Instant Analysis: Miami Vice

Mo Brewington Posted On July 19, 2016

The wait is over. The Dolphins have thrown a lifeline to dynasty owners like myself, who sat by faithfully, knowing that one of the best dual threat runners of the last 10 years would find a home for the 2016 season. Our prayers have been answered. Arian Foster is now a Dolphin. Whether it was the best possible situation remains to be seen. The running back outlook in Miami which, as of this morning, was as murky as a South Florida swamp, just got stirred up a bit more. Now it’s up to us to wade through waters, and project a safe course of action for our franchises.

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Early reports indicate that Foster signed a one-year pact with the team, for approximately $1.5 million dollars, with the possibility to earn close to $3.5 Million with incentives, and minimal guarantees. For dynasty purposes, that tells you this is a deal Miami can walk away from with little, to no salary implications should Foster under-perform, or have any lingering effects from the Achilles injury suffered last season. A commitment in the form of a large signing bonus would have instilled a greater sense of security for owners weighing the risk versus reward of adding the former All-Pro, but no such assurance was offered.

The most exciting aspect of the acquisition could be the pairing of Foster with new Dolphin’s Head Coach, Adam Gase. As the offensive coordinator of both the Broncos, and later the Bears, Gase shepherded the likes of Knowshon Moreno, and Matt Forte, (two backs with skill sets in the same mold as Foster’s), to strong fantasy campaigns. The 2013 effort by Moreno is a best case scenario for owners looking to capitalize on what’s sure to be a discounted ADP for Foster. We all remember the year Moreno shocked the world, laying down 1,038 yards on the ground, with 60 receptions for an additional 548 receiving yards, en route to 13 total touchdowns. The remarkable aspect of this feat is the fact he was written off by most of the fantasy world as a player who couldn’t stay healthy. For evidence, look no further than the “who’s who” of fantasy has beens from that year, with ADPs significantly higher than his, David Wilson, Vick Ballard, and Mikel Leshoure to name a few.

(***NOTE*** Knowshon Moreno would go on to leave Denver the following year and sign with the Dolphins, only to get injured three weeks into his first season with the team….Omen?)

While Foster will certainly rise from his current position of RB53 in DLF’s July Dynasty rankings, don’t expect him to vault back up to first-round perch we are accustomed to finding him in this time of year. It will be interesting to see how he stacks up to his number one competitor for the rock in Miami, Jay Ajayi, currently RB23, as we enter the preseason. Another player with the black cloud of durability raining on his potential outlook, Ajayi has been the favorite to win the starting gig, despite posting a meager 49/187/1 rushing output in limited action last season. A knee injury suffered in 2011 left his knee in a condition described by one NFL draft guru as “Bone-on-Bone.” The specter of unavoidable debilitation has followed the second year back since the run-up to the 2015 NFL Draft.

Rookie Kenyon Drake is the wild card, in what looks even more like a RBBC approach, than it did before the Foster signing. The third rounder out of Alabama had his own battles with bone breaks and fractures, before teaming with Derrick Henry to help the Tide win the 2015 National Title. His explosiveness was on display at the Combine, as Drake posted the best scores among all backs in the 40-yard dash, broad jump, and 3-cone drill. With better than adequate hands, and a slashing running style, he could end up as the real threat to Foster’s playing time, particularly on pass downs. Look to Gase’s use of Jeremy Langford last season as an indication that the coach has no aversion to throwing a rookie like Drake into the game plan. As is the case with all young backs, how well Drake handles protection assignments will play a large roll in how early and often he hits the field.

For the 29-year-old Foster to re-establish himself as an elite NFL runner, there are many pieces that will have to fall into place. Miami’s offensive line will have to be consistently better. The addition of Laremy Tunsil, who appears to be headed for a debut at one of the guard spots, to a group with veterans Mike Pouncy and Brandon Albert could go a long way toward that end. An improved air attack led by Ryan Tannehill would do wonders to keep defenses honest, and open running lanes.

Ultimately, it will boil down to what it always has with Arian Foster: his health. Watch him closely in the preseason. While it’s likely he won’t see much action, one hopes to get a meaningful series, or two out of him per contest to gauge his explosion and agility. If this happens, the price will begin climb. He’s not a player I’m willing to draft as one of my top two running backs. If he remains on the board while I’m looking for my third through fifth runners, his track record alone makes him a worthy roll of the dice. Even at 80-85 percent of his former self , I think he’s RB24 or better. That alone makes him worthwhile.

Your optimism should remain tempered however. Aside from the younger backs looking to make a name, the recovery from an Achilles injury can be a lingering one. It’s possible Foster still needs time to regain his comfort level. It should shock no one if he looks like a shell of his previous self in the early going. Rather than writing him off, keep him on your watch list, and look for signs of him rounding into form as the weeks progress.

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