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Dynasty

DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

Manning

In last week’s reboot of Impact Events, I talked about risk. I explained how to evaluate and act on risk, but ultimately, the ability to assess risk is completely up to the individual. If you believe the juice is worth the squeeze, don’t let me tell you otherwise.

There was one thing missing from last weeks piece, though. I talked about the proverbial squeeze, but not about the juice – the other side of the “risk” coin. This week I’ll examine the concept of reward.

Peyton Manning, QB DEN

News: According to Sports Illustrated and multiple other sources, Manning should be back in Denver next year. Some details still need to be ironed out, though.

Analysis: Talk about the ultimate reward. A team in search of a championship and possibly the best quarterback of our time, if not ever, are the ultimate marriage.

Let’s focus on the dynasty aspect of this, though. Is Manning a risk? Is he a reward? Every player holds risk and reward in dynasty. You can borrow the scales from Lady Justice to determine which trait a player holds, or you can simply look up Ryan McDowell’s ADP data from February. Manning is being drafted as the QB13, after Jameis Winston! If that doesn’t scream “reward” to you, seek out Anne Sullivan because you may have hearing problems.

In the DLF Writers Only mock, I drafted Peyton Manning with the 160th overall selection, but he actually fell further in another draft, lasting until pick 171.

Randall Cobb, WR GB

News: According to an ESPN Packers reporter, Cobb is seeking $9 million per year.

Analysis: If this is true, we know what this squeeze is, $9 million, but what’s the juice? Cobb hauled in 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2014, but his contribution doesn’t end there. Cobb was effective in the return game earlier in his career, and he continues to lineup in the backfield in certain packages. Cobb is quite simply the most valuable slot receiver in the league, and if I were his agent, I’d be asking for more.

[inlinead]What does this mean for his dynasty value, though? Honestly, this seems like a reasonable asking price, so I’m assuming Ted Thompson will pay. If Cobb stays in Green Bay, his value stays in tact, along with that of his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. If for some reason Cobb lands in another city, I do not believe his value is gone. He is an amazing receiver who, if he catches on with an accurate quarterback, can post thousand yard seasons and flirt with ten touchdowns every year.

Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN

News: According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the back injury that ended McKinnon’s 2014 season required surgery which he is within two weeks of completing.

Analysis: For those of you who follow my work closely, you know I’m not one to overpay for the athletic freaks in dynasty. Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather a player be tall, fast and agile, but far too often, dynasty owners spend for traits rather than ability. This doesn’t seem to be the case with McKinnon. He’s being drafted as the RB27, rounds after equally unproven players like Latavius Murray, TJ Yeldon and Duke Johnson. According to our friends at playerprofiler.com, McKinnon is one of the most athletically gifted players in the game.

As I stated earlier, there’s always risk with every player. McKinnon’s biggest risk factor is the possibility of Adrian Peterson returning to pre-suspension form, and claiming the workhorse job in the Vikings’ offense. There is a distinct possibility of that very scenario coming to fruition, but this is dynasty fantasy football. Peterson probably won’t be around forever. Even if 2015 isn’t McKinnon’s year, he may be extremely valuable next off-season.

Zach Mettenberger, QB TEN

News: According to the Nashville Tennesseean, early indications are the Tennessee Titans plan on taking a non-quarterback with the second overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, presumably leaving Mettenberger alone atop the depth chart.

Analysis: I’m not going to attempt convincing you into offering a crazy trade in which you’d acquire Mettenberger for your first born, but there is some intrigue. Many draft scouts graded Mettenberger much higher than the sixth round pick in which he would later be drafted, and any time a team shows faith in a player, I listen. Even the Titans.

The only risk I can see in adding Mettenberger to your dynasty team, is the roster spot he’d occupy. In bigger leagues, I’d suggest checking the waiver wire. In smaller leagues, simply keep an eye on him. He may not be worth a spot in 20 roster spot leagues. In 2QB leagues, though, you should probably price check him. If the Mettenberger in your league thinks Mariota is bound to wind up in Tennessee, capitalize. Worst case scenario, the Titans draft a top quarterback and you can cut Mettenberger with minimal pain. There’s a good chance you end up with a starting quarterback next season, though.

Chris Johnson, RB FA

News: The New York Jets declined Johnson’s bonus. He will become a free agent on March 10.

Analysis: Johnson’s days as an elite running back were over long ago, but his future as an NFL contributor may be over now, too. This may be one player who simply is not worth the proverbial squeeze. I’m not confident Johnson is on a roster opening day, and in his own words “I don’t even be in the game.”

The name of the game is risk/reward. You buy low, you sell high, you try to score more points than your opponent. Some players are great, but do not deserve the dynasty price tag they’ve been given. I gave Josh Gordon’s 2014 offseason price as an example of this last week. I’ve seen it time and time again, an owner (or multiple owners) will become infatuated with a player and be willing to pay any price for them. This isn’t The Godfather. You can’t make everyone an offer they can’t refuse and expect to compete. You need to make reasonable offers for the right players, and if the reward doesn’t outweigh the risk, you sell.

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Krcil
6 years ago

I kind of find myself hoping Cobb finds a new home because I hear a lot of talk on how his value is tied 100% to Rodgers and I do not find that to be true. Cobb is still very good and will be good on another team who has a decent QB.

Anyone else hoping they can buy low on Cobb leaves GB?

Big B
Reply to  Krcil
6 years ago

I couldn’t disagree more Krcil, and with Karl’s assessment. I think Cobb is another receiver that will leave a great accurate QB in search of the money. He is nothing another 20 WR in this league aren’t if he moves. There is not enough that can be said about a qb putting the ball on the money for a catch and run guy. He isn’t going to beat people on deep posts, and isn’t going to be the go get it. He is exactly what Karl said in a slot receiver and that is the most important WR position to have an accurate qb. I am an Adams owner so I’d love to see him go, but if he leaves GB almost any destination is going to drop him 15 spots, ask Decker

Vince
Reply to  Big B
6 years ago

I guess I’ll take the middle stance. I think there are certain places he can go and still be the same guy. Unfortunately a lot of them can’t afford the kind of money he’ll command (New Orleans, Denver, New England, etc…). If he ends up with one of the needy WRs teams for the money, I can see his value dropping quite a bit (Carolina, NY Jets, Kansas City)

Bobo
Reply to  Big B
6 years ago

Decker went from Peyton to Geno…if Cobb goes from Rodgers to someone of Geno’s stature then you have a point. But there are lots of destinations Cobb can end up in that will keep his value.

cactusdave
Reply to  Bobo
6 years ago

To me, what Aaron Rodgers means to Cobb is quite similar to what Peyton Manning was to Marvin Harrison in their days together at Indy.

Nothing wrong with riding that fantasy horse for as long as it lasts. But it’s highly unlikely that Cobb sustains anything close to his 12 TD performance someplace other than GB.

Statistically free agent WR’s don’t perform very well in new destinations anyway. And in this case, we’re talking about a smallish, somewhat injury prone slot receiver.

If a team were going to pay me a nice, long, fat contract commensurate with elite WR1 performance and I was Randall Cobb, whether it’s GB or not, I’m taking the money because I’m not going to see a deal like that again in my career.

Slick
6 years ago

risk/reward IS the name of the game. good stuff Karl.
quick follow up question on the Peyton front – how will Latimer’s value and prospects be affected with him back? I drafted him in the early 2nd last year and am hoping he gels with Peyton in offseason and they let him loose this year. I realize Kubiak is a 2TE guy, but I am hoping they modify that, especially if Orange Julius walks (likely)…

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