Summer Sleeper: Pittsburgh Steelers

We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

• Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
• Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
• Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Tyler Lockett or Carlos Hyde, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Willie Snead is going to spring up.  Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

For a sleeper to actually make good on the hype, and become a contributing member of society (or at the least our fantasy football community) requires the confluence of many factors, not all of which are in the player’s control.

The player, of course, must perform his job at a high enough level to garner the trust of the coaching staff and his teammates. This, however, is not a prerequisite. We can all think of examples where injury to a starter forced the back-up into action, before the natural progression of his talents otherwise would have. Some guys just “luck into” a role…lack of depth, an injury in training camp- leading to increased practice reps, a suspension to the veteran ahead of them on the depth chart, and viola! A star is born.

Being in the right place, at the right time, can be just as important as being good.

This is the situation for Eli Rogers, a rookie wide receiver, from the University of Louisville, who finds himself on a Steelers roster with a wide receiving corp in transition.

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Eli Rogers , WR PIT

Category: Deep Sleeper

The illusion of Pittsburgh having a deep, or talented receiving corp beyond Antonio Brown took a hit when Martavis Bryant was dealt a year-long suspension this spring. News of Bryant’s punishment came down on March 14, 2016, two weeks after the combine had concluded.. It’s fair to assume the Steelers devoted few, if any, of their scouting resources to a position which, heading into the off-season, seemed like a relative strength of the football team. Now, six weeks before the NFL Draft, they were faced with finding a way to replace the size/speed advantage Bryant gave them on a weekly basis. With Bryant out of commission, Markus Wheaton, and Sammie Coates became the most viable options behind Antonio Brown, in the eyes many fantasy pundits.

In Wheaton, a free agent at season’s end, the team has a young player who’s situation, and game are reminiscent of former Steeler Emmanuel Sanders, whom Pittsburgh allowed to leave, via free agency, in 2014.

Like Sanders, Wheaton is a prototypical slot receiver, who saw his yards per reception increase – from 12.2 ypc in 2014, to 17 ypc in 2015- upon being moved to the slot to make room for Bryant outside. Expectations for Wheaton were high last season, as the presumptive beneficiary of defenses keying in on the devastating one-two punch of Brown and Bryant. His 44 catches for 749 yards in 2015 were a tantalizing preview of his expanding role, in what was now one of the NFL’s premiere passing games, and offenses as a whole. It remains to be seen if the Steelers take the same path with Wheaton that they took with Emanuel Sanders, choosing to let him walk away in free agency rather than committing to him via a long term.

As for Coates, ability has never been the question. His predraft workout was tremendous. At 6-foot-1, 212 pounds, he parlayed a 4.41 40-yard dash time, and 41-inch vertical, into a third-round selection by the club in last year’s draft. Yet despite his high selection, and off the chart explosiveness, he disappeared once the season began, registering just a single reception for 11 yards in seven games played during 2015.

A “body-catcher,” who at times looks like he is trying to corral a pumpkin rather than catch a football, Coates routinely allows the rock into his frame, leading to drops. Yet players grow. And to his credit, his progression from 2015 to this season has been described as “night and day” by offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Although in the team’s first preseason outing, the “drop monster” reared its ugly head again.

Coaches besieged by reporters in the August heat have a funny way of splashing hyperbole around like Gatorade. Or maybe it’s the reporters…(knowing that words of praise and dissatisfaction with a player’s performance are the most likely to generate social media buzz)…who make a coach’s compliment sound like a conviction.

In either case, dynasty owners would be wise to tread lightly with Coates, a player with a history of concentration lapses, leading to a tendency to let balls slip through his hands. Dropped passes not only rattle a receiver’s confidence, they shake the quarterback’s belief in that receiver, as well. There has been a belief that Coates has a real chance at establishing himself in this offense- a prospect that has inflated his cost on draft day. Yet as his ADP rises, so does the price of betting incorrectly on his potential coming out party.

Former first round pick Darius Heyward-Bey has managed to convince a few people he’s roster worthy, with an August ADP of roughly 234th overall. For the sake of being thorough, his name could be listed as a possible option to provide Pittsburgh the deep threat it lost when Bryant was suspended. I’ll place the odds of this happening on par with the odds of Earth being invaded by a race of half shark-alligator-half humanoid beings armed with laser cannons. It’s probably not gonna happen, but “theoretically”… anything’s possible.

This is where Eli Rogers enters our story…

Given:

1. The likelihood of Wheaton’s departure at season’s end.
2. The uncertainty surrounding Coates’ development.
3. The lingering questions about Bryant’s commitment to the game.
4. Pittsburgh’s desire to find a viable return man, and limit Antonio Brown’s exposure to injury in the kicking game.

A window of opportunity has opened for Rogers to play his way onto the game day roster. Dynasty owners could unearth a gem in this sophomore receiver at next to no cost, or risk.

At the University of Louisville, Rogers had a relatively quiet college career, averaging 44 catches for 505 yards over his four seasons with the Cardinals. Many of his 176 collegiate receptions were delivered by then Louisville quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater. The 11.5 yards he averaged per catch point to his ability as an even handed chain mover, not a game breaker. In PPR formats, this is enough to warrant occasional use in the FLEX.

While the most prominent wide receiver to come out of Louisville in recent memory, Devante Parker, has struggled to create a tangible buzz in Miami, both Rogers 2015, and 2016 training camps have placed him in the conversation of players who could have an impact on the upcoming season.

In 2015 he was already catching the eye of Ben Roethlisberger with his effort and ability in practice. He managed to work his way up the depth chart, and was actually taking first team reps last season, before a foot injury derailed his rookie hopes. He spent the season on IR, returning this year to pick up where he left off, back practicing with the first team.

Haley has not been shy in his praise of Rogers, stating in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, “He’s unique,”…”Most of the college guys we get are outside receivers in college, and then you’re trying to convert them. Well, he played inside a bunch, so he’s got a very good feel already. He’s ahead of the game and he’s lightening quick.”

Haley even went so far as to compare him to Wayne Chrebet, high praise for any slot receiver.

Haley’s next comments, from the same Ed Bouchette article, give an even more revealing indication of how he views the Steelers pecking order at wideout. If you read between the lines, you’ll notice a glaring omission between the two comments.

When speaking of Wheaton’s role, Haley says, “I told Markus in the offseason I didn’t want to pigeon-hole him because he might be our second best outside guy.”…”We know what he does inside, it’s very good and we can win with him, but we may need him outside.”

Understanding that the Steelers likely knew of Bryant’s impending suspension long before the general public, it’s telling that Haley has had designs on moving Wheaton outside for some time. Absent from these two assessments is any mention of Coates, a player with an eighth round ADP at 95th overall, WR54, while Rogers has yet to break into the lexicon of draftable assets in any format of fantasy football.

This, when speaking of Rogers, is what we call value. For those who appear to be over drafting Coates based on the coordinators declaration of a clear, and prominent role for Rogers in the Steelers potent passing attack should be taken as a warning to correct their course. Whether Rogers supplants Coates as the teams third wide receiver, or the two have a relatively equal number of snaps, the fact remains Rogers has made his case for playing time, and that time will come at Coates expense. All that’s left to be determined is to what extent.

Another significant reason Rogers will make the 53-man roster is the Steelers desire to relieve Brown of his duty as the team’s chief return specialist, and ensure his health and longevity. The Steelers are currently holding an open competition for the return job, with Rogers, and Levi Norwood going head to head for the spot. Barring injury, there is no doubt that Rogers will earn himself a hat and a spot, not just on the 53-man roster, but the 46-man game day depth chart as well.

With a role in one of the NFL’s premier offenses ,Eli Rogers is a player dynasty owners need to keep tabs on this preseason. Look toward his snap count, and target share as an indication of how much trust he has fostered between himself and Roethlisberger. It should probably surprise none of us if Rogers emerges ahead of Coates, and Heyward-Bey in the pecking order of Steelers receivers. In the event of a injury to Brown or Wheaton, Rogers could see his value soar even further. This is a player who deserves your attention.

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