Slot Sleeper: Jared Abbrederis
Over the last handful of years, many fantasy owners have made a point to always try to have a piece of the Packers’ offense on their roster. That’s sound logic due to Green Bay consistently having one of the most potent offenses in the league for such a long time.
Many owners have built perennial contenders around players like Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson. Even less talented players like Jermichael Finley, James Jones and Ryan Grant have been sought after by dynasty owners in the past due to the success Green Bay has had. It’s even gone so far that players near the bottom of the Packers’ roster like Jeff Janis and Brandon Bostick have been attractive options with upside to many dynasty owners.
For good reason, many dynasty owners have looked to Green Bay’s roster depth to fill the bottom of their own benches. But this off-season, there seems to be one player who’s been ignored for the most part.
[inlinead]It’s not surprising Jared Abbrederis has become the forgotten man in Green Bay. After all, he was just a fifth round pick a year ago from a school not known for producing talent at the receiver position and he missed his entire rookie season due to a torn ACL in the opening days of training camp a year ago. Perhaps it’s time however, that dynasty owners start considering the former Wisconsin star for a roster spot once again.
The primary reason Abbrederis’ stock should be on the rise throughout this off-season is the potential opportunity he has to make an impact in Green Bay in 2015. Although most would consider the Packers to be loaded at wideout with Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and even Janis and Jarrett Boykin, they’re really not that stacked when it comes to the slot receiver position and they’d be even less so if Cobb were to leave in free agency. Below is a table of the Packers slot production in 2014:
| Slot Production by Green Bay Wide Receivers | ||||
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Randall Cobb | 106 | 75 | 1,067 | 12 |
| Jordy Nelson | 30 | 22 | 243 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Obviously, Cobb is one of the best slot men in the league and is incredibly important to the Packers’ offense. In 2014, he caught 91 total passes for 1,287 yards and a dozen touchdowns and accounted for 76% of the Packers’ targets by receivers from the slot as well as 74% of the receptions, 79% of the receiving yards and 92% of the touchdowns.
It’s pretty obvious to most at this point how vital Cobb is to the Packers’ offense, but it’s unknown if Green Bay’s front office plans to admit as much by giving in to his contract demands. The latest word out of Green Bay has indicated Cobb is looking for a contract that would pay him around $9 million per year. After the Packers dished out $9.75-million per year to Nelson last offseason, it’s unclear whether they’d be comfortable committing so much of their salary cap to another receiver which leaves future very much in the air.
So the question is who would fill the void left by Cobb if he were to sign elsewhere in free agency?
At this point, the best slot receiver in Green Bay outside of Cobb is Nelson. So without Cobb, the Packers could choose to use Nelson inside the numbers more than they did in 2014 but he’s also the best outside threat for Rodgers so finding another solution would be ideal. It’s also true Adams should improve going into his second season but playing in the slot isn’t one of his strengths so while it’s probable that he would get some of Cobb’s targets, he wouldn’t be doing it from Cobb’s old position. Many in the dynasty community have also argued that Janis would be an ideal candidate to replace Cobb but his wheelhouse also lies as an outside receiver so the Packers would likely look elsewhere – that could lead the Green Bay coaching staff right to Abbrederis.
Although Abbrederis did a lot of his damage in college from outside the numbers, he’s an ideal slot receiver in the pros due to his incredible route running and technique. He’s excellent out of his breaks, particularly when crossing the field and running out routes and comeback’s to the quarterback. With incredibly quick feet, he wastes very little motion at the top of his routes. He also uses a convincing head fake when making his breaks to get open on a consistent basis when in tight coverage. Abbrederis was also quite prolific while in college finding the opening in zone defenses, which is a must for the slot receiver in Green Bay’s quick passing attack.
Although many of his big plays while in Madison came on play-action, much of Abbrederis’ damage was done after the catch in college, often being called upon to run drag and crossing routes. He’s not the biggest receiver, listed at 6’1″, 195 pounds, but consistently brakes through tackles by defensive backs. He also has a nose for the first down marker, rarely running a route short of the sticks.
Although Abbrederis possesses none of the athletic characteristics Cobb has, there is one part of his game that is much more polished than that of the current slot man in Green Bay – his hands. While Cobb’s hands have let him down often over the last few years (he had eight drops in 2014), Abbrederis has incredibly soft mitts. He always watches the ball all the way into his hands, effortlessly plucking the ball out of the air even when in traffic.
Overall, Abbrederis isn’t going to wow anybody with his size, speed or ability to sky over defenders to make ridiculous catches. However, the former walk-on and scout team quarterback can be a smart, sneaky inside receiver that can find cracks in coverage and take advantage of his quick feet and solid route running to uncover against the press which makes him an ideal fit for the slot. Also a very good kick and punt returner, his incredible work ethic and unwavering drive to be a starting NFL receiver will most assuredly win him a roster spot in Green Bay in 2015 whether Cobb resigns or not.
As for where Abbrederis fits on the dynasty landscape, that depends on the league. His potential is likely to be far greater in PPR leagues than standard leagues due mainly to his only likely path to playing time in Green Bay being as an inside receiver – running short to intermediate routes. Secondly, because he’s been off the radar since the beginning of training camp, he’s a free agent in many dynasty leagues which is ideal for owners searching the waiver wire for upside this offseason.
Right now, because of the uncertainty surrounding Cobb and whether he’ll be back with the Packers, Abberderis is an excellent free agent addition for those with medium to large sized rosters. He’s also a very good trade target for those looking for a “throw in” or some extremely cheap, youthful upside at the receiver position for the end of their dynasty roster.
As far as I’m concerned, adding Abbrederis as one of the final players on your roster is a no-lose proposition for dynasty owners. In the event that Cobb re-signs with Green Bay, Abbrederis becomes expendable as one of the players that you could release to make room for the incoming rookie class. But if Cobb finds a new home, you may have Aaron Rodgers’ new slot receiver and you won’t have to race to the waiver wire to add him.
Making sure you have a piece of the Packers’ offense should be part of every dynasty owners’ “to-do list” this offseason. It’d be foolish not to grab a player that has the potential to be a part of that offense right now – especially when that player is so cheap.
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