Contrarian Plays: Week Seven

Matt Price Posted On October 24, 2015

witten

Before we get to the week six recommendations let’s take a look at how we did in week five.

What worked:

Ryan Fitzpatrick killed it for us at QB, netting 26.22 points for our $6900, good for 3.8x his salary.

We scored at running back with our Lamar Miller selection. He netted us 18.8 points for just $6400 and looked great doing it. Perhaps new head coach Dan Campbell

T,Y Hilton produced six catches for 74 yards and a touchdown, paying off his $7400 with 16.4 points.

The Minnesota Vikings put up a respectable eight points for our $4500.

What didn’t:

Teddy Bridgewater failed to pay off his salary of $6400 when he threw for two interceptions against Kansas City.

Duke Johnson didn’t see the same volume in the passing game that made him a fantasy star the last two weeks. He finished with just 7.1 points for his $5900 price tag.

At wide receiver, Jamison Crowder dropped a touchdown pass and only finished with six points for the $5900 we spent on him. Despite catching five balls for 102 yards Anquan Boldin failed to catch a touchdown and didn’t quite pay off for our $6500.

Crockett Gillmore was a bust in his first week back from injury. He didn’t help us out much either with just 4.5 points for his $4900 price.

Let’s get to the picks for this week.

QB:

Ryan Fitzpatrick – $7100

Fitzmagic worked out well for us last week and we are going back to the well in week seven when the Jets travel to Foxborough for a divisional matchup with New England. The Patriots defense is good but the Jets are likely to be playing from behind for most of the game. This will create a pass-heavy game script for Fitzpatrick that is sure to pay off his price tag.

Landry Jones – $6000

Watch the injury and practice reports this week but if Landry Jones ends up starting this week he makes an interesting play against Kansas City. It’s on the road at Arrowhead but KC is sporting one of the worst pass defenses in the league and allowing 20.6 schedule adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Jones and Martavis Bryant seem to have developed some chemistry on the field that paid off big time for fantasy owners last week. In week seven a Landry / Bryant stack costs just 21.5% ($12900) of your total budget and could be one of the most explosive combinations of the week.

Christine Michael – $5600

[inlinead]Another player to watch the news and practice reports on this week. It appears that Dallas is going to give Michael a real shot coming out of the bye and if he does indeed get the start then he makes for a great lottery ticket type play against the Giants in week seven. Joseph Randle has been adequate as a starter but isn’t anything special. Michael and his fantasy owners have been waiting a long time for him t get some work. This could be the week that we see him live up to the hype.

Danny Woodhead – $6000

We’ve been waiting all season for Melvin Gordon to put together a great game but it just isn’t happening. He has had several flashes but the mistakes are starting to outweigh the benefits of having him in the game over Woodhead. He was benched after two fumbles last week against the Packers and never got back in the game. The offense just looks better and more efficient with Woodhead in the lineup and this week there is value in the Chargers backfield at home against the Raiders. Put the cheaper option in your lineup and look for a touchdown this week in a must win type of game for the Chargers.

John Brown – $6700 / Michael Floyd – $4900

Coming off a career game, Brown should still be much less owned than his teammate Larry Fitzgerald, who has already built up a reputation for being reliable. The Cardinals get a Ravens team this week yielding the second most fantasy points in the league to opposing wide receivers. Look for Brown to get behind the secondary for a long touchdown in week seven. If you really want a hail mary type of play, you could do worse than Floyd whose skillset lends itself to a big game against the Ravens if he gets the targets.

Ted Ginn Jr. – $5300

Ginn was bottled up against the Legion of Boom in week six but he has been productive against bad pass defenses this season as Cam Newton’s primary target at wide receiver. His matchup against the Eagles this week is much better. Philadelphia is allowing the third most points to opposing wide receiver this season at 30.2 points per game. Ginn should produce this week at home and have a shot at a long touchdown.

Antonio Brown – $8300

I talked about the potential of a cheap Landry Jones / Martavis Bryant stack earlier but the same holds true for a Landry Jones / Antonio Brown stack, albeit much more expensive. Brown makes for an interesting pivot play this week off of the other elite options at the position. The five wide receivers priced above him are likely to be much higher owned and Brown has a better matchup than all of them. If Michael Vick somehow starts then this throw this pick out the window after lighting it on fire.

Jason Witten – $5600

At tight end this week our pick is an oldy but a goody. Picking a mid-priced TE is a contrarian play in of itself most weeks with most owners either paying up for Rob Gronkowski or punting the position with a budget play. Witten offers a fairly safe floor this week with a good matchup against the Giants who are ceding 13.3 points per game to opposing tight ends which is the third highest in the league.

DST

Pittsburgh – $4600

The Steelers defense has been playing deceptively well this season and have been a decent fantasy defense. This week they get a toothless Kansas City offense that could only manage to put up 10 points last week against the VIkings. The Steelers should have low ownership compared to the more expensive options at the position.

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Matt Price

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Senior writer and co-host of the DLF Dynasty podcast, the longest running dynasty focused podcast on the planet

Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.

Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.