Editors note: DLF writers Nick Whalen and Nathan Powell debate which is more valuable, draft picks this year, or next. First up, Nick Whalen makes the case for the future.
Fresh after the combine results for offensive skill players rolled in, I always want to analyze “What does this mean for my dynasty teams?” As a film guy, I don’t take grown men running around in spandex as a big part of my evaluation. However, I can’t ignore the numerous others who do care about those numbers and drills. Therefore, I need to look at the numbers and what they mean for the class.
What did the 2016 combine tell us about this rookie class?
I was already pretty down on this class based on tape. Leading up to the combine, the whispers said “This class isn’t as bad as many lead on.” Well the combine took the wind out of the sails of this rookie class. Not many players ran fast or tested well overall. Which zaps the quality and depth out of this class.
PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP REQUIRED
If you are a premium subscriber, logged in and you are seeing this message, please let us know
by contacting us through our Contact Us page to open a help desk support ticket.
Please allow up to 24 hours for resolution.
Gain Instant Access to this article and much more.
Join DLF with a Monthly Subscription or Annual Membership.
Or, open a DraftKings account for only $10 and receive a full year DLF PREMIUM FOR FREE!
Join DLF PremiumAlready a DLF Premium Member?
Log in now
Want more info about DLF Premium?
Find out more
Nick Whalen
Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
Latest posts by Nick Whalen (see all)
- Dynasty Capsule: Chicago Bears - February 1, 2017
- Dynasty 101: Trading - September 5, 2016
- Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - August 19, 2016
Will
March 2, 2016 at 11:31 am
So I am sitting at a 1.01 with a team that needs RB help more then WR, (just Karlos at rb) would you entertain offers to stock up on 2017 picks?
I figure to have a top 5 pick next year as well
Bryan
March 2, 2016 at 12:43 pm
I’d see what I can net for the pick- maybe someone will part with a lower tier RB and a 2nd or 2017 pick as a sweetener. Who knows, ask for Gurley and see what happens. I’d see who can offer me a haul and assess from there. If you don’t see yourself contending this year regardless, you should still have a shot at Chubb or Cook next year.
Nick Whalen
March 3, 2016 at 5:06 am
Will,
It would depend on the offer. I don’t think i’d flip the 1.01 in 2016 for a future 1st. However, if you could move the 1.01 in 2016 for the 1.03 + 2017 1st, I would do that for example. If you’re not contending this year, I would sell off parts to obtain picks next year for sure!
Will
March 3, 2016 at 8:04 am
Thanks Nick!
stoney curtis
March 2, 2016 at 11:52 am
Use your 1.01 pick on Elliott. Also, contact the Philly D.A. and lobby for formal charges against L.McCoy
Alden
March 2, 2016 at 10:23 pm
I agree Elliott is worth the pick this year at 1.1, if you have a 9 or ten pick in the years 1st rnd draft, then trading forward is a good option depending on is your team winning now or rebuilding.
Ryan O
March 2, 2016 at 7:17 pm
By this logic, couldn’t you just say that the sophomore value of the better class is 2017 is going to be more valuable than the sophomore value of the class of 2016?
If Gurley was worth 2ish firsts when he was drafted, and is now worth 3, and Chubb/Fournette could be as good/better, then selling now for 2017 picks could get you the same, or better, return right?
Nick Whalen
March 3, 2016 at 5:09 am
You’re correct Ryan O. However, it’s not just the sophomores that make the 2017 class good. Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Corey Clement, Elijah McGuire, Evan Engram, OJ Howard, Bucky Hodges, Jake Butt are all Juniors that went back to school.
I agree that the value of 2017 picks will only continue to rise.
sms
March 2, 2016 at 8:57 pm
I think selling 2016 for 2017 could be a good idea. I’m trying to do it with my two 2016 first rounders. The key is that I’m in a 16 team league and my highest of the two 2016 first round picks is 1.13, the other is 1.15. I’m trying to flip them for 2017 first round picks from teams who are far from contending, so what I get in return will be within the top 6-8 picks the next year.
Nick Whalen
March 3, 2016 at 5:20 am
Sms,
Love this strategy! This is exactly what i’ve done thus far this year. I moved a 1.10 + small parts to a weak team for a 2017 1st. I wouldn’t be afraid to toss in low end players, 3rd round picks, etc to put someone over the top to move 2017 picks.
Ryan
March 3, 2016 at 5:26 am
This is a very interesting read. I haven’t studied up much on the classes yet but starting. I need RB/WR help as I have Allen/Lewis/Riddick and Evans/J.Brown/Evans.. I have the 1.01, 1.02, 1.11, 2.01 picks. I agree with you to wait till rookie fever kicks in and try to deal the 1.02/1.11 picks for next year.. but might try to trade away the top two if the return is greater. I like having the top picks, but also like trading for someone wanting to overpay.
Dan
March 3, 2016 at 8:02 am
This just affirms what I already felt and believed. Here is my conundrum.
I have the 1.05 and 1.09 in a 10 team lg. The nuance is we are starting ONE devy slot to draft this year. Was going to use the 1.05 for Chubb, but thought that despite up to 10 DEVY players from 2017 class being drafted, would still be worthwhile to trade out of 1.09 and into 2017. Hopeful Corey Davis, Courtland Sutton etc would still be draft eligible in my rookie draft in 2017.
With the devaluing of 2017 picks with top 10 prospects at this time off board, do you still subscribe to trading out for next year? Thanks.
Also, anyone who is seriously into dynasty should get the DEVY report Nick put together. It only costs a cup of Starbucks, $5 and is a great prep on who to watch this year and who to grab in DEVY leagues now.
Nick Whalen
March 3, 2016 at 9:39 am
Dan,
I would definitely draft Chubb at 1.05. I’m afraid Corey Davis will likely be one of the top 10 devys selected and I’d snag him at 1.09 if you could as well.
Thank you for the support on my Devy Report. It feels great to know people really appreciate it.
Ben
March 3, 2016 at 9:42 am
At this point, with nearly all dynasty sites giving the same message to sell of 2016 for 2017, there is bound to be an overvaluation of 2017 picks. In most of my leagues, where the members joined from the DLF forums, you can’t trade a 1st and a 2nd this year for a 1st next year. Just like the stock market there is a tipping point in value where you should hold the 2016, hope your player increases in value then decide to flip or not based on the sophomore value increase.
Ultimately it isn’t a secret strategy, or helpful, if everyone is in on it. The best advice to be taken at this point is to hold on to your 2017 picks unless someone is willing to overpay based on your team needs (contending vs. not contending).
Aeden
March 3, 2016 at 12:08 pm
I completely agree with Ben here. In all of my dynasty leagues I cannot get anyone to come close to accepting an offer of a mid 2016 1st for a random 2017 first, its just not happening and everyone is keen on the 2017 class.
I see people saying trade the 2016 1.01 to move back a few spots and grab an additional 2017 first, I just don’t see this happening in any of the 6 leagues I am in.
Stephen
March 3, 2016 at 11:55 am
Started my first dynasty leagues last summer. One locked out access to ’17 first rounders to deal, but in the other I did have access. I ended up orchestrating trade creeps with the start up drafts largely to push down my 1/2 turn pick into an area where I could justify taking Gurley and pick up multiple ’17’s for my trouble. By the end of the draft I’d moved out of round 1, traded down in round 3, and traded up in round 4 and picked up two ’17’s. Immediately after the season I also worked the league trying to pick up more, making one poor trade in terms of value (my current first rounder, for his ’17 first rounder, and ’16 third rounder), and one solid one (my ’16 2.12, and 2018 1st and 2nd rounders for his 2016 4.10, his 2017 1st rounder, and his 2018 third rounder.
As a result now I own 5 2017 first rounders in that league, nobody else has more than 2. Three of the five teams finished in the bottom 6 this year, a 4th made the semi-finals, and the 5th won the league this year.
All the moves were built around the idea of constructing a team with strong young players with upside, solid value picks (Dalton in the 20th, Eifert in the 9th), and a massive collection of ’17 first rounders.
My reasoning was fairly straight forward, based on what I saw of the ’16 class, I felt it was one of the worst drafts for playmakers this decade. I saw two players that I gave better than a coin flips shot of being legit tier 1 options at their positions, the rest of the guys I was skeptical of them even reaching tier 3 status for the most part. The ’17 class meanwhile was loaded, even before so many guys went back to school. Can their be attrition? Absolutely, just look at the QB prospects for the ’13 class, The Tyler’s (Bray and Wilson), Aaron Murray, Landry Jones and friends were all supposed to go top 10-20 overall, and none went until day 3 if that. There’s definite volatility, but traditionally that value volatility is much more closely related to QB’s than it is to playmaking WR’s and RB’s. There are cases like Alshon Jeffrey (got fat and slower) or Keenan Allen (got hurt his last year at Cal, was a five star stud recruit that everyone slept on in fantasy and the NFL alike) where a player projected to go top 5, drops like a rock, but it’s relatively infrequent compared to QB’s.
To me it was fairly simple. I don’t anticipate the vast bulk of the ’16’s to be difference makers AND just as importantly, I think it could be virtually any one of them that proves me wrong, it will be largely random and totally unpredictable, like Jeff Blake going from East Carolina to a starting gig with Cinci 20 years ago, and I don’t think I’ll be any better than anyone else at figuring out what random prospects in this draft beyond the one certainity (Zeke) prove to actually be legit options. So trading down and out (2 3rd rounders, 2 4th rounders), and bulking up on what I consider an absolutely stacked draft made absolute sense to me.
If you don’t have a top 2-3 pick, I don’t see any point in staying put, trade out for ’17’s and dart throws in round 2 and later. This draft will be disappointing, the ’17 will be HUGE.
Psycho Dad
March 3, 2016 at 12:04 pm
I’ve had a trade posted on our league trading block since 2/13. Two 2016 second rounders 2.05 & 2.07 for a 2017 first round; no takers yet. Last weekend ran into a trade my 2016 1.01 ( would have picked Treadwell) for the 1.07 2016 and a 2017 second. Have 5 of the first 21 picks for 2016 and plan on taking all WR; any thoughts ?
Stephen
March 3, 2016 at 1:46 pm
I can’t see anyone wanting to deal a ’17 first for two mid-2nd’s in a largely bad draft (’16). Really fool hardy to me, although I will admit, if nothing else, this draft seems rather deep in WR’s likely to be selected between around the mid-2nd round, and the end of the 4th/early 5th round, but they are all roll of the dice types to me, none of them are guys I’d be confident in.
Honestly, if I were you I’d be dealing as many picks out of the top 6 in ’16 as possible for ’17 picks. Build an armory of picks to be able to allow for flexibility in the ’17 draft and/or in package deals of a player and picks for picks (or players for that matter).
I think it’s worthwhile to have an extra pick or two in rounds 2,3 and 4 this year just for some extra dart throws because I think quantity will be more helpful than having a particulary high pick once you reach say, slot 7 and beyond basically. 5 of the first 21 picks? The difficulty there to me seems to be that after Zeke, there are no players that look definitively like they’ll be studs as pro’s, and after Treadwell, and Doctson (and Coleman to some), it’s really a situation where you’re much more likely to land a bust that will be bench fodder and then cut, then actual help which is why I’d deal out in as much as possible. If I could deal 3 of those picks for say a 17 #1, and a 17 #2, I’d do it, and then trade down with the other picks to try to add multiple dart throws, something of that sort.
That’s just me though. Damn fine job collecting so much ammo, if nothing else, you’ll have a lot of flexibility in a very difficult draft.
Isaac
March 6, 2016 at 8:27 am
I had 3 first round picks this year, i am keeping the 1.2 and i traded the 1.10 for a 1st next year, and i traded the 1.12 for Latavius Murray.
Think i did ok?