The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. Our 12-team non-PPR league has a salary system that finds high profile vets getting dropped and joining rookies in our annual draft. Which of the following would you rank in the first round alongside the rookies and where would you rank them: Rob Gronkowski, Peyton Manning, Ryan Matthews, Tony Romo, Larry Fitzgerald, Julius Thomas, Reggie Bush, Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson? Is Gronk worthy of the #1 overall pick? – Paul in TX

As the receivers and running backs you listed fail to jump off the page, and quarterbacks simply aren’t as valuable in smaller formats, to me this list begins and ends with the tight ends. New England star Rob Gronkowski is arguably the most important asset in dynasty football, and is in the conversation for being the first overall pick in a normal format, let alone one with a shallower player pool. If you can find a way to maneuver into pick 1.01, I’d do whatever it takes to acquire fantasy football’s biggest mismatch.

Jacksonville’s Julius Thomas, while not quite an elite asset like Gronkowski, certainly merits consideration in the 1.07-1.10 range. While there’s no possible way he scores the football at the same rate he did in Denver (24 touchdowns in 27 games with Peyton Manning under center), it’s more than reasonable to assert he’ll see a bump in targets due to the relative lack of skill position firepower on the Jags. I’d easily take him over any of the rookie tight ends both this year and last, and he’d be a fine consolation prize if you’re unable to snag Gronkowski.

2. I have been offered three 2016 first round draft picks and Ameer Abdullah for Julio Jones.  My receivers are Jones, DeSean Jackson, Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor and Markus Wheaten.  It seems like a lot of picks, but who knows if they fall to the end of the first round? Should I take them and throw in the towel for the season or try and trade those picks for younger talent this year or just decline trade all together? My gut reaction is to say no to the trade. – Lara in MI

[inlinead]Including Lions rookie runner Ameer Abdullah in the equation, you’re essentially being offered four first round picks for Falcons standout Julio Jones. And as much as I like Jones (he’s currently listed as my number-one receiver in dynasty), I don’t believe any player is worth four first round picks. Even if not every one of those players hits, the perceived value of rookie selections is so high that I have no doubt you’ll be able to recoup any losses at this point next year.

More importantly, if losing Jones will cause you to throw in the towel for the year, it would seem your odds of winning it all even with him in your lineup weren’t that great regardless. Sure, it would hurt to lose him as an asset, but there’s no worse place to be than in your league’s “mushy middle.” Rebuilding a year too early trumps rebuilding a year too late every time in my book and this trade would be a fantastic start.

3. Our 10-team, 25-man roster league is looking to expand to 12 teams, but we aren’t sure how to handle the expansion draft. It seems very difficult to balance being fair to the incoming owners with not punishing those current members who have very deep rosters. In particular I am wondering how many players you think it would be fair to allow each team to protect outright. Is four fair? Would you then create a second group from whom only one or two players can be selected? – Kevin in Parts Unknown

Four protected players per team seems very reasonable to me, as that would represent just over three full rounds of a 12-team draft. In all likelihood the vast majority of studs will be safe, leaving the “old guard” relatively intact, but the new owners should still have a legitimate chance to accrue quality players. You could also include a rule stating no one team can have more than five of their players poached, ensuring the “deep” teams aren’t unfairly penalized for having better rosters.

Continuing, if you really want to help out the newbies, I’d ensure they have the first two rookie picks in each round of your rookie draft (whoever picks second in the dispersal draft could have rookie pick 1.01). Doing this would help them accumulate talent organically, without directly affecting the other teams. You could even give each an “extra” pick at the end of the first round to help them get up to speed more quickly. There’s still a good chance the expansion teams won’t be great in year one, but to me this would represent the fairest solution.

4. I’m the reigning champ of my league and my current starting lineup is Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Do I stay put at my pick at 1.10 and try to draft a rookie running back to replace Forte down the road or should I try to move that for a veteran that can help me produce for what I think is a pretty solid two year win now window? – Andrew in DE

Depending on how your league-mates value running backs, there’s a reasonable chance you could stand pat and still snag a guy like TJ Yeldon, Tevin Coleman or Ameer Abdullah who could contribute immediately. As your starters are relatively locked and loaded, that would seem the most preferable option to me, as you never want to swing too far to either side of the age spectrum. However, if you do want to trade, wait until you’re on the clock, and target guys like CJ Spiller, Jonathan Stewart or Alfred Morris – these are players who should definitively provide you with starting-caliber production for the next 1-2 years, ensuring you’re giving yourself the best shot of repeating.

5. I’ve recently joined an existing dynasty league for my first dip in the dynasty pool. My team is terrible, but I’m fine with rebuilding. I’ve noticed that my league heavily values running back and quarterback over receiver and tight end, even beyond an adjustment for no PPR. My question is: What would be a good strategy to use this to my advantage? – Andrew in AL

While there can often be wisdom in the masses, it can also lead to market overcorrection if and when everyone walks the same line. It’s my belief that if everyone is zigging, it’s time to zag. This rings especially true when your league-mates are fixated on quarterbacks and running backs, which to me represent the most fungible and volatile positions respectively. If you have signal callers and ball carriers to burn, I wouldn’t hesitate to flip them for pass-catching talent, especially since you’re rebuilding anyhow. Once you build up your receiver and tight end base, you could be a draft or two, and some shrewd waiver pickups, away from contending.

6. I’m wondering why Sammy Watkins is consistently ranked and drafted ahead of fellow 2014 rookie class member Brandin Cooks? Cooks has Drew Brees, less competition for targets, plays indoors in a division that struggles against the pass, while Watkins plays in Orchard Park, against tougher teams, and has Matt Cassel at quarterback. Both make their living on slants and screens. Am I missing something? Is this just a case of groupthink? – Brian in NY

I don’t believe it’s as cut and dry as you’re making it seem. First and foremost, we’re talking about two 21-year old players – sure, some of the points you made ring true for the present moment in time, but this duo should be around for quite some time, and a lot can and will change. Drew Brees isn’t going to play forever, Matt Cassel likely won’t be under center for more than one season, and divisional hierarchies can change in the blink of an eye – perhaps more importantly, there are no guarantees Cooks and Watkins remain on their respective teams beyond their first contracts.

Continuing, I don’t agree they’re similar players. Cooks is essentially a better version of Tavon Austin, needing touches manufactured for him en route to averaging barely 10.0 YPC. He also had the bonus of Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston siphoning away defensive attention so he could roam free underneath. Sure, the targets could and should spike this season, but do we know if Cooks can consistently beat up on the opponents’ top corners, or beat bracket coverage?

Watkins was forced to do that in year one, and while the results weren’t spectacular, I don’t believe he did anything to let down those who drafted him at pick 1.01. No, he wasn’t transcendent like Odell Beckham and didn’t score the ball like Mike Evans, but that shouldn’t taint our memory of the year that was. I still view him as a future WR1 and have him comfortably above Cooks in my rankings – the potential short-term benefits Cooks could provide simply don’t sway me.

7. Really confused by the Jimmy Graham narrative of late.  Immediately after the trade, his value supposedly took a hit.  Now it seems to be trending back up again with many experts claiming his demise has been exaggerated. I did a little research of my own.  Seattle hasn’t had a pass catcher break 900 yards receiving since Russell was drafted.  On average, the Seahawks throw for 1,700 fewer yards and 18 fewer TDs than the Saints squads Jimmy was a part of the past 3 years. Am I wrong in thinking that even if Jimmy is Russell’s #1 target, it will be extremely hard for him to reach the yardage/TD totals that had him so high on previous years draft boards? – Scott in MI

I don’t think anyone is confusing the Seattle offense with the volume-passing efforts of New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, but put me in the camp that believes Jimmy Graham’s move to Seattle won’t be the death knell of his value. First and foremost, Seattle’s pass catching corps has been decidedly underwhelming during Russell Wilson’s tenure, with players like Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse leading the way. If these players could accumulate 98 targets in a season, I firmly believe Graham should be able to easily surpass 100.

Next, Wilson has increased his passing attempts each year in the league, reaching a high of 452 last season. It’s certainly not a huge amount, but it’s also worth considering that, out of necessity, 176 of these targets went to mediocre talents in Kearse, Luke Willson, Ricardo Lockette, Cooper Helfet, Tony Moeaki, Kevin Norwood and Zach Miller, with 26 more going to the departed Percy Harvin. All told that’s 45% of Wilson’s attempts, many of which I’m sure he’d rather throw to a legitimate talent in Graham.

Finally, the Seattle offense is simply more dynamic than that of the Saints. Wilson is a threat with both his arm and legs and Marshawn Lynch is one of the (if not the) best running backs in the league. Defenses will have a lot more to think about when defending the Seahawks. No, he probably won’t get the same red-zone looks due to the presence of Lynch, but I can easily envision him being the top target between the 20’s.

I’m aware this is merely projection, and I’m also aware the Seahawks didn’t do much with Harvin despite trading a first round pick to acquire his services, but Graham is one of the biggest mismatches in the game. Harvin is a dynamic player, but decidedly one who needs touches manufactured for him. I think John Schneider and Pete Carroll plan on making this trade count, and as such I still have Graham as my overall TE2.

8. I am entering year four of my PPR IDP Dynasty league. I have Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders, Justin Hunter and Cody Latimer at receiver, but only Frank Gore, Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and Chris Ivory at running back. I have pick 1.07 in this years rookie draft, and was wondering if I should draft Tevin Coleman or Ameer Abdullah and keep my receivers, or should I flip Sanders for someone like Jonathan Stewart or Alfred Morris? Should I consider trading Cobb for Jamaal Charles and keep Sanders with Brown? I am unsure if I want to sit tight for now or make a move before the season starts. I’m close to competing. – Doug in Canada

As always, when it comes to the possibility of trading draft picks, you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t wait until you’re on the clock (unless someone knocks your socks off with a phenomenal offer). If you choose not to take a running back (it might be a little early for Coleman and Abdullah, but not out of the realm of reasonability), you should certainly be able to flip the pick for a Lamar Miller type. If you also wanted to simply take the BPA at pick 1.07, I wouldn’t see anything wrong with trading Emmanuel Sanders for an upgrade at ball carrier.

As for your last trade, I know I stand in the minority but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Randall Cobb for Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles. I think Charles is the best running back in the league, and we’re all still waiting for him to not achieve 5.0 YPC in a season. Especially if you think he could push you over the edge, it’s a move I’d make.

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