IDP Watch: Week One

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to monitor.

Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores – these are key indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

The goal is to largely avoid stellar IDP players since many of those individuals are already heavily in the eyes of IDP owners. Instead, here are some key trends based on week one performances:

Snap Notes

• Denzel Perryman only played 45% of the team’s snaps, sitting in favor of Manti Te’o in subpackages.
• Craig Robertson and James Laurinaitis stayed on the field in subpackages over Stephone Anthony. In fact, Anthony finished fourth among the Saints’ linebackers only playing 18% of the team’s snaps and only tallied one tackle. Michael Mauti out-snapped Anthony.
• Michael Kendricks remains in the Eagles’ staff’s doghouse playing only 37% of the team’s snaps. Jordan Hicks and Nigel Bradham are currently the Eagles’ subpackage linebackers.
• Myles Jack didn’t play a defensive snap, which was surprising considering the prior coverage struggles of Telvin Smith and Paul Posluszny.
• Shaq Thompson didn’t play in subpackages and was on the field for 31% of the team’s snaps.
• Both De’Vondre Campbell and Deion Jones played roughly 85% of the team’s week one snaps.

The Saints’ usage of Anthony is puzzling. The shift to strongisde linebacker this offseason while James Laurinaitis “firmed” up the linebacking group made some sense, but if the Saints want to improve defensively, Anthony needs to be on the field. The low snap count is concerning, but he’s a buy low target despite playing on the strongside in 2016. Robertson could be a decent stop gap if he continues to see every down snaps, but that’s a risky presumption. I wouldn’t target him unless you’re desperate for immediate production.

Denzel Perryman’s snap share is also concerning. Many tabbed him as a potential breakout, but it’s difficult to trust him against pass-heavy teams until we see whether he’ll continue to sit in favor of Manti Te’o.

Finally, Mychal Kendricks shouldn’t be considered in any lineup in any league size right now. He’s virtually useless.

News to Follow

• Coach Gus Bradley said Myles Jack didn’t play any defensive snaps week one because he’s still adjusting to the weakside linebacker role.
• The Colts’ TJ Green has a sprained MCL and is week to week. However, Clayton Geathers is beginning to practice on a limited basis and could play week two.
• Raiders’ Coach Jack Del Rio said Karl Joseph will see defensive snaps “at some point” after not playing a defensive snap in week 1.

After struggling in the preseason, Joseph began the year on the bench. Unfortunately, he has to now prove himself and climb his way back into the defensive game plan. Earlier in the offseason, the expectation was he’d start immediately and possessed a DB1 ceiling for 2016, but instead, his early season struggles have led to disappoint. Because of that, he’s now a buy low candidate. It may not be until midseason or later when Joseph sees a meaningful share of snaps, but the talent is there for the long-term.

The Myles Jack situation is interesting. The Jaguars’ staff wants him to learn both the weakside and middle linebacker positions before giving him playing time. He’s unlikely to steal Telvin Smith’s job, so it appears this is purely an effort in versatility training. Considering the coverage struggles of both Jaguar subpackage linebackers, Jack’s best path to 2016 snaps remains subpackages. It’s just a question of when.

Surprises

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• Justin March drew the start next to Derrick Johnson, as expected, but finished the week as the Chiefs’ box score hero tallying eight tackles and an assist on 56% of the team’s snaps.
• Xavier Howard started for the Dolphins week one, played 99% of the team’s snaps and finished with six tackles and five assists. He’s a top rookie corner option who will jostle for the top overall spot for the season as tackle opportunities are expected to be aplenty.
• Sio Moore appears to be over his significant hamstring injury playing 73% of the team’s snaps and finishing with 10 tackles and three assists.
• Kwon Alexander started 2016 with 15 solo tackles compared to Lavonte David’s six.

There were a number of surprises week one, but Justin March’s highly productive day on roughly half of the team’s snaps while out producing Derrick Johnson was atop my list. While extremely promising production, March’s snap percentage should give owners pause. He was productive, but still is being pulled from certain subpackages in favor of Daniel Sorensen.

The Nate Irving release makes a lot more sense after seeing Sio Moore play over 70% of the team’s snaps. It’s clear he’s healthy. He was the Colts’ best linebacker Sunday leading the team in tackles. Considering how porous the Colts defense is and how well the offense is playing, he should continue to see a very high volume of tackle opportunities. Moore started his career nicely with the Raiders, so his week one production is a great sign for the resurgence of his long-term value.

Kwon Alexander is legit. The Buccaneers’ linebacker group is tremendously athletic, but Alexander played like a man possessed shooting the gaps, shedding blocks and getting to the ball carrier early. Lavonte David will still get his share of tackles, but he and Alexander risk cannibalizing the other’s production for the foreseeable future.

Well Played

• James Bradberry of the Panthers was targeted often and looks to be a heavy favorite for the top rookie corner for the year. He finished with five tackles, an assist and a pass defended on 95% of the team’s snaps. He should continue to see a high volume of targets and snaps.
• Frank Clark played 55% of the team’s snaps and accumulated a tackle, two assists and a sack.
• Leonard Williams is beastly. He finished the week with three tackles, three assists and two and a half sacks on 93% of the team’s snaps.

Sheldon Richardson returns for the Jets in week two after serving his one week suspension, which could impact Leonard Williams’ snap share in an expected defensive end rotation. However, the Jets should also play more four-man fronts with Williams kicking inside and Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson on the outside. Regardless, Williams appears ready for a value surge. He’s an elite talent and may be considered an elite defensive end option across IDP leagues by year-end.

Frank Clark’s performance didn’t jump off the stat sheet, but he played with persistence, speed and energy in assuming much of Bruce Irvin’s subpackage snaps. There were several times he successfully pressured Ryan Tannehill with tackle-end stunts. He still is a match-up play, but he continues to improve and represents a highly valuable long-term IDP asset as a 4-3 end with a high sack ceiling.

Disappointments

• Aaron Donald put forth a terrible performance in a game many thought he’d wreak havoc. He finished with only three tackles. The good news is he isn’t expected to be suspended for his boneheaded official bump that led to Monday night’s ejection.
• Vine Curry played fewer snaps than Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin finishing with a goose egg statistically. The rotation was close to even, but Graham and Barwin played slightly more reps and each notched a sack. Curry owners don’t need to be concerned yet.
• Another goose egg, Calvin Pryor played roughly 90% of the team’s snaps and didn’t register a tackle. He left with an injury in the first, but quickly returned.
• JJ Watt played 89% of the team’s snaps and finished with just one tackle and three quarterback hits. He’s far from his typical self, but he’s still climbing back from his back injury and not quite 100% yet.

Calvin Pryor’s week one bomb shouldn’t be a cause for concern. The Jets defended the run well and rarely allowed Jeremy Hill or Giovani Bernard to get to the second level leaving Pryor little to clean up. His blitzes were also unsuccessful on the stat sheet. He should bounce back against the Bills.

Deeper Targets to Watch/Add

• Jihad Ward played 68% of the team’s snaps and finished with three assists and a fumble recovery. A quiet buzz fluttered in the preseason regarding his pass rushing ability and he’s seeing snaps immediately. With Khalil Mack outside, he could benefit from the lack of attention, especially considering his pass rushing ability. The opportunities are there and the production should soon follow.
• Vincent Valentine played about 30% of the team’s snaps as the Patriots ran a very heavy rotation on the inside of their defensive line. He finished with three tackles and a sack. A statistical line many expected from Malcom Brown. He’s raw, but he’s disrupting, so he should continue to see time as long as he continues to be effective.
• Yannick Ngakoue led the Jaguars’ defensive ends playing 80% of the team’s snaps. He only tallied a tackle and an assist, but the staff appears to like he’s development thus far as they continue to keep him on the field.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

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