Bay gives up 24 points to wideouts per game which is the 24th highest in the NFL.
Matthews is not taking the league by storm, but there is value in a wide receiver that not only is the number one on the team, but is facing a defense that has trouble stopping the opposing team’s wide receiver. When you throw in his very cheap price tag it only gets better.
The Packers are also decimated in the secondary who are struggling to contain receivers like Matthews. Not the most sexy selection, but the time is right to fit him in your lineups.
The Packers are favorites (2.5) on the road and the over/under is 49.5
Tight Ends
Lance Kendricks, TE LAR ($4,500)
Lance Kendricks has been outperforming his price tag by far. In the last three games he has been averaging 9.7 targets, third highest on his team. He also has racked up seven targets to go along with five receptions in four of his last five games. He is coming off his best game of his rookie season. Case Keenum targeted him 12 times and he caught seven passes for 90 yards.
The Rams will be facing the New York Jets who allow the seventh most yards to opposing tight ends. Look for St. Louis to continue to use Kendricks and the passing game against the Jets as they will most likely be behind and will need to rely on the pass to eat up garbage time.
At only a $4,500 price tag, there is very little floor to worry about and a huge upside. Plus, most don’t look for Lance Kendricks to be prosperous as the Rams offense is not very exciting and they stick to the run.
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - October 1, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - September 24, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Two - September 17, 2017
