Editors note: DLF writers Nick Whalen and Nathan Powell debate which is more valuable, draft picks this year, or next. First up, Nick Whalen makes the case for the future.
Fresh after the combine results for offensive skill players rolled in, I always want to analyze “What does this mean for my dynasty teams?” As a film guy, I don’t take grown men running around in spandex as a big part of my evaluation. However, I can’t ignore the numerous others who do care about those numbers and drills. Therefore, I need to look at the numbers and what they mean for the class.
What did the 2016 combine tell us about this rookie class?
I was already pretty down on this class based on tape. Leading up to the combine, the whispers said “This class isn’t as bad as many lead on.” Well the combine took the wind out of the sails of this rookie class. Not many players ran fast or tested well overall. Which zaps the quality and depth out of this class.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
The worst part of the 2016 class is the headliners didn’t test well at all.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State) turned in an impressive 4.47 40-yard dash, which is very good for his size. However, he only got 9-foot-10 in the broad jump and 32.5 inches in the vertical jump. For comparison, Montee Ball produced only a 9-foot-10 broad jump and 32 inch vertical jump. Laquon Treadwell (WR Ole Miss) produced only a 9-foot-9 broad jump and 33 inch vertical are well below average. Many suspect his 40-yard dash time will be subpar at his Pro Day as well. Tyler Boyd (WR Pittsburgh) validated what I saw on film, he’s a subpar athlete. Michael Thomas (WR Ohio State) turned in a 4.57 40 yard dash and looked really bad through the gauntlet drills. I only saw three prospects of the somewhat highly regarded prospects produce good combine results: Josh Doctson (WR TCU), Derrick Henry (RB Alabama), and Sterling Shepard (WR Oklahoma).
The combine drained the last traces of excitement I had for the rookie class of 2016. Therefore, I’m moving onto the 2017 rookie class. Why? It’s going to be epic! Seriously, this isn’t a story about how the grass is greener on the other side. Instead, I’m telling you the grass you’re standing on is brown and dead. But the grass on the other side of the fence is the most vibrant green you’re ever seen. If you want to keep chewing your cud of brown grass, no need to keep reading. However, if you want to win your dynasty league, let’s do some fence hopping!
The 2017 rookie class is better than the 2016 class in every way.
QB: We don’t focus on the quarterback position much in dynasty football. However, DeShaun Watson (Clemson) is better than every QB in the 2016 draft class. If you watched the National Championship game, you saw a very talented player step up in the biggest game of his life without two of his top three targets.
RB: If you thought the 2015 class was amazing at RB, just wait until 2017. I would argue Nick Chubb (Georgia) is better than Todd Gurley and both had a knee injury in college. Leonard Fournette (LSU) and Dalvin Cook (Florida State) are on the same level, if not better than Ezekiel Elliott, who is the top RB in the 2016 class. Christian McCaffrey (Stanford), Corey Clement (Wisconsin), Wayne Gallman (Clemson), Jalen Hurd (Tennessee), and Samaje Perine (Oklahoma), and James Conner (Pittsburgh) are all on the same level as Derrick Henry, the consensus RB2 in the 2016 class. The next set of 5-10 guys are all in the running with the rest of the RB’s in the 2016 class. The amount of top end talent and depth in the 2017 class is amazing. It will likely rival the 2008 RB class which had Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte, and Jonathan Stewart.
WR: If you’re new to me than you don’t know my love for Corey Davis (Western Michigan). He decided to go back to college for his senior season, don’t worry I had a good shower cry or ten over his decision. But it meant he was added to the 2017 class. Davis was my No. 1 WR if he declared for the draft. I would argue that the next four WRs in the 2017 class are on the same level as Laquon Treadwell or Josh Doctson, whomever is the consensus WR1 in the 2016 class now. Juju Smith-Schuster (USC), Courtland Sutton (SMU) (my next man crush), Mike Williams (Clemson), and Malachi Dupre (LSU).
TE: If you play in a TE premium scoring league, I would stock up on picks in 2017. I see five players I would take over any TE in the 2016 class. The 2017 class has a great move TE in Evan Engram (Ole Miss) and some huge players in OJ Howard (Alabama), Mark Andrews (Oklahoma), Bucky Hodges (Virginia Tech), and Jake Butt (Michigan). I haven’t seen this much talent at the TE position in a single class maybe ever.
If only one or two of the positions were better than the 2016 class, I could see the hesitation. However, every single position group is better and it’s not really close. I could easily see a 2017 second-round pick being worth close to a middle to late 2016 first-round pick this time next year, which sounds ridiculous. But when you start counting the number of talented players next year versus this year it’s tough to argue. I wouldn’t walk or run to trade 2016 draft picks for 2017 picks, I would be sprinting.
Could injuries or suspensions happen? Sure. Could players not develop? Sure. However, the 2017 class will have even more players develop out of nowhere like every class does. So the quality and depth will likely make it the best class ever! No I’m not exaggerating and have already moved 2016 1st round picks for 2017 1sts. I’m willing to wait one year because dynasty is a long-term game.
Next, Nathan Powell tells you why you should hang on to those 2016 picks.
About a year ago, Nick Whalen and I were discussing the concept of how to value draft classes based on the perception of strengths, weaknesses at positions and overall as a class. We were going to write this article a year ago but we forgot, Nathan apologizes from the bottom of his heart. Anyways, what jogged my memory of the idea was seeing Nick endorsing selling 2016 rookie draft picks for 2017 rookie draft picks. So, the two sides of this debate are should we value certain classes differently based on perception of how good or bad they will be. Nick went in-depth on the players involved the two classes, but I’m more focused on the overall strategy of trading picks between the two classes.
For me, I think that all draft picks should be relatively worth the same outside of a time/waiting discount. Many people think that the 2016 rookie draft class isn’t as deep as some recent years or even future years, so they are looking to deal those picks. I think that could end up being a mistake. Are there draft classes that are better than others? Yes, absolutely, but I don’t think that is as predictable as we might think. Injuries, arrests, suspensions, decline in play and players staying in school are all factors that can turn a class that looks loaded into a run-of-the-mill average class just 12 months later. At this point in the process, after combine and before the NFL draft, I would take the 2016 1.01 over the 2017 1.01 and the 2016 1.12 over the 2017 1.12. That doesn’t have much to do with my opinion on the players that will be selected at those spots, mostly because at this moment, they aren’t players, they are picks.
The only thing bigger than rookie fever every offseason is sophomore fever. Most rookies hold their value for at least the first 12 months of their career, and of course those who excel in their rookie season can have huge gains in value. This can create a very nice sell window for these players. In 2014, Gio Bernard and Eddie Lacy were vaulted into the top 5 of dynasty running backs after solid rookie seasons and Christine Michael was being drafted as a top 15 dynasty running back despite doing nothing in his rookie season. In 2015, Jeremy Hill, Isaiah Crowell and almost all of the 2014 wide receiver rookie class all saw huge gains in value. In 2016, Thomas Rawls, Matt Jones, Stefon Diggs, Karlos Williams, Jeremy Langford, Javorius Allen have all seen huge boosts in value and can be sold for much more than the capital that was spent on them. Essentially, by selling current year picks you are forfeiting the possibility of seeing a huge value gain in the next 12 months. Sure, 2017 picks will be more valuable on the trade market this time next year than they are right now, but a late 1st will still be worth a late 1st, a 2nd will be worth a 2nd and so on and so forth. A late 1st in this years draft could possibly become worth an early 1st or multiple 1sts, and a 2nd in this class could possibly be worth a 1st by the time 2017 rookie drafts roll around.
The 2017 class has reached a point of mythical proportions. The “next year is better” narrative is as old as time, but it seems that has become nearly the consensus this year. Am I excited about players like Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette and JuJu Smith-Schuster? Absolutely. But with all of the things that can happen between now and the 2017 draft, I am going to fall short of valuing the class as some sort of “super class” and run to deal my 2016 picks which some people may be souring on now, but I am confident rookie fever will continue to heighten all the way up to the day of rookie drafts, and even then, I will not be trading back a year with a pick just because of the perception of the two classes. The players you will be taking with those 2016 picks are still likely to increase in value throughout their rookie season and could have a much higher value than what you’d get by waiting and chasing the 2017 class.
[/am4show]
Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
- Dynasty Capsule: Chicago Bears - February 1, 2017
- Dynasty 101: Trading - September 5, 2016
- Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - August 19, 2016
So I am sitting at a 1.01 with a team that needs RB help more then WR, (just Karlos at rb) would you entertain offers to stock up on 2017 picks?
I figure to have a top 5 pick next year as well
I’d see what I can net for the pick- maybe someone will part with a lower tier RB and a 2nd or 2017 pick as a sweetener. Who knows, ask for Gurley and see what happens. I’d see who can offer me a haul and assess from there. If you don’t see yourself contending this year regardless, you should still have a shot at Chubb or Cook next year.
Will,
It would depend on the offer. I don’t think i’d flip the 1.01 in 2016 for a future 1st. However, if you could move the 1.01 in 2016 for the 1.03 + 2017 1st, I would do that for example. If you’re not contending this year, I would sell off parts to obtain picks next year for sure!
Use your 1.01 pick on Elliott. Also, contact the Philly D.A. and lobby for formal charges against L.McCoy
I agree Elliott is worth the pick this year at 1.1, if you have a 9 or ten pick in the years 1st rnd draft, then trading forward is a good option depending on is your team winning now or rebuilding.
By this logic, couldn’t you just say that the sophomore value of the better class is 2017 is going to be more valuable than the sophomore value of the class of 2016?
If Gurley was worth 2ish firsts when he was drafted, and is now worth 3, and Chubb/Fournette could be as good/better, then selling now for 2017 picks could get you the same, or better, return right?
You’re correct Ryan O. However, it’s not just the sophomores that make the 2017 class good. Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Corey Clement, Elijah McGuire, Evan Engram, OJ Howard, Bucky Hodges, Jake Butt are all Juniors that went back to school.
I agree that the value of 2017 picks will only continue to rise.
I think selling 2016 for 2017 could be a good idea. I’m trying to do it with my two 2016 first rounders. The key is that I’m in a 16 team league and my highest of the two 2016 first round picks is 1.13, the other is 1.15. I’m trying to flip them for 2017 first round picks from teams who are far from contending, so what I get in return will be within the top 6-8 picks the next year.
Sms,
Love this strategy! This is exactly what i’ve done thus far this year. I moved a 1.10 + small parts to a weak team for a 2017 1st. I wouldn’t be afraid to toss in low end players, 3rd round picks, etc to put someone over the top to move 2017 picks.
This is a very interesting read. I haven’t studied up much on the classes yet but starting. I need RB/WR help as I have Allen/Lewis/Riddick and Evans/J.Brown/Evans.. I have the 1.01, 1.02, 1.11, 2.01 picks. I agree with you to wait till rookie fever kicks in and try to deal the 1.02/1.11 picks for next year.. but might try to trade away the top two if the return is greater. I like having the top picks, but also like trading for someone wanting to overpay.
This just affirms what I already felt and believed. Here is my conundrum.
I have the 1.05 and 1.09 in a 10 team lg. The nuance is we are starting ONE devy slot to draft this year. Was going to use the 1.05 for Chubb, but thought that despite up to 10 DEVY players from 2017 class being drafted, would still be worthwhile to trade out of 1.09 and into 2017. Hopeful Corey Davis, Courtland Sutton etc would still be draft eligible in my rookie draft in 2017.
With the devaluing of 2017 picks with top 10 prospects at this time off board, do you still subscribe to trading out for next year? Thanks.
Also, anyone who is seriously into dynasty should get the DEVY report Nick put together. It only costs a cup of Starbucks, $5 and is a great prep on who to watch this year and who to grab in DEVY leagues now.
Dan,
I would definitely draft Chubb at 1.05. I’m afraid Corey Davis will likely be one of the top 10 devys selected and I’d snag him at 1.09 if you could as well.
Thank you for the support on my Devy Report. It feels great to know people really appreciate it.
At this point, with nearly all dynasty sites giving the same message to sell of 2016 for 2017, there is bound to be an overvaluation of 2017 picks. In most of my leagues, where the members joined from the DLF forums, you can’t trade a 1st and a 2nd this year for a 1st next year. Just like the stock market there is a tipping point in value where you should hold the 2016, hope your player increases in value then decide to flip or not based on the sophomore value increase.
Ultimately it isn’t a secret strategy, or helpful, if everyone is in on it. The best advice to be taken at this point is to hold on to your 2017 picks unless someone is willing to overpay based on your team needs (contending vs. not contending).
I completely agree with Ben here. In all of my dynasty leagues I cannot get anyone to come close to accepting an offer of a mid 2016 1st for a random 2017 first, its just not happening and everyone is keen on the 2017 class.
I see people saying trade the 2016 1.01 to move back a few spots and grab an additional 2017 first, I just don’t see this happening in any of the 6 leagues I am in.
Started my first dynasty leagues last summer. One locked out access to ’17 first rounders to deal, but in the other I did have access. I ended up orchestrating trade creeps with the start up drafts largely to push down my 1/2 turn pick into an area where I could justify taking Gurley and pick up multiple ’17’s for my trouble. By the end of the draft I’d moved out of round 1, traded down in round 3, and traded up in round 4 and picked up two ’17’s. Immediately after the season I also worked the league trying to pick up more, making one poor trade in terms of value (my current first rounder, for his ’17 first rounder, and ’16 third rounder), and one solid one (my ’16 2.12, and 2018 1st and 2nd rounders for his 2016 4.10, his 2017 1st rounder, and his 2018 third rounder.
As a result now I own 5 2017 first rounders in that league, nobody else has more than 2. Three of the five teams finished in the bottom 6 this year, a 4th made the semi-finals, and the 5th won the league this year.
All the moves were built around the idea of constructing a team with strong young players with upside, solid value picks (Dalton in the 20th, Eifert in the 9th), and a massive collection of ’17 first rounders.
My reasoning was fairly straight forward, based on what I saw of the ’16 class, I felt it was one of the worst drafts for playmakers this decade. I saw two players that I gave better than a coin flips shot of being legit tier 1 options at their positions, the rest of the guys I was skeptical of them even reaching tier 3 status for the most part. The ’17 class meanwhile was loaded, even before so many guys went back to school. Can their be attrition? Absolutely, just look at the QB prospects for the ’13 class, The Tyler’s (Bray and Wilson), Aaron Murray, Landry Jones and friends were all supposed to go top 10-20 overall, and none went until day 3 if that. There’s definite volatility, but traditionally that value volatility is much more closely related to QB’s than it is to playmaking WR’s and RB’s. There are cases like Alshon Jeffrey (got fat and slower) or Keenan Allen (got hurt his last year at Cal, was a five star stud recruit that everyone slept on in fantasy and the NFL alike) where a player projected to go top 5, drops like a rock, but it’s relatively infrequent compared to QB’s.
To me it was fairly simple. I don’t anticipate the vast bulk of the ’16’s to be difference makers AND just as importantly, I think it could be virtually any one of them that proves me wrong, it will be largely random and totally unpredictable, like Jeff Blake going from East Carolina to a starting gig with Cinci 20 years ago, and I don’t think I’ll be any better than anyone else at figuring out what random prospects in this draft beyond the one certainity (Zeke) prove to actually be legit options. So trading down and out (2 3rd rounders, 2 4th rounders), and bulking up on what I consider an absolutely stacked draft made absolute sense to me.
If you don’t have a top 2-3 pick, I don’t see any point in staying put, trade out for ’17’s and dart throws in round 2 and later. This draft will be disappointing, the ’17 will be HUGE.
I’ve had a trade posted on our league trading block since 2/13. Two 2016 second rounders 2.05 & 2.07 for a 2017 first round; no takers yet. Last weekend ran into a trade my 2016 1.01 ( would have picked Treadwell) for the 1.07 2016 and a 2017 second. Have 5 of the first 21 picks for 2016 and plan on taking all WR; any thoughts ?
I can’t see anyone wanting to deal a ’17 first for two mid-2nd’s in a largely bad draft (’16). Really fool hardy to me, although I will admit, if nothing else, this draft seems rather deep in WR’s likely to be selected between around the mid-2nd round, and the end of the 4th/early 5th round, but they are all roll of the dice types to me, none of them are guys I’d be confident in.
Honestly, if I were you I’d be dealing as many picks out of the top 6 in ’16 as possible for ’17 picks. Build an armory of picks to be able to allow for flexibility in the ’17 draft and/or in package deals of a player and picks for picks (or players for that matter).
I think it’s worthwhile to have an extra pick or two in rounds 2,3 and 4 this year just for some extra dart throws because I think quantity will be more helpful than having a particulary high pick once you reach say, slot 7 and beyond basically. 5 of the first 21 picks? The difficulty there to me seems to be that after Zeke, there are no players that look definitively like they’ll be studs as pro’s, and after Treadwell, and Doctson (and Coleman to some), it’s really a situation where you’re much more likely to land a bust that will be bench fodder and then cut, then actual help which is why I’d deal out in as much as possible. If I could deal 3 of those picks for say a 17 #1, and a 17 #2, I’d do it, and then trade down with the other picks to try to add multiple dart throws, something of that sort.
That’s just me though. Damn fine job collecting so much ammo, if nothing else, you’ll have a lot of flexibility in a very difficult draft.
I had 3 first round picks this year, i am keeping the 1.2 and i traded the 1.10 for a 1st next year, and i traded the 1.12 for Latavius Murray.
Think i did ok?
