Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Fifteen

 

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Early Games

Green Bay at Buffalo

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Randall Cobb has had at least three catches in every game this season but has not scored in his last four games (after scoring ten times in the first nine games). There is reason to believe that the latter streak ends as Cobb works primarily out of the slot and the aptly named Nickell Robey for Buffalo is the second worst for yards allowed to slot receivers. Robey will struggle to keep up with Cobb in this one and hopefully we will see a bounceback in a pivotal week.

Cheating a little here, I highlight the outside linebacker tandem of Nigel Bradham and Preston Brown. Bradham is a third year player who has only seen two games with less than five solo tackles, becoming a consistent IDP presence for owners. Brown is a third round rookie who is tied for fifth among outside linebackers in solo tackles (and leading the position in assists). This duo should see plenty of work this week and continue to help a resurgent defense against arguably the league’s top offense.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Round two of the battle of Ohio represents an opportunity for Andy Dalton to put the first go-around behind him. Throwing for just 86 yards and three interceptions, Dalton will need to do better if he hopes to keep the Bengals in the division lead. A healthy A.J. Green helps, as does a 7:4 touchdown to interception ratio since the first Cleveland game (and a 70% completion rate).

Chants of “Feed me More” must be repeating in the head of Isaiah Crowell, especially with this matchup. Cincinnati is among the worst in yardage and touchdowns allowed to running backs but Crowell was given the ball just 12 times (with a touchdown) in the first matchup. Since then, he has met or surpassed that mark in each game while averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He should be a solid RB2 for owners that are lucky enough to own him.

Houston at Indianapolis

J.J. Watt has three touchdowns from the tight end position; all other tight ends combined for Houston have two. Indianapolis is among the bottom five in touchdowns and yardage allowed to the position but Houston has failed to establish an individual player there. Garrett Graham was the popular choice in the preseason but he has just 18 catches on the season. C.J. Fiedorowicz was hyped as the eventual replacement but four targets on 397 snaps played does little to help that argument. Someone could exploit this matchup but it is hard to guess who that may be.

The return of Dwayne Allen did little to disrupt the momentum of Coby Fleener despite the fact Allen (58 snaps) played nearly as much as Fleener (61). Fleener still managed seven targets to Allen’s three, the third time Fleener has hit that mark in the last four weeks. I remain skeptical of the current pecking order but a game against a team that has allowed the third fewest yards to tight ends will be a good litmus test.

Miami at New England

Of all the players I wax poetic about (and there are many), none may be more mismanaged than the Dolphins’ Lamar Miller. His 4.8 yards per game are sixth in the league among ball carriers with at least 150 carries but he has only surpassed the 15 carry mark once this season back in week seven. Add in the fact that he has only ended a game below four yards per carry three times this season and you have a consistent weapon. New England is a plus matchup against the run, allowing 4.2 yards per carry while their cornerbacks make the pass game a risky proposition. The Dolphins have no need to be cute here while jockeying for a playoff spot.

Fun fact time: No New England running back has over 100 carries on the season but three have over 70 with a fourth, LaGarrette Blount, averaging 14 carries since his signing three weeks ago. Blount has become the running back du jour in New England and Miami’s run defense is a positive matchup to focus on the ground game. Blount will likely be a source of yardage and the potential for a touchdown in the merry-go-round that is the New England backfield.

Pittsburgh at Atlanta

While I usually try to highlight the non-elite players but Le’Veon Bell’s season deserves recognition here. A 1.6 yard per carry increase and gains in missed tackle rates and catch percentage have all been remarkable. Now, he gets to face the Atlanta defense that has given up the most rushing touchdowns this season. With five touchdowns in his last three games, Bell should continue his recent run and help owners through this round of the playoffs.

It is looking more likely that Julio Jones will be out, or at the very least, limited in this game. As such, it is time to revisit Harry Douglas, who had a nine catch, 116 yard game just two weeks ago. Pittsburgh has struggled against the pass this season, giving up 15 yards per catch, second worst in the NFL. This has the makings of a good game for Douglas and should be a good fill-in for owners with injury issues.

Jacksonville at Baltimore

With promising Denard Robinson on the IR, we are back to the carousel of mediocrity in the Jacksonville backfield. Many dynasty owners were invested in Toby Gerhart will be interested to see if he can make the best of this opportunity. Unfortunately, Baltimore is fantastic against the run as they are third in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed and second best in rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. If Gerhart, or any Jaguars’ back, can find success in this game, it should help carve out a 2015 role.

Thinking to next season, an IDP option of interest is Pernell McPhee. The rotational outside linebacker is tied for second in the NFL in quarterback hits and in the top ten for quarterback hurries despite playing roughly 50% of the snaps. He may never become a tackling machine but could be a good source for sacks in leagues that give bonuses for big plays. Jacksonville is notorious for poor quarterback protection so I will be interested to see if he can make his presence felt.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Since returning three weeks ago, Doug Martin has once again failed to impress with a 3.4 yard per carry average. Fortunately, the other running backs are not doing much either. Martin has taken a bad turn in the Lovie Smith era but this game could help regain some confidence. Carolina is fourth worst with a 4.5 yards per carry average against running backs and has been repeatedly brutalized by opposing running backs. If Martin cannot right the ship (classic Bucs joke), then he may be gone this offseason.

The easy watch here is Derek Anderson, who had two touchdown passes against this Tampa Bay secondary in week one. With Cam Newton on the sidelines, Kelvin Benjamin is at the whim of the former Browns quarterback. Anderson should be fine here, however, as Tampa Bay is allowing an NFL worst 68.7% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.

Oakland at Kansas City

Latavius Murray broke off a 90 yard touchdown run in the previous meeting and Kansas City does allow 5.1 yards per carry, worst in the NFL. That, unfortunately, means little to the Oakland coaching staff who has insisted on using mummified running backs all season instead of giving Murray the opportunity he deserves. No reason to expect anything less here but I’m hopeful as perhaps his biggest advocate.

Knile Davis had more carries in week eight (16) than he has in the five games since combined (15). Many dynasty owners, and writers, thought Davis would be in a timeshare with Jamaal Charles after a pair of 100 yard games when Chares was hurt. Andy Reid, though, tends to stick with one running back and with Davis signed for two more years after this season; his only hope is a trade in the offseason.

Washington at New York Giants

With DeSean Jackson a “50/50” proposition for the game on Sunday, maybe we will see another 2013 Pierre Garcon sighting. Last week, he managed nine catches on ten targets for 95 yards with Colt McCoy floating the ball to him. With McCoy on track to start this week, Garcon could have another nice PPR game in what has been a disappointing season.

Lost in the hoopla around rookie sensation Odell Beckham has been the turnaround of Eli Manning. The current 23:13 touchdown to interception ratio (partially influenced by a rough five interception day against San Francisco) is a vast improvement over the 18:27 split of 2013. Manning is showing that he can be more efficient when given good receiving weapons and more time in the pocket (2.0 sacks per game in 2014 vs. 2.4 in 2013). Washington is one of three teams that has given up 30 touchdown passes this year so Manning should be a great play for quarterback needy owners.

Afternoon Games

New York Jets at Tennessee

Very few would have thought Eric Decker would improve his catch rate going from Denver (62.6% in 2013) to the Jets (64.0%). The touchdowns and overall targets are both down but the fact that he has remained an efficient receiver has been a testament to his ability. Decker has a nice matchup against the fifth worst defense in passing yards allowed to wide receivers so he has a chance to outperform the low end WR3 status he has held most of the season.

Jake Locker gets another chance to start and he couldn’t have asked for a better matchup. The Jets are one of the three aforementioned teams to have given up 30 or more passing touchdowns this season. They also have the second highest quarterback rating against (107.3) so Locker should be able to find a lot of success in this game. If he plans to be more than a career backup, he needs more than just another average output.

San Francisco at Seattle

Since this is likely going to devolve into a defensive battle, I will focus on a pair of IDP of interest. For the 49ers, Antoine Bethea has looked great in his first season with the team. Already tied for his career high in passes defended (eight) with three interceptions, his slight dip in tackles (on pace for roughly 85 total tackles) will be made up for by big plays. Bethea should be a consistent source of points for the next few years with this top notch defense.

On the Seahawks side, Bobby Wagner has punctuated his week 12 return with three straight games of at least six solo tackles. He shows no signs of the toe ligament tear that sidelined him for over a month and should be able to help any dynasty owners that are in the playoffs and need a consistent option in their lineup.

Denver at San Diego

Lost in the hype of C.J. Anderson has been the great part-time play of Juwan Thompson. Thompson is actually averaging more yards per carry (5.2) than Anderson (5.0) and has shown himself capable as a blocker and pass receiver. Anderson will remain the starter here but Thompson has become a great stash with the futures of Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball all but certain.

The tight end position is where I would like to focus here. The hype of Ladarius Green is all but mute at this point as Antonio Gates looks like he could play his career out similar to Tony Gonzalez. Denver is terrible against opposing tight ends, allowing the most receptions to them of any team in the league. Add in a Gates two touchdown performance in their earlier meeting this season and we should see Gates surpass double digit touchdowns for the fourth time in his career.

Minnesota at Detroit

There is little continuity in this offense beyond rookie Teddy Bridgewater. With three straight two touchdown games, he has shown the progression all season you hope for from a rookie. However, facing the same Detroit Lions who ravaged him to the tune of eight sacks and three interceptions earlier this season should be an even better way to see how far that progression has truly taken him.

With Joseph Fauria hitting the injured reserve list, we have to return to rookie tight end Eric Ebron. The thriving nature of the rookie wide receiver class has many dynasty owners nervous about the first round pick at tight end. The learning curve tends to be steeper here but he has managed multiple catches in seven straight games. I expect Ebron to continue the steady ways while potentially seeing a few red zone looks that would have gone to Fauria.

Sunday Night Game

Dallas at Philadelphia

Remember Terrance Williams? He has only managed five catches total in his last four games including just two in the first Philadelphia game. The Cowboys were blown out in that one and they could really use Williams’ help in the inevitable shootout. He did have six touchdowns in the first seven games this year (zero since) so he knows how to get into the end zone.

In six games with the Eagles, Mark Sanchez has managed to avoid throwing interceptions in just two of them. He also has three 300 yard games and four games with two touchdown passes. Sanchez faces a Dallas defense that is middle of the road against the pass overall but does allow the fourth highest completion percentage (66.7%), which should help avoid those interceptions.

Monday Game

New Orleans at Chicago

Kenny Stills has been a beneficiary of Brandin Cooks’ season ending injury, but so has Nick Toon. Toon has been a sleeper of several DLF staffers and he is finally getting his chance. After 11 weeks of waiting (just seven snaps of offense), he has caught nine of his eleven targets in the last three games including his first career touchdown. The fourth round pick from 2012 has the physical tools that teams look for and could become a replacement for Marques Colston down the line given his abilities on the outside.

Another receiver getting a big opportunity due to injury is Marquess Wilson. Having dealt with a collarbone injury that knocked him out for the first ten weeks, Wilson now steps into the starting lineup after Brandon Marshall was put on the injured reserve list. His season high five targets should get bettered this week as the Bears will need to keep up with a Saints offense that will be looking to get back on track and capture the division title.

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