IDP Indicators: The Final Weeks

Just like the offensive side of the ball, the last few weeks of the season can be crucial in identifying potential breakout IDP players. Each year, it’s important to spend some time reflecting on these performances and consider doing some box score scouting to make sure nothing is lost. This is important considering several non-playoff owners or playoff losers may check out during the final weeks and miss important indicators leaving value on the table. Indicators to monitor include quarterback pressures, increased snap percentage or increased tackle/sack production.

As always, some apparent promise can be false given the facts and circumstances, but this is a great way to pluck potential off the wire or acquire an appreciating asset at the basement level.

Here are a few who jumped out based on the final weeks of the NFL season, including the handful of playoff games:

Demarcus Lawrence, LB DAL

After missing much of training camp and about half of his rookie season with a broken foot, Lawrence returned to the lineup in week nine. Through the final three weeks of the season, he racked up five quarterback pressures with a tackle and two assists. Those pressures converted into production during the playoffs where he registered a sack in each of the Cowboys’ two games. He added three tackles to those sacks on roughly 38 percent of the team’s snaps. Rookie defensive ends typically struggle with a full training camp and preseason, but Lawrence came back from a significant injury and began to show signs of promise late in the year. While his rookie draft cost will keep his value inflated, he’s undervalued considering George Selvie is a free agent coming off a lackluster 2014.

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Christian Jones, ILB/OLB CHI

Through the last three weeks of the season, Jones shifted to weakside linebacker and played approximately 97 percent of the team’s snaps and amassed 25 tackles, six assists, and two sacks. That’s an average of eight tackles, two assists, and a fraction of a sack – very solid production for the once highly touted linebacker.

With the hiring of Vic Fangio as the Bears’ defensive coordinator, a number of changes will happen with this defense, including a likely change to a 3-4 base defense. There is speculation Jones would be a rush linebacker in this scheme, however, I believe he’ll stick in the middle given his range, athleticism, height, and current size. He’s still extremely raw, so he could play any of the 3-4 linebacker positions, but he’s a nice speculative buy given the late season production.

Telvin Smith, WLB JAX

Smith was drafted early in 2014 rookie drafts given his opportunity with the Jaguars. Unfortunately, he started off slow. Over the first ten weeks of the season, he only put together one game with five or more tackles and played 50 percent or more of the team’s snaps in only four games. Because of that, many owners were disappointed for much of 2014. Things changed after the Jaguars’ week 10 bye, though.

Most notably, over the last three weeks of the season, he played 100 percent of team snaps (98 percent in last 5 weeks). In two of the last three weeks, he posted double-digit tackles. In all, he averaged seven tackles and five assists over the period. Not bad after the slow start. Part of the initial struggle was due to how raw Smith was out of Florida State, but the late season improvement is encouraging and indicative of significant potential.

Paul Posluszny will return from injury in 2015 and is likely to maintain his spot in the middle of the Jaguars’ defense. This isn’t great news for Smith since this should reduce his tackle opportunities. Despite that, Smith proved he could be an every down linebacker, which is big from an IDP perspective. If this late season production is any indication of what we can expect, he’ll be a consistent LB1 before long.

Manti Te’o, ILB SD

Never a fan of Te’o, I always felt he’d struggle to shed blocks and sort through the trash in the NFL. However, his production and snap count over the last three weeks are notable. Over this span, he started each game, played a subpackage role on roughly 95 percent of the team’s snaps and averaged seven tackles and three assists. With Donald Butler injured in week 15 and to injured reserve the following week, Te’o enjoyed less competition for tackles and produced.

This could be a sign of a potential breakout, but the problem is he’ll continue to compete for subpackage snaps and tackle opportunities with Butler locked up with the Chargers for the foreseeable future.

Sealver Siliga, DT NE

The Partiots’ young defensive tackle posted a sack in two of the three final games of the 2014 regular season. He also played more than 70 percent of the team’s snaps in three of the last four weeks (including the playoffs). This late season emergence isn’t new for Sealver the same thing happened in 2013. The unfortunate part is there’s a log-jam at tackle in New England with Dominique Easley, Chris Jones, and Vince Wilfork all in the mix. The silver lining may be Siliga is only 24 years old and a restricted free agent in 2015.

Siliga’s a deep league defensive tackle required stash to see whether the Patriots tender him and, if so, at what level. If they don’t tender him or tender him at the minimum, Siliga may find himself in a more IDP friendly situation in 2015.

Stephon Tuitt, DE PIT

Tuitt started the last five games of 2014, including the divisional playoff game. He played 85 percent of the team’s snaps over that span where he accumulated 10 quarterback hurries, 10 tackles, two assists, a forced fumble and a sack. Not dynamite numbers, but encouraging after he a slow start. He reportedly was pushing to start back in training camp, but struggled early. A mid-season injury to Brett Keisel helped create an opportunity for Tuitt and he produced.

Tuitt’s ceiling is limited as a 3-4 defensive end, but he’s getting to the quarterback, which bode well. One of the knocks against Tuitt out of college was he needed to rush the passer more effectively. If he continues to get to the quarterback like he did late in the year, he’ll make an intriguing defensive end option.

Cornellius (Tank) Carradine, DE SF

After not seeing much action early in the season, over the last three weeks of 2014, Tank played roughly 35 percent of the team’s snaps. With those snaps, he tallied three sacks, seven tackles, four assists and two quarterback hurries. The release of Ray McDonald certainly helped create an opportunity for snaps, but this is why the 49ers drafted Carradine in the second round of the 2013 NFL draft despite a torn ACL.

With the speculation of Justin Smith retiring, Tank should be situated for a starting role in 2015. As Vic Fangio, the 49ers’ former defensive coordinator said, 2014 was really Tank’s rookie season given the injury pre-draft injury in 2012/2013. Now with a season behind him, being two years removed from ACL surgery and with a potential starting job, 2015 could be a breakout year.

It’ll be important to see how Eric Mangini sees things, but given Tank’s explosiveness, strength and production at the end of 2014, his value is on the rise.

Follow Steve on Twitter at @SteveWyremski

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