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Dynasty

Underrated in Dynasty: Part One

Hunter

Editor’s Note: This article is from Russell Clay, one of the newest writers here at DLF. We’re very lucky to have Russell join the crew here and you’re going to enjoy his work here moving forward.

The best time for dynasty leagues is now! Start-ups are in full force and it’s time to grab the value before deeper research is done. My favorite part of draft season is evaluating the landscape and deciphering who’s overvalued, undervalued and just right in terms of ADP(Average Draft Position). Since I’m an optimist, I’m going to start with the players I see being overlooked. I made my list, checked it thrice. Here’s the group that’s going from naughty to nice (I promise the list is better than this butchered holiday joke).

There’s going to be a common theme with this group – choosing to see ceiling rather than current status. While I wouldn’t suggest building your entire team like this, having jackpot players who could bump your roster to a new level of value should be a goal.

The easiest way to separate your teams from the pack? Getting players, regardless if you like them or not, because the value makes sense. The message I want to get across is that you must detach yourself from players and learn to fall in love with value. If you’re constantly buying and selling ahead of the market, you’ll have enough assets to eventually trade for any player you like.

Note: When mentioning rounds, I’m referring to a start up dynasty draft. This will save us a ton of typing and reading worthless words.

Quarterback

Robert Griffin III, WAS

I’m giving RG3 a mulligan for 2013. It was fairly obvious, even early on, something was MUCH different than the previous year’s model. But just because he had one bad poor season doesn’t mean we should forget about what happened. Griffin took the league by storm in 2012, in reality and fantasy. The golden age of RG3 was on, then it abruptly ended after he tore everything in his knee kept playing on it. Injuries (which is an obvious risk and one of the reason’s his ADP is where it is) and terrible coaching/management were there. However, he’s shown the ability to change an entire team and put them on his back – there aren’t many quarterbacks who have that ability. While I’m not his biggest fan, the value seems to be there in the 7th-9th round. If Griffin hits the ground running (literally?) in 2014 and he becomes a high end QB1 for any stretch, people will come running back to the idea of him as a top four dynasty quarterback.

Running Back

David Wilson, NYG

He had a terrible injury and I understand the concern, but when you consider where he’s getting drafted vs. his talent/pedigree/rookie year flashes… it’s a no brainer. New York is in serious need of an offensive playmaker and they’ll continue to find him a role. Wilson is another one of those players who hugely disappointed in 2013 with a ton of hype around him, so his ADP and trade value is grossly exaggerated because of hurt feelings. I would be comfortable taking Wilson as high as the late fifth round, but you can get him currently in the 10th-12th round range, which seems to be a potential bargain.

Trent Richardson, IND

Well, if you’ve read this far, you know the theme. Richardson is pushing me to the ledge of trust. It’s really incredible how miserable he was last year, even considering he was traded. Pathetic, barftastic (?), irrelevant, smelly, gross and terrifyingly terrible are a few ways to describe it. But, you know what? He’s still a top-5 dynasty back for me and I’ll take him in the late third/early fourth in every single draft. I don’t throw out the word ‘elite’ very often (unless I’m talking about Calvin Johnson, then it’s every other word) – that is a term reserved for the best two or three players at a position or the cream of the crop. Richardson made that ‘elite’ bell go off as a prospect, and as they say, you can’t un-ring that bell. I realize it’s crazy to believe he still has elite potential, but that’s where I’m at. He’s 22, with an up and coming offense and on a team that traded a first round pick for him. Every opportunity imaginable will be given to him and no stone will be unturned before Indy throws in the towel – that’s why I keep the faith that T-Rich somehow regains the aggressive, strong, powerful, elite ability I saw at Alabama.

Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK

Plain and simple, MJD’s value is lower than what it will be in September. It’s early in the off-season, everyone wants their new, young toys and Jones -Drew just landed in Oakland. I feel the same way, if not better about his chances than I did with Steven Jackson last year. While SJax flamed out as a fantasy back, his ADP went bonkers when he went to Atlanta and re-draft season rolled around. People fall in love with potential and when people realize how banged up Darren McFadden always is, his value will rise. He’s 29, so his career is waning, but if you take him in the 10th-12th round, and he gives you two good seasons, what more could you ask for? Also, he is a great player to hedge your bets with if you grab T-Rich or Wilson a few rounds before.

Wide Receiver

Andre Johnson, HOU

(AHHHH HE’S 33). I’m not going to say I’m friends with Andre Johnson, but he did take a picture with me in a Miami airport when I was 18. That said, I think I have a pretty good read on his situation.

The time is now to buy Andre. He comes at an instant discount because of his age and if Houston drafts a solid young quarterback, Johnson could be in for a career season. While Matt Schaub played the part of a decent quarterback (and in some cases an above average one) the past five years, he was never a player who brought Andre to his true potential fantasy-wise, which is saying something. If you go back and watch the Schaub/Andre era, you’ll see a ton of big catches, but ones that were also severely underthrown (a.k.a. catches that would’ve gone for touchdowns). When I look at the 2013 Houston Texans, I see a team with TONS of talent that stuck with their quarterback for one year too long. If stability is restored in 2014 with a new, big armed quarterback, I could see Andre having a 100-catch, 1,600-yard and ten touchdown “Randy Moss-type” late career year. I reached for him in a recent mock in the mid-fifth round, but I could see him dropping to the sixth – if that’s the case, do it.

Vincent Jackson, TB

(AHHHH HE’S 31). I’ve never taken a picture with VJax, but I still enjoy him on my fantasy teams. He doesn’t have the ceiling of an Andre Johnson, but he’s also cheaper. What you see is what you get with VJax. He’ll get you 70-80 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards and six-to-eight touchdowns, mark it down. With a new coach in town and hopefully a better, healthier offense around him in 2014, VJax will be a great ‘set it and forget it’ player the first few years as your young players grow into their future roles.

Jordy Nelson, GB

He’s in the running for most undervalued fantasy player on the planet. What he lacks in ability compared to the top tier wide receivers, he makes up for in situation. Consider he had the worst possible situation last year (Aaron Rodgers going down) and he still put up 1,300 and eight touchdowns. He’s only 28, he’s in the prime of his career and he’s attainable two-to-three rounds lower than players like Alshon Jeffery and Keenan Allen. My money is on Nelson if I had to choose who scores more fantasy points the next three years.

Roddy White, ATL

(AHHHHH HE’S 32) – Hot Roddy crushed me last year in both redraft and dynasty, but I’m a forgiving man. While he’s getting older and coming off an injury-filled season, I’m willing to gamble it was an outlier rather than a new trend. Coming into 2013, Roddy had played in 128 consecutive games, quite a streak. It also helps his case that he finished the year really strong. From weeks 13-17 Roddy, was the WR4 in PPR leagues. With Julio Jones back and hopefully a healthier Falcons squad, I expect Roddy to fall back into that reliable high end WR2 who will put up two-to-three more seasons of 1,200-1,300 yards and six-to-eight touchdowns, much like VJax. He’s currently going in the 7th-8th round range. Do the right thing.

Justin Blackmon, JAX

Finally! A youngster! A youngster with a possible drinking problem, but a youngster nonetheless. Blackmon is on his last chance in the NFL, it’s put up or shut up time. One more drinking/drug mistake and you can kiss his NFL career goodbye. BUT, once again, I’m choosing to look at his ceiling and what’s to gain – he could be a top seven dynasty receiver. Blackmon was dominant in his return, posting a five-catch, 136-yard  one touchdown game in week five and a 14-catch, 190 yard game in week six playing for the Jaguars. All had been forgiven in the dynasty community and he was seen as high as sixth in wide receiver rankings. Then he got suspended again. His value went down the tubes and his ADP spiraled down to where it is now – the 5th-7th round. I wouldn’t be trading for Blackmon if you have a top heavy team, but if you’re looking for a player to plop on the bench and bring big returns, getting Blackmon is a great idea. He was knocking on the door of the big boys before the suspension – the talent is 100% there.

Justin Hunter, TEN

It’s not often that a young player gets undervalued, but it happens every year. Last year it was Michael Floyd and Alshon Jeffery, this year it may be Justin Hunter. He didn’t have the volume of numbers to back it up, but Hunter flashed brilliance and potential fantasy gold last season. Hunter was my second rated receiver (behind Keenan Allen) in last year’s draft class and I expect big things out of him in his sophomore campaign. He won’t perform to to the level of Alshon Jeffery, but a startable, WR3/Michael Floyd-type of sophomore year is what I expect. Of all the players on this list, this is the one I’m the most ‘sure’ on. We’ll be talking about Hunter as a top 10-15 receiver by this time next year.

Tight End

Vernon Davis, SF 

(AHHH HE’S 30). Vernon Davis had 13 touchdowns last year along with 52 catches on 84 targets (catching the ball 62% of the time). Davis caught a touchdown in six of his last seven regular season games as well. Davis is my still my TE2. All the pub went to Jimmy Graham, and deservedly so, but Davis’ 2013 season was a borderline historic year efficiency wise as 25% of his catches went for touchdowns… 25%. He was the TE4 in PPR leagues and was only 14th in targets. He was the 23rd ranked receiver (wide receiver/tight end) in PPR and was 63rd in targets. Davis has always been that type of player – he did it in 2009 as well (78 catches, 965 yards and 13 touchdowns). With Michael Crabtree back, I do expect a little regression, but 800 and ten for the next three years works just fine for me.

In case you were wondering, I did the ‘AHHH HE’S 30’ thing for two reasons:

1) As a joke

2) To make it known that age is PART of a strategy, NOT the entire thing. Everyone has their own methodology – some like to go old/win now, some like to go young/win later and others like to mix it up. For me personally, I don’t see the need to do anything drastic, there’s value on both sides of the age pendulum, so why cut yourself off to potential gains on either side? If you’re drafting these older vets, you better have some young players or picks in your arsenal for the next few years. If you’re drafting a bunch of young players, why not rent a Roddy White or VJax for a few years while they develop?

As you can tell by now, there are multiple parts to this equation (note the Part One in the title). This first group is made up of the players I’m most confident in, aka the high % bets. Part two will be a bit more…daring.

Stay tuned and get drafting, folks!

42 Comments

42 Comments

  1. phantasy5

    April 19, 2014 at 5:40 am

    Welcome to DLF Russell and fantastic job here! I love to hear different points of view on these types of players! I don’t have any start ups this year but I do own some of these guys across a few teams. Of course I won’t be receiving the value you’re talking about but I’ll take the production. As far as style goes, I like the mix it up philosophy personally. Like you I’ve witnessed all 3 of these ways to produce winning, but I tend to like the mix. It has been working pretty good so far, but I’m always looking to make my teams better. Can’t wait for the next article.

    • Russell Clay

      April 19, 2014 at 7:27 am

      yea, I tend to look at my dynasty teams as an assembly line with different aged players playing different roles.

      the vets tend to do all the heavy lifting production-wise, while rookie picks/developing player keep the teams overall value afloat.

  2. BadgerYou

    April 19, 2014 at 5:52 am

    There are two I disagree on but I like the article!

    Richardson – he seems lost behind the line, always side shuffling. Unless they have a change of running scheme I think he’s doomed. He doesn’t have the vision to make it work. Product of the juggernaut of Bama football sadly.

    Hunter – the hype train left he station a long time ago on Hunter. If you browse the forums you will see some crazy trades being thrown around with Hunter involved. I don’t think hes undervalued at all, and if he is it isn’t by a lot.

    I like your article – goes well with the podcast from this week talking about players to target with late firsts/seconds (mainly the WRs over 30)

    • Russell Clay

      April 19, 2014 at 7:24 am

      totally agree on Hunter. this was actually something I released about a month and a half ago on FFoasis. (http://ffoasis.com/content/2014/03/07/undervalued-in-dynasty-leagues-part-1/).

      but since they’ve recently closed their doors, and I only finished 3/4 parts, I figured I could finish things up here with an audience that hadn’t seen it before in the first place!

      at the time I wrote this, Hunter was still a 7th-8th rounder, unfortunately now(like you mentioned), he’s a 4th-5th. I don’t hate his value now, but I think it’s gonna take some rookie draft hype to bounce it back to ‘undervalued’ status.

      either way, appreciate the read!

    • Russell Clay

      April 19, 2014 at 7:31 am

      with Trent, I’m between a rock and a hard place.

      nothing on the field has shown me anything, BUT, I stay irrationally confident based on what I’ve seen from players in the past.

      there’s been quite a few players that haven’t shown anything early on in their careers and then bloomed into fantasy assets year 3. Even if he doesn’t become what I thought he would, It’s still worth buying.

      I look at a guy like Ryan Mathews when I think about Trent now, except I think Trent has more ability. most had given up on Mathews at this point last season, which opened up a nice pocket of value.

      • SJ

        April 19, 2014 at 12:26 pm

        Matthews still finished outside the top 20rbs in PPR last year and now he’s been given even more backfield compition. I don’t understand why people feel now he’s so valuable. The upside and longterm positives are still very low.

        • Dave

          April 20, 2014 at 4:05 am

          Apparently 17 is the new 21.

          • Russell Clay

            April 20, 2014 at 9:10 am

            was gonna say, pretty sure he was #16 in a few of my ppr leagues last year, but then again, everyone plays different formats!

            anyhow, my point wasn’t on actual production, it was on ability.

            While Mathew’s is going to be on a pitch count for seemingly the rest of his career, he proved (convincingly I might add) that the talent and ability is clearly there.

            Trent is the main candidate to do that this year.

          • SJ

            April 20, 2014 at 3:18 pm

            Even if he was 17th PPR RB, Mathews was still behind another RB on his own team (Woodhead) and the majority of starting RB in the NFL.

            That’s at best a serviceable weekly FLEX/very low RB2 – which is fine, but not something Id reference to as upside in discussions. People want to say Mathews is “back”, but hes mostly confirmed that the upside for him is a middling committee back.

            If the comparison is Richardson to Mathews, then that only confirms Richardson will be a middling FLEX/low RB2 for this year and longterm. That’s not great value to go after.

          • SJ

            April 20, 2014 at 3:48 pm

            Also – I was referencing Mathews average: which was 13.1 PPG, which was good for 21st best at PPR RB in the league. My apologies, I thought I wrote that originally.

  3. Sal

    April 19, 2014 at 8:32 am

    A couple things :

    “V-Jax doesn’t have the ceiling of an Andre Johnson.”

    The last 3 seasons:
    Andre: 3,497 yards/11 TDs
    V-Jax: 3,714 yards/24 TDs

    Andre always seems to have injury concerns and just doesn’t catch TDs at the rate that V-Jax does. It seems V-Jax is even undervalued to you and is actually better (statistically) than AJ.

    And calling Hunter “underrated” is ludicrous. If anything, he’s overrated for a guy who has done so little in the NFL.

    • Mull

      April 19, 2014 at 9:21 am

      Nice point. For those in PPR leagues though:

      Andre caught 221 balls the past 2 years.

      Vjax caught 150.

    • Russell Clay

      April 19, 2014 at 9:30 am

      convenient you added in the season(2011) were Andre missed 9 games 😉

      in terms of ceiling I look at it this way:

      100+ catch seasons

      Andre = 5

      VJax = 0

      1400+ yard seasons

      Andre = 4

      Vjax = 0

      10+ TD seasons

      Andre = 0

      Vjax = 0

      • Brett

        April 20, 2014 at 3:27 am

        Well played, Russell. Anyone can make statistics work in their favor by picking one player’s worst season and another’s best and comparing the two years.

        • Russell Clay

          April 20, 2014 at 8:52 am

          yes, yes they can! that’s why, while I find stats valuable, I tend to take them as advice rather than a belief system.

  4. Russell Clay

    April 19, 2014 at 9:33 am

    Hunter is bordering on overrated status now, I agree.. if he starts to jump into the 4th round of start ups I’m gonna start to sell, but when I wrote this initially(a month and a half ago) his ADP was 7th round.

  5. bigefat

    April 19, 2014 at 1:44 pm

    My issue (other than some above) is RG3. I understand his POTENTIAL but, how many knee surgeries does it take before we have to consider him more a risk than just underrated? I mean we only got one season of RG3 and now he has “the golden age of RG3” attached to one season? I think he wil most certainly bounce back as he can’t be much worse than last season but, if his value is tied to his knees, he is going to have to fall much lower than most are taking him even at an underrated price for me to bite!

    • phantasy5

      April 19, 2014 at 4:06 pm

      I wouldn’t be so fast to count him out just yet. The guy is a freak. I believe he wasn’t at all close to 100% last season. You’ll see the guy we saw 2 years ago return with more weapons to use and won’t have to rely on his legs as much.

  6. Slick

    April 19, 2014 at 2:09 pm

    Hey Russell,

    Welcome to DLF and good series. When I read it, I thought I had heard it before. That is because I just found oasis recently, only to learn that it closed. In any case, I am looking forward to the 4th article of the series and hope you post 2 and 3 quickly and look forward to your work on DLF.

    • Russell Clay

      April 20, 2014 at 9:04 am

      soooo appreciate the support! and absolutely, working on part four today! rookies are an interesting topic and they have a ton of value intricacies that I’m not sure everyone is aware of. Lot’s of bullish opinions, both from metrics and film views. lot’s of bias in both directions.

  7. TryingToWin

    April 19, 2014 at 3:14 pm

    Justin Hunter vs Rueben Randle. Who has the higher ceiling and likelihood to fulfill it?

    • Ken

      April 19, 2014 at 3:23 pm

      Give me Hunter. This coming from a Giants fan.

      • TryingToWin

        April 19, 2014 at 4:01 pm

        …maybe Randle should’ve been in this piece. The wishy-washy news on him has cooled his stock. Personally, I’m not gonna listen to what Kevin Gilbride, the “retired” (read; forced into retirement) OC, says about Randle. Coughlin and Reese have praised him.

        • Ken

          April 19, 2014 at 4:20 pm

          I’ve watched pretty much every Giant game for the past 40 years and I take Hunter.

        • SJ

          April 20, 2014 at 3:25 pm

          I like neither as much as most, but Hunter definitely has more upside than Randle, who may be a stretch for consistent WR3 value. His play hasnt shown breakout potential in his couple years in the league.

          Hunter’s an enigma but people will still peg him as a target next year at this time even if he has only a middling season. However, if Randle doesn’t produce in 2014, everyone will cast him aside and his value will plummet (ie: V.Brown)

        • SJ

          April 20, 2014 at 3:33 pm

          I wouldn’t fall for the Coughlin and Reese “coachspeak”. Of course they support him. They need Randle to succeed to improve on offense and doubting him in the media would only help in lowering his trust and confidence in them. Many coaches/GM’s do that to get the best out of their plays – but that never predicts whats going to happen.

          Gilbride has the right to be honest at least, now that all NFL ties and interests are lost on him, even if his insight is subpar.

          Either way, Id just stake my opinion on how Randle played more than anything, and his play hasn’t be breakout worthy.

    • Russell Clay

      April 20, 2014 at 8:58 am

      I would take Hunter.

      Randle is someone that my opinion doesn’t match up with everyone else’s. he could be a really solid player, but I don’t see the ceiling everyone else does.

      while I don’t think he’s a future stud, he’s going to be a big part of the Giants passing plans the next few years. He’ll really help Eli and Cruz’s fantasy value, if anything. Cruz is begging for someone competent across from him, and Randle can easily fulfill that job

  8. Jeremy

    April 19, 2014 at 3:31 pm

    in my 16team ppr dynasty league, a steeler fan offered me JNelson for Wheaton. I also have An.Brown, C.Patterson, Hunter, Boykin & LaFell. Is this a good deal? (I think so, but want to hear opinions)

    • phantasy5

      April 19, 2014 at 4:01 pm

      If it were me I’d do it before the guy comes to his senses. I’d take proven production anyday over Wheaton’s upside. Looks like you need some proven talent along side of Brown. I do like CP, Hunter, and Boykin for your young players.

    • andrew L.

      April 19, 2014 at 4:05 pm

      The fact that you haven’t accepted that deal the second you received the offer is baffling…i suggest going and clicking accept ASAP before the steeler fan sobers up…apthat deal is such highway robbery it wouldnt even get approved in my dynasty leagues

      • Ken

        April 19, 2014 at 4:21 pm

        There would be some serious questions posed if that deal went any of my leagues.

    • Russell Clay

      April 20, 2014 at 8:53 am

      I would do that in less than a second. In fact.. give me your log in.. I’ll accept the trade for you 😉

  9. fffool

    April 20, 2014 at 4:41 am

    lol–BARFTASTIC! FFFinally, a fellow ffb deviant who has the STONES to RAGE against the FANTASY MACHINE! FEAR NOT the leerings of the cozy-couched zealots, and GIRD thyself of the pressurings of the echoing throng; thine apologists beckon from beyond thine precipice!

    I, mineself, hath HOWLED at the moon for Sir Trent since DAY ONE, CHAFING against the shackles of conformity that leave the pundit masses TRUMPETING–nay, CELEBRATING, some hen-house cacophany, extolling the impotence of this GRIZZEPHANT fantasy juggernaut!

    How, that through such blinded lens couldst thine mimmicking herd filtereth, from the savagery and beastly stealth that therein refracteth, such portents of meagerance and doom, is a wonderment–Yea, and a BEFFFUDDLEMENT to mine senses.

    POST SCRIPTUM: Alas, thine list is further deeply replete with numerous touts MOST sporty in nature.

    • fffool

      April 20, 2014 at 4:43 am

      Oops! Intended it to be a comment by FF Shakespeare!

      • fffool

        April 20, 2014 at 4:44 am

        Kinda loses it’s “edge” this way, lol.

    • Russell Clay

      April 20, 2014 at 8:54 am

      this was tremendous…. appreciate the support and making me turn on my brain this sunday morning/afternoon!

      • fffool

        April 20, 2014 at 4:28 pm

        Thanks. Hoped you would enjoy it.
        I still get a kick picturing Shakespeare as a modern-day ffb enthusiast–and kind of a twisted one at that!

  10. Russell Clay

    April 20, 2014 at 9:12 am

    not sure if you guys are on twitter or not, but I thought this was a really cool think our own Ryan McDowell posted

    https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/457661970259263488/photo/1

    it’s a graph of Justin Hunter’s dynasty ADP

  11. Big b

    April 20, 2014 at 5:15 pm

    So given the list of WR coming out in then previous article, how can someone really say Hunter has Top 10 potential. I am a Hunter owner myself and just don’t see it. There are a ton of players like Cobb, Patterson, Floyd, Allen, to name a few he has to surpass to even get close, what am I missing that everyone loves? Inconsistent, horrible qb play, and an all around ehhhhhh team with no real hope for a significant statistical change? I can’t trade him because I want to believe the hype, that said I own D Wilson and kaepernick hype monsters with a blank resume to date

  12. Russell Clay

    April 20, 2014 at 6:43 pm

    I actually do think his ceiling is higher than or equal to all those guys you mentioned, I would also include Alshon in that list. I love all of them, all have the potential to be low end WR1s for years to come. rather than ranking them, I tend to put them in tiers of value. I think Hunter could be part of that tier

    • Rick

      April 22, 2014 at 4:45 am

      I have a deal on the table where I give Hunter, pick 2.03, and pick 3.01 for Percy Harvin. Is this too much to give for Harvin, with all the hype around Hunter or would I be selling Hunter at the right time? Having a hard time deciding what to do in this deal.

  13. Mark

    April 23, 2014 at 6:32 am

    For T-Rich look no further than Ingram, Mark to see where his future is. Unless he miraculously figures out how to run forward this season he’s done.

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