Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game. Also, a “Number to Remember” will be provided that will center on a key statistic that will influence the game and your dynasty team.

Early Games

Kansas City at Baltimore
Number to Remember (NTR) – 31.6

Not sure how much of this is luck or skill, but the Chiefs have the best average starting position (31.6 yard line) in the NFL. It does help explain how the team is bottom five in plays per possession (5.4) but top ten in points per drive (2.02). That is the benefit of winning the field position game.

With Spencer Ware potentially out, Charcandrick West should see an increase in carries once again, including those at the goal line. West did have 22 carries per game in the three contests prior to Ware’s emergence, along with another three receptions and a touchdown in each. The talent is there, but what is the role in 2016?

A second year player out of Tennessee-Martin, receiver Jeremy Butler has stepped up with all the injuries at the position. This culminated in a seven catch (on ten targets) performance for 72 yards, the former leading the team last week. He should be on dynasty radars, even when Breshad Perriman returns to the team next year.

Tennessee at New England
NTR – 404 and 538

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Few things have gone right for the Titans defense, but fortunately they have seen just 404 pass attempts, the fewest in the league. Meanwhile, the Patriots have thrown second most in the NFL (538 pass attempts) and will likely try to keep a high pace. Considering the Titans have a 6.9% pass touchdown allowance rate (second worst), the Patriots could easily put up the needed points without much effort.

I love Marcus Mariota. Last week, he became the first rookie since Deuce McAllister in 2001 to record a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown over the season. Further, among the 44 men on the list all-time, he is just the second to have over 10+ passing touchdowns (Harry Newman, 1933). Quite simply, Mariota is good.

With LeGarrette Blount on injured reserve, Brandon Bolden took over and managed 51 yards on 16 carries. While James White should maintain a hold on the receiving game, Bolden is capable there as well and could provide more upside in PPR than Blount did this year.

Chicago at Minnesota
NTR – 215.8 and 189.7

The spotlight is usually on what works, but sometimes it is fun to watch what is burning. In this case, it is the Minnesota pass offense (189.7 yards per game, 31^st) and the Chicago pass defense (215.8, 2^nd). While the outcome may seem clear, the Vikings need to show something heading into 2016 or there will be upheaval amongst the receiving group.

He may not be high on the pecking order, but Marc Mariani has been playing roughly 90% of the offensive snaps in the last three weeks. While the numbers have been consistent, no one will be excited about two receptions for 35 yards per week. That said, Mariani has the look of a nice option for the Bears, especially as the team works more down the field.

Calling Teddy Bridgewater’s season a disappointment is doing a disservice to the word. He has just two games of 300+ yards and is averaging less than a touchdown per game. While some of this may be the conservative nature of their offense and a lack of weapons, Bridgewater is content checking down in an effort to avoid turnovers. Not what you want from a player who was a top ten option at his position before the season.

Atlanta at Jacksonville
NTR – 66.2 and 57.4

The Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing nearly two thirds (66.2%) of opponent’s attempts to be completed. Lost amidst the pass volume and touchdowns is the inefficiency, evident by the 57.4% completion rate (second lowest in the NFL). Blake Bortles has shown improvement, which is needed to maintain the ninth highest attempt rate.

Mentioned here before, Justin Hardy appears to be on the rise to the second receiver opposite Julio Jones. In the last three weeks, his snap share has risen from 15% to nearly 70% and he had a season high seven targets in week 14. However, he did only catch one of those seven targets and is struggling to see much beyond short yardage routes. He could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the offseason.

With T.J. Yeldon likely out, this is a Denard Robinson week and it should be a good one. Shoelace has been an explosive runner, upping his average from 4.3 to 4.7 yards per carry including last week’s 14 carry for 75 yards. Yeldon is still the main guy here but Robinson is among the best backups in football.

Houston at Indianapolis
NTR – 96

An easy example of why this division is still up for grabs: the Colts defense has given up 96 points in the last two weeks, both blowout losses. The team has just twice held an opponent under 20 points this season and will struggle here as their fourth worst pass defense faces a pass volume heavy Texan offense.

Injury has T.J. Yates starting this week and with the division in the balance, he is needed. In his one game against the Jets, Yates managed 229 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. However, that was on 34 passes (47% completion rate) so if the team expects to get a repeat, the pass volume will need to be turned up to 11.

Looks like Donte Moncrief is hobbled once again, meaning we could see a little more Phillip Dorsett this week. Dorsett has largely been a deep threat option, meaning he has a poor catch rate (44%) and is only seeing the field in clear passing situations (35% snap share last week). The rookie could be a discount investment during the offseason, even if that discount is slight; it will be worth the cost.

Buffalo at Washington
NTR – 46

One of the hardest figures to predict is fumbles, but it is still detrimental to an offense and a player’s confidence. Buffalo (24) and Washington (22) are in the top five for most fumbles on rushing attempts. These teams are very different in their rushing results, but these two teams cannot afford to giveaway the ball.

With Sammy Watkins playing well, eyes have been averted from Robert Woods. Over the last five weeks, he has averaged over seven targets per game and has become the clear second option for Tyrod Taylor. With Percy Harvin a free agent, Woods should continue to see a clear path into 2016.

If there is one thing I hate, it is talking about Washington’s running back situation. With newly signed Pierre Thomas still learning the playbook, he managed to see just four plays against the Bears, resulting in a single catch. With Chris Thompson still questionable, Thomas could continue to increase his role as a pass catching back. How much upside though is debatable.

Carolina at New York Giants
NTR – 1057

This big number is the amount of pass attempts the two teams have allowed this season with the Giants (530) the worst and the Panthers (527) holding down third. This could easily become a passing affair and the Panthers have so far scored at least 20 points in every contest, making it a potential shootout.

Another reason this should become a passing affair is the absence of Jonathan Stewart. The lead runner will likely be Fozzy Whittaker, the former Longhorn who is now on his fourth team at the age of 26. He has managed 4.4 yards per carry in his Carolina career, but the likelihood of seeing a major workload is low.

I know this is a dynasty website, but if Dwayne Harris is inactive, Hakeem Nicks could be a big part of the offense. Ok, stop laughing. I’ll wait. Any time now. Oh, nevermind.

Afternoon Games

Cleveland at Seattle
NTR – 44

It is safe to say the Seahawks run defense has hit their stride, allowing just 44 rush yards per contest the last four weeks. Now, they get the Browns, who up until last week had not seen 100 offensive rushing yards since week six. Guess how this one will turn out?

A player who had some excitement heading into the season, Isaiah Crowell had his first big game against the 49ers, surpassing both 20 carries and 100 yards. He is not going to manage that against the Seahawks but I am interested to see if the Browns continue to lean heavily on Crowell the rest of the season.

Now, Thomas Rawls and Marshawn Lynch are hurt, crippling the talent at the running back position. It is Bryce Brown’s turn to take the wheel. They also signed someone but he is insignificant. Completely insignificant.

Denver at Pittsburgh
NTR – 30

Since 2000, there have been 17 instances of an offense scoring 30 or more points for five straight games or longer. The Steelers just hit five and could become the tenth to manage the feat six games in a row. Denver has not allowed 30 points to an offense in 2015.

Every skill position starter is dealing with an injury right now, so I will revisit Jordan Norwood, the third receiver in this offense. He has just 13 catches on the year but is playing roughly 40% of the team snaps. It is a long shot he does much of anything, but there could be a late scratch that boosts his value. Be advised.

An oldie but goodie, Heath Miller has been much more unreliable this year as he alternates good and bad performances. He has two games of double digit receptions and another three games of one or no catches. Slowing down is inevitable but losing two targets per game speaks to the team shifting their focus. It’s been fun.

Green Bay at Oakland
NTR – 9

An offense that struggles to be league average, the Packers have done one thing well: avoid turnovers. They lead the league with just nine giveaways, largely a result of the uber-efficient Aaron Rodgers. Considering the offense has eight games with zero offensive turnovers (6-2 record), it is exceedingly difficult to get extra possessions from the team.

It looks like Davante Adams could miss the game, meaning it is another chance for Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis to make a dent. They combine to take about 20% of the offensive snaps with Abbrederis holding a 3:1 advantage in recent weeks over Janis. The end of the roster is struggling to hold them on dynasty teams so this may be a last chance to see if either have value.

Latavius Murray is hitting a wall late in the season, managing under three yards per carry in three of the last four weeks. He is at 215 carries for the season, nearly three times the 82 he had in 2014. Murray is barely on pace for 1000 rushing yards. Either he needs to step it up this offseason or get a running mate for 2016.

Cincinnati at San Francisco
NTR – 8

There are very few things about the 49ers offense that can be viewed as positive, but how about the fact that despite starting Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert, they have just eight interceptions on the year (fifth fewest). The Bengals are third in the league with 16 interceptions against opposing offenses, so they will be looking to revert Gabbert back to his own ways.

Bye Andy Dalton, hello A.J. McCarron. He showed well in his first extended action with 280 yards and two touchdowns…although the two interceptions were unfortunate. The former Alabama quarterback will be missing a major piece in Tyler Eifert, but he could be creating a potential asset for trade (he is signed through 2017).

The Torrey Smith experiment is not going well and the team is beginning to turn to Quinton Patton. Patton led the team last week with five catches on nine targets (for 46 yards). He is not a long-term answer to any question, but is a telling sign of Smith’s value on this version of the 49ers.

Miami at San Diego
NTR – 10

Since the bye week, the Chargers have averaged 10 points per game, with 31 of those 40 total points coming against Jacksonville. The team has been fraught with injuries along the offensive line and the receivers, making it difficult to find consistency. Many rode Philip Rivers to the fantasy playoffs, but does he have anything left to give in 2015?

It seems like every coaching staff the Dolphins bring in just frustrate Lamar Miller owners. He was on pace for a great game last week, then was given one carry in the fourth quarter where they were leading. Please leave Lamar, for the sake of owners and social media.

As mentioned, the team is running low on receiving options with Antonio Gates perhaps being the healthiest. Gates has just one game with less than five targets so expect another high volume output from the ageless wonder.

Sunday Night Game

Arizona at Philadelphia
NTR – 25

This number applies to both teams as each defense has managed to force 25 turnovers this year, tied for second most. For Philadelphia, this is more important as they struggle on defense otherwise, ranking in the bottom half for points and yards allowed. Arizona is a top eight offense in both those categories.

The offense has been well represented here, so let’s highlight the amazing season that Tyrann Mathieu is having. With nearly 80 solo tackles along with four interceptions and a sack, the Honey Badger is an active defender that the Cardinals have deployed in multiple spots on the secondary. Sorry though, my wife is an Alabama alum so I can’t root for him too much.

For all the negativity that Zach Ertz gets, he is on pace to match last season’s output. While that will not inspire many to celebrate, considering all the disruption on the team, it is saying much more than the numbers let on.

Monday Night Game

Detroit at New Orleans
NTR – 41

Volume seems to be a theme this week and this game is no different. These two teams each average 41 pass attempts per game, top five in the NFL. Considering they average less than one interception per game combined, there is little downside for investing in either of these offenses.

Consider this a public service announcement: Theo Riddick is good. Yes, he is slow and small but his receiving acumen is painfully obvious. He remains the only running back with multiple receptions in every game this year. Riddick should end the season with 80 catches and end up an RB2 in PPR formats.

Another player winding down, Marques Colston caught two touchdowns last week and has all of his receiving touchdowns from Drew Brees. That remarkable connection still shows up in spurts, even if he has been passed up by Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks.

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