Thomas Rawls and the Five “Buts”

Matt Price Posted On June 2, 2016

This is all your fault, David Johnson.

If it wasn’t for Johnson’s wide receiver-turned-running back success story, which resulted in a pre-NFL Draft consensus ranking as the third most valuable running back in dynasty fantasy football, I never would have had the opportunity to see CJ Prosise get drafted at 1.06 in a recent rookie draft. The excited owner even exclaimed, “Happy to own the next David Johnson!” as he giddily made his selection. In my opinion, that is quite a leap of faith for a player who has been playing the position for just one season and still has quite a bit to learn before becoming a starting NFL running back.

David Johnson’s ADP last off-season was in the middle of the second round of rookie drafts, making him a much cheaper investment than Prosise. More importantly, though, is the situation difference. David Johnson went to a team where his only competition was a 62-year-old Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington, who I thought was maybe really good at one point, but who can’t stay healthy long enough to show it. Prosise is going to a situation where the player in front of him did something his rookie season only a handful of players in NFL history have done – Thomas Rawls rushed for 5.6 yards per carry on 147 attempts in 2016. Only five other players in NFL history have averaged better than 5.5 ypc on 125 or more rushing attempts. Those players are Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Franco Harris, Cam Newton, and Clinton Portis. ^[1] That’s some pretty elite company to be in for a UDFA. Rawls also led the league in yards after contact per rush with 2.68. However, the love for Thomas Rawls has started to die down for a few different reasons over the past couple of months.

Let’s take a look at some of the “buts” people are using as reasons to avoid Rawls, starting with the aforementioned UDFA tag.

…but he is an undrafted free agent

For some reason, this is one of the main arguments often used by Prosise truthers when arguing why they don’t see Rawls as an obstacle to the golden-domer’s ascension to elite fantasy status. I realize that in general, players with higher draft stock have longer leashes and get more chances than players who do not, but the dynasty community overstates that importance when it comes to relating it to how NFL teams see those players who go undrafted. In the NFL (especially at the running back position), the talent gap between a stud and a street free agent is very small. Once a UDFA has shown they are good NFL players, I don’t think teams care nearly as much as fantasy owners do about the fact that they were a UDFA at one point. See running backs like CJ Anderson, Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, and Fred Jackson as examples.

…but the Seahawks drafted three running backs

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This argument is often used to show the team must not believe in Rawls. I’d argue it was about adding depth to a depleted position group more so than it was about any negative feelings the team has about him. Fred Jackson is 35 years old and it doesn’t appear the team is interested in re-signing him. In 2015, Christine Michael was traded to Dallas for a case of Russell Wilson’s miracle water. Wilson must not have given him a whole bottle before leaving town, because, despite landing on the team with the best offensive line in football, he was cut shortly after arriving. Before getting back to Seattle, Michael was also signed and cut by Washington. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the positional group which has been the face of the Seahawks offense for the last four seasons needed some attention. Head Coach Pete Carroll has always fostered open competition and while I have no doubt that Prosise will impress enough to carve out weekly opportunities, I also have no doubt Rawls will outplay Prosise and every other back currently on the roster in an open competition for the feature back role.

…but his ankle injury is more serious than we thought

As usual, people are reading too much into coachspeak and “news” during the post-draft lull. Recently, Carroll said he “hopes” Rawls is ready for week one. Fantasy owners are worried about that one word far too much in my opinion. Let’s take a step back and look at this injury for what it really is.

Thomas Rawls fractured his ankle against the Ravens on December 13th, 2015
The fractured ankle was not considered serious enough to require surgery
Rawls was cleared to resume running in April.
By the time training camp starts on July 31st, it will have been nearly eight months since the injury and four months since he was cleared to run

I’m certainly no doctor, but eight to nine months seems like plenty of time for Rawls to approach full strength after an injury that did not require surgery.

…but his offensive line is terrible

Yes, it’s pretty bad. It was pretty horrible in 2015 saw well and we have already discussed how good Rawls was in his rookie season behind them. Dissenters point to the loss of Russell Okung as another reason Rawls is a player to avoid, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked tackle in the league. He was also a much more effective pass blocker (4.9 PFF rating) than a run blocker (-8.5 rating PFF grade). The Seahawks run blocking will likely be worse than they were with Okung, but it won’t be significantly worse. Honestly, it might be even better with 2016 first round pick Germain Ifedi. Lance Zierlein, one of the best offensive line analysts there is, says Ifedi has the ability to blow defenders out of the hole and possesses the athleticism to be a successful second level blocker.

…but C.J. Prosise is the GOAT

Prosise is an athletic and dynamic playmaker, but let’s be real here. He has just one season as a running back, only 167 total career carries and missed part or all of the last few games with multiple injuries. He is also a major liability in pass protection. Prosise fails to generate much punch and routinely gets pushed backward by pass rushers. Those players are bigger, faster and stronger in the NFL so if it was an issue in college, it will be an issue in the NFL. The combination of poor offensive line play and a receiving back that can’t pass protect is bad news for Russell Wilson. Seattle relies on Wilson’s feet to get himself out of trouble most of the time, but why put him at more risk than he needs to be? My guess is Seattle uses him as a receiver much more than as a runner. Pete Carroll loves his toys and Prosise is certainly that. The way Prosise will be used is unlikely to prevent Rawls from getting 200+ carries this season.

Watch the games

If you still aren’t convinced, I suggest you refresh your memory on how good Rawls looked on the field his rookie season. I’ll include a highlight clip here but if you have Gamepass or another way to watch full games then watch those too.

I didn’t address the argument against his lack of PPR upside because he has never received a large volume of targets in the passing game, but I’d like to point you to his reception at the 00:38 mark in that video when he makes a nice catch on a bad pass over his head and then takes it for the first down. In the very next play on that clip, Rawls makes another catch and takes it 29 yards for a touchdown. Just because he hasn’t been used heavily in the passing game doesn’t mean he can’t do it.

Buy Thomas Rawls

The dark cloud surrounding Thomas Rawls is currently providing a great buy low opportunity. His ADP fell 18 spots from 40th overall (RB7) in April to 58th overall (RB13) in May. If you own an RB-needy team, (don’t we all?) you could do worse than sending a late first to acquire him.

^{^[1]} Thanks to Sigmund Bloom of Footballguys for this list on an episode of The Audible.

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Matt Price

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Senior writer and co-host of the DLF Dynasty podcast, the longest running dynasty focused podcast on the planet

Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.

Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.