Divisional Debriefing: Week Fourteen

Eric Olinger

bailey

Each week we are going to give a player from each division a “Player of the Week” honor. In an attempt to not cram the same info down your throat that you might find elsewhere, we are going to try to focus on players that weren’t draft day all-stars. In some cases they won’t even be rostered in redraft leagues, but guys that are worth stashing in dynasty leagues. We are going to focus on guys that have yielded the greatest return on your investment. You don’t need to be told Peyton Manning had a great day. He was drafted in such a spot that it was expected, same with LeSean McCoy and Calvin Johnson. That’s not to say that we won’t honor a truly elite performance, especially from rookies.

As part of a group collaboration, members of the DLF Staff have chosen to represent a division and will be selecting which players will be getting the “gold star” for the week. As an added bonus, I will also include the most impressive IDP performances of the week for each division, because defensive players need love too!

Here is who is will be nominating players for each division:

  • AFC West- Scott Peak  @Scott_Peak
  • AFC East- Jeff Beran  @JefeBeran
  • AFC North- Eric Olinger  @OlingerIDP
  • AFC South- Tim Stafford  @DynastyTim
  • NFC West- The FF Ghost  @TheFFGhost
  • NFC East- Karl Safchick  @KarlSafchick
  • NFC North- Dan Meylor  @DMeylor22
  • NFC South- Eric Hardter  @EDH_27

AFC West

Marcel Reece, RB OAK

Reece had a big game against a New York Jets defense that came into the game ranked first in rushing defense. Reece had a stellar 19 carries for 123 yards and a rushing touchdown. He added two receptions for 38 yards, good for nearly six additional points in PPR leagues. The most important point here is both Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings were inactive due to injuries, an all-too-familiar issue for both players. McFadden is a free agent in 2014 and seems unlikely to return to Oakland. Jennings is also a free agent in 2014. If both McFadden and Jennings are not back in 2014, Reece could get more touches. He signed a four-year contract in 2013, so the Raiders do value him. The question is will he get a shot at a bigger role in 2014? That is unanswered, but for now, he could be a nice addition for teams who need a running back this year. Reece is a very solid flier to take in dynasty formats, and hopefully he will get more opportunities in 2014. If he is on your waiver wire, give him a look.

IDP- Donald Butler, LB SD

For some reason, people have started to cool off in regards to Donald Butler’s dynasty IDP value. This season has been a difficult one for him as he’s dealt with a groin injury off and on, missing five complete games and part of another. Over the nine games he’s appeared in this year, he has average nearly seven tackles per game. I was able to pick him up in a dynasty league this week where he was dropped. The owner needed the roster spot and lost patience. Don’t be afraid to kick the tires. He’s prime for a bounce back.

AFC East

Charles Clay, TE MIA

Dolphins tight end Charles Clay has quietly risen to be the overall TE5 on the season in PPR formats.  After his second straight seven reception performance this week (for 97 yards and two touchdowns) against the Steelers, he is on pace to be an unheralded hero on many championship fantasy teams.  Originally drafted in the 2011 sixth round as a project fullback/H-back type of hybrid player, there were questions on whether or not he would even make the team this pre-season.  After a devastating leg injury to Dustin Keller and a slow learning curve for rookie Dion Sims, Clay has taken a stranglehold on the starting job for the foreseeable future.   If you can pry him away from another owner looking to sell high, either now or in the off-season, I would strongly suggest pursuing him.

IDP- Ed Reed, S NYJ

It’s no secret Reed has lost multiple steps over the last couple of seasons but he’s still one of the most opportunistic playmakers in the entire league. He only has 15 tackles since joining the Jets and this was his first big play. Now he’s saying he wants to play at least two more seasons after threatening retirement for seemingly the last decade. Don’t let the SportsCenter Top 10 clips trick you into believing he has any dynasty IDP value.

AFC North

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

We’ve seen Bernard flash playmaking ability throughout his rookie season. He’s averaged a very respectable 4.7 yards per carry on 131 carries while adding 47 receptions for 403 yards and seven touchdowns. His 1,023 total yards, so far, is just the tip of the iceberg. Bernard shows similar, if not better, abilities to rookie year Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew. Bernard’s price tag is already expensive, but it’s the lowest it’s going to be in PPR leagues for the next five years. Look for him to be one of the first six running backs off the board in start-ups this offseason.

IDP- Jason Worilds, LB PIT

Playing in a contract year, Worilds is finally performing like the player the Steelers drafted to eventually replace James Harrison. Over the last two weeks he has a total of 18 tackles and four sacks, two in each game. With the Steelers in salary cap trouble, it is yet to be determined if he’ll be back in the Steel City or taking his talents elsewhere. For IDP purposes he’s been too inconsistent to count on throughout his career and these last two games don’t change that. He’s worth stashing strictly as a matchup play. 

AFC South

Andrew Luck, QB IND

Well chances are you didn’t start him, but if you did chances are you are in round two of the playoffs. Luck put up a career day with four touchdowns and no picks. Some had begun to question the hype and whether Luck was the real deal – he’s the real deal. Remember that for much of this season Luck has been without his most reliable weapon in Reggie Wayne. This guy is good and his owners will be rewarded in the very near future.

IDP- D.J. Swearinger, S HOU

There aren’t a lot of bright spots left on the Texans this year but as their season circles the drain we will get to see more of the young players, like Swearinger and Shiloh Keo. This young duo should have been starting on the back end for the Texans all year but they decided to overpay the aforementioned ineffective Ed Reed. Even though the Texans will have a new head coach and defensive coordinator next season, there is a zero percent chance they switch from a 3-4 defense and minimize J.J. Watt’s impact. Swearinger is a great player to stash in IDP leagues for next season and beyond. 

NFC West

Stedman Bailey, WR STL

The problem with this week’s NFC West matchups is that every team has strong defenses so every game saw only average performances, nothing to really write home about. Therefore, I’m going to take this opportunity to spotlight a player who performed well above his expectations. Stedman Bailey was the Rams third round pick in 2013 and was drafted due to his crisp routes, exceptional speed and great hands. In consecutive weeks Bailey has posted identical statistics – three catches for 46 yards. While this might not seem like a big deal it is clear Bailey is becoming a permanent fixture in the Rams receiving corps and is likely to see an uptick in production going forward. Interestingly enough, Bailey has more receptions over the past two weeks than any other wide receiver on the Rams roster. Keep him on your radar and if possible, stash him away right now.

IDP- John Abraham, LB ARI

Grandpa still has some life in those legs. Abraham was able to turn back the hands of time on Sunday versus the Rams. He totaled six tackles and three sacks, bringing his season total to 11. Who knows how long he’ll be able to keep this up, by all accounts he shouldn’t be able to do it now. All I can say is use him while he’s hot, it’s not going to last much longer. 

NFC East

Kirk Cousins, QB WAS
There is only so much a second year quarterback can do with a poor offensive line, a lame duck coach, and a lack of a second pass catcher. No, I’m not talking about Robert Griffin III. Cousins has shown the ability to lead an offense. In week 15 of 2012, he threw for 329 yards, going 26 for 37 with two touchdowns and one interception. This past week, he failed to impress in the way he did last year. Normally I give you a guy to “go buy.” This week, I’m giving you a guy to keep your eye on. Cousins could end up starting the last three games for the Washington Redskins. For better or worse, he will presumably be auditioning for another team. If he can string together a couple of good games, he could boast some trade value this offseason. Before you scratch your head in wonder of his ability to do so, remember, he faces the Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants in the next three weeks. None of those teams are particularly successful on defense.

IDP- Kyle Wilber, LB DAL

Kyle Wilber isn’t a dynasty asset per se, but he filled in for Sean Lee admirably on Monday night. After the stud linebacker left the game Wilber went on to collect nine solo tackles and an assist. Unless Lee or Bruce Carter fall victim to a long term injury he won’t have any stand alone value but has intriguing plug and play value this week if they can’t get cleared in time on a short week.

NFC North

Toby Gerhart, RB MIN

Adrian Peterson’s availability for this week and the rest of the season has been put in question due to a sprained right foot he suffered in the Vikings’ loss in Baltimore on Sunday.  Head coach Lezlie Frazier indicated that the team’s 3-9-1 record would play a factor in whether he’ll even suit up again in 2013.  Enter Gerhart, who’s rushed for at least 67 yards in three of the last four games while playing behind Peterson.  It’s been reported that Gerhart, who’s averaged 7.9 yards per carry to this point in the season, suffered a hamstring strain against the Ravens.  The severity of the injury is unknown, but fantasy owners should keep in mind that Minnesota’s third-string tailback Matt Asiata has only three carries in 25 career games.  So if he’s available to play on Sunday and A.P. isn’t, we can expect a heavy dose of Gerhart.

IDP- Audie Cole, LB MIN

I think it’s time to take notice to Audie Cole. The Vikings never wanted Erin Henderson in the middle of their defense and after Cole’s impressive showing in weeks 12 and 13 they decided to end the Henderson era in the middle by moving him to the weak side permanently. Over the last three weeks Cole has totaled 35 tackles and a sack. Those numbers put him squarely on the LB2 radar. The Vikings could easily address the position in the draft this year, but for now it’s Cole’s job to lose.

NFC South

Marques Colston, WR NO

Similar to last week’s selection of Roddy White, the Saints’ Marques Colston represents another veteran who just hasn’t played to form thus far in 2013.  However, much like White yet again, Colston came through in a timely manner for owners bold enough to ignore his recent lull in production.  With nine receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns, the New Orleans receiver re-established himself as one of quarterback Drew Brees’ favorite targets.

To that last point, however, it seems foolish to project this type of output for future games.  While Colston is the most targeted receiver on the team (81), the Saints boast four players with at least 70 targets, including superstar tight end Jimmy Graham, as well as running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas.  It’s a true spread the wealth offense. Nevertheless, a seemingly healthy Colston remains a strong bet for WR3 production at a minimum.  He plays the most snaps out of all the receivers, and Brees is averaging 316 passing yards per game.  You never want to get too cute in the fantasy playoffs, and given his “floor,” Colston is unlikely to single-handedly lose you any matchups.

IDP- Lavonte David, LB TB

David put together one of the strongest all around games by any linebacker all year. On a day filled with blizzard like conditions across the country, the Bucs and Bills played the sloppiest game south of Philly. David was responsible for two of the game’s seven turnovers. He finished the day with two interceptions, eight solo tackles, one assist, and two tackles for loss. His timing couldn’t have been better since the playoffs started in most leagues and this type of performance is why he was drafted as a top three linebacker.

eric olinger
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