Summer Sleeper: AFC South IDPs
So far this summer, the focus on sleepers here at DLF has been on the offensive side of the ball. Steve Wyremski and I are going to be rolling out IDP summer sleepers across the conferences over the next few weeks.
As always, these sleepers will be of varying levels – some of the stash variety and others who could breakout in 2014.
As we’ve highlighted previously, scheme changes, coaching changes, and position changes can significantly alter IDP value and present arbitrage opportunities for owners. Based on those items and training camp thus far, here are some AFC South sleepers:
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Houston Texans
Brooks Reed, LB
After a promising rookie campaign which included six sacks and 45 total tackles, Reed has kind of gotten lost in the shuffle while trying to find his niche on this defense. For the last two years the Texans have flirted with moving him inside full time to play alongside Brian Cushing but never had the pass rushing manpower to do so. Obviously, that all changed when the team selected Jadeveon Clowney with the first pick in this year’s draft. Reed will now step into a full time, every down role on defense. In their base package he will team with Cushing inside with Clowney and Whitney Mercilus on the outside. In their sub packages he should stay on the field and could even play with his hand in the dirt at defensive end from time to time. With all the attention J.J. Watt and Clowney are going to attract, whoever lines up on the opposite side is going to see plenty of one-on-one opportunities.
Reed offers big time sleeper appeal because of his scheme versatility and ability to stay on the field every down. Even though he’ll be listed as an inside linebacker he’ll play as many as three positions in the front seven with the potential to set a career high in sacks, and the best part is you can get him dirt cheap.
Indianapolis Colts
Bjoern Werner, OLB
The soon-to-be 24-year old outside linebacker for the Colts is entering his sophomore campaign after finishing his rookie year with 18 total tackles and 2.5 sacks. The team asked him to hit the weight room this off-season and he pretty much never left the team’s facility. It’s not like he has any family close, Werner is from Berlin, Germany and played his ball collegiately at Florida State. Now the Colts desperately need him to make a second year leap. He’s going to be asked to step up as the team’s primary pass rusher for the first four games of the season while Robert Mathis serves his four-game suspension, a role which also allowed Mathis to register an eye-popping 19.5 sacks in 2013 on his way to becoming the NFL’s sack champion.
If Werner can continue building on the hard work he’s put in during the off-season and his impressive start to training camp, he should be able to easily overtake Erik Walden on the opposite side once Mathis returns. He offers solid long term value in sack heavy leagues as he’ll continue getting better over the next couple of years. I wouldn’t have any problems starting him week one against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. He’ll also see the Eagles, Jaguars and Titans before Mathis returns in week five.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Telvin Smith, WLB
Another Florida State Seminole makes the list with Telvin Smith, the fifth round selection of this year’s draft. Smith comes in at 6’3” and 218 pounds with an every down skill set. His ability to drop into coverage and rush the passer will make it incredibly difficult for the Jaguars to keep him off the field, especially when the player he’s competing against is Geno Hayes. The fact he slipped to the fifth round was a bit puzzling. He put up great numbers at the Combine with a 4.52 second 40-yard dash and a 9-foot-11 broad jump. His biggest area of need is his slight frame. He’ll need to live in the weight room to stand up to the punishment of the NFL game.
I love what Coach Gus Bradley is doing in Jacksonville. He’s building this team the right way with “his guys.” Unfortunately, the secret is out with Smith. He’s not an unknown but he will join Paul Posluszny and Johnathan Cyprien as the nucleus of this defense. On top of being a great IDP dynasty asset, I would be shocked if he wasn’t the week one starter on the weak side and provide solid LB3 numbers all year long.
Tennessee Titans
Zaviar Gooden, ILB
This is a bit of a reach because if things go right for the Titans he’ll only be solid depth and a rotational player for them in 2014. The plan for new defensive coordinator Ray Horton is to start Wesley Woodyard and Zach Brown at inside linebacker. Unfortunately, Brown is starting off with this coaching staff the same way he ended with the previous regime – in the dog house. Gooden was put into the starting lineup for the team’s first preseason game because Brown was benched for the first series for violating an unspecified team rule. He was benched at the end of last season for putting in less than 100% effort on the field.
Gooden doesn’t quite have the polish Brown possesses but he is lightning quick and is able to play sideline to sideline. They both posted the fastest 40-yard dash among all linebackers at their respective Combines. Brown ran a 4.44 second 40-yard dash in 2012 and Gooden recorded a 4.47 second 40-yard dash in 2013.
If Brown can keep his head in the game Gooden might not be anything more than a guy to monitor but the sophomore offers legitimate upside in Ray Horton’s IDP friendly scheme. I would only draft him in very deep leagues but I would monitor the situation and keep him on my watch list in case something happens to Wesley Woodyard or Zach Brown.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven - October 24, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Six - October 16, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
